Genetic algorithm for fitting a mixed Bingham distribution to 3D orientations: a tool for the statistical and paleostress analyses of fracture orientations

The clustering of fracture orientations is important for tectonic studies and for geotechnical engineering. In this study, a real‐coded genetic algorithm was adopted to fitting a mixed Bingham distribution to orientation data by maximizing the log‐likelihood function of the distribution. The maximization is a difficult problem, because the function has multimodality and singularity. It was found that the algorithm was effective for this problem. Given the orientations of dilational fractures, the present method determines not only the stress axes and stress ratio of each of the fracture groups but also the maximum non‐dimensionalized fluid pressure at the time of their formation. In addition, the software calculates the 95 % error ellipses of the concentration axes. The present method found that the orientations of ore veins of the Akenobe Mine, SW Japan, should be partitioned into three clusters. It is shown that two of the groups had distinctive Zn and Sn contents, and that the ore fluids had overpressures only slightly greater than the minimum principal stress at the time of the deposition of Zn‐ and Sn‐rich veins.     

Spectral properties of the X-ray binary pulsar LMC X-4 during different Intensity states

We present spectral variations of the binary X-ray pulsar LMC X-4 observed with the RXTE/PCA during different phases of its 30.5 day long third period. Only out-of-eclipse data were used for this study. The 3–25 keV spectrum, modeled with high energy cut-off power-law and iron line emission is found to show strong dependence on the intensity state. Correlations between the Fe line emission flux and different parameters of the continuum are presented here.     

4U 1957+11: a persistent low-mass X-ray binary and black hole candidate in the high state?

We report on several pointed Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the enigmatic low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) 4U 1957+11 at different X-ray luminosities. The luminosity of the source varied by more than a factor of 4 on time-scales of months to years. The spectrum of the source tends to become harder when its luminosity increases. Only very weak  (1–2  per cent rms amplitude,  0.001–10 Hz  ,  2–60 keV)  rapid X-ray variability was observed during the observations. A comparison of the spectral and temporal behaviour of 4U 1957+11 with other X-ray binary systems, in particular LMC X-3, indicates that 4U 1957+11 is likely to be a persistent LMXB harbouring a black hole and it is persistently in the black hole high state. If confirmed, it would be the only such system known.     

基于雷达资料四维变分同化及云模式的中尺度对流系统数值临近预报试验

基于雷达资料快速刷新四维变分同化(RR4DVar)初始化的三维数值云模式,利用京津冀6部新一代多普勒天气雷达和区域自动气象站观测资料,针对2013年7月4日出现在京津冀平原地区的中尺度对流系统(MCS),开展了数值临近预报试验。研究结果表明,充分考虑雷达观测信息的对流尺度数值临近预报具有很大的优势,但也存在不足:(1)模式能够较好地把握中尺度对流系统的组织发展和移动演变特征,对风暴回波带的走向和尺度特征有较好的预报,但对强回波的强度和位置预报存在一定偏差;(2)模式预报可以反映风暴系统的中小尺度扰动特征,对风暴冷池和出流边界(阵风锋)的发展变化均有较为合理的预报;(3)模式对强降水中心和雨带位置的预报有很大优势,能较好地预报弱降水雨带的分布形势和雨量,但对强降水落区的预报偏大;(4)模式对风暴造成的对流性强降水的预报准确率较高,对0.5—10 mm阈值的降水范围预报偏差比较合理,对10 mm以上降水范围的预报偏大,但是对弱降水风暴的弱回波较强回波的预报性能要好;(5)由于三维数值云模式对京津冀复杂地形的处理不够完善,对山前风场预报偏差较大,造成对山前风暴的发展演变和山前降水的预报偏差较大。     

Towards a 4D topographic view of the Norwegian sea margin

The present-day topography/bathymetry of the Norwegian mainland and passive margin is a product of complex interactions between large-scale tectonomagmatic and climatic processes that can be traced back in time to the Late Silurian Caledonian Orogeny. The isostatic balance of the crust and lithosphere was clearly influenced by orogenic thickening during the Caledonian Orogeny, but was soon affected by post-orogenic collapse including overprinting of the mountain root, and was subsequently affected by a number of discrete extensional events eventually leading to continental break-up in Early Eocene time. In the mid-Jurassic the land areas experienced deep erosion in the warm and humid climate, forming a regional paleic surface. Rift episodes in the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous, with differential uplift along major fault zones, led to more pronounced topographic contrasts during the Cretaceous, and thick sequences of clastic sediments accumulated in the subsiding basins on the shelf. Following renewed extension in the Late Cretaceous, a new paleic surface developed in the Paleocene. Following break-up the margin has largely subsided thermally, but several Cenozoic shortening events have generated positive contraction structures. On the western side of the on-shore drainage divide, deeper erosion took place along pre-existing weakness zones, creating the template of the present day valleys and fjords. In the Neogene the mainland and large portions of the Barents Sea were uplifted. It appears that this uplift permitted ice caps to nucleate and accumulate during the Late Pliocene northern hemisphere climatic deterioration. The Late Pliocene to Pleistocene glacial erosion caused huge sediment aprons to be shed on to the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea margins. Upon removal of the ice load the landmass adjusted isostatically, and this still continues today.     

2003年新疆石河子5.4级地震前地震活动异常分析

分析了2003年2月14日石河子5．4级地震前北天山地震活动图像和地震学参数异常过程。5．4级地震发生在2002年北天山4级地震集中活动区空段，震前12项地震学参数时间进程存在中、短期异常，3项地震波参数出现短期异常。震前3个月乌鲁木齐震情窗出现超警戒线异常。震前10天震中附近地区地震和震群活动显著。     

守初心耕海探洋七十载 担使命披风踏浪砥砺行——中国科学院海洋研究所70年发展纪实

中国科学院海洋研究所是新中国第一个专门从事海洋科学研究的国立科研机构,她的70年光辉历程是我国海洋科技事业从无到有、从弱到强的发展缩影,是新中国海洋科学调查研究自主创新发展历程的真实写照。本文简要介绍中国科学院海洋研究所的主要发展历程,回顾70年来取得的主要科技成就,并围绕新形势下建设海洋大科学研究中心等改革发展举措,讨论和展望研究所的未来发展。     

Climate Change of 4°C Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-to-noise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the inter-model consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.     

Methane-rich fluid inclusions and their hosting volcanic reservoir rocks of the Songliao Basin, NE China

Methane-rich fluids were recognized to be hosted in the reservoir volcanic rocks as primary inclusions.Samples were collected from core-drillings of volcanic gas reservoirs with reversed δ12C of alkane in the Xujiaweizi depression of the Songliao Basin. The volcanic rocks are rhyolite dominant being enriched in the more incompatible elements like Cs, Rb, Ba, Th, U and Th with relative high LREE, depleted HREE and negative anomalies of Ti and Nb,suggesting a melt involving both in mantle source and crustal assimilation. Primary fluids hosted in the volcanic rocks should have the same provenance with the magma. The authors concluded that the enclosed CH4 in the volcanics are mantle/magma-derived alkane and the reversed δ13C of alkane in the corresponding gas reservoirs is partly resulted from mixture between biogenic and abiogenic gases.     

ESTIMATE OF METHANE EMISSIONS FROM RICE FIELDS IN CHINA BY CLIMATE-BASED NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY

1INTRODUCTIONIrrigated ricefieldsarecharacterizedbylargespatialandtemporalvariationsin CH4 emissiontotheatmo-sphere.Accordingly,thereisagreatuncertaintyintheestimate ofCH4 emissionsfromricefields.GreateffortshavebeenmadetoestimatetheCH4 emissionsfromricefieldsandseveralapproacheshavebeendeveloped.TherepresentativemethodsincludetheIPCC(Inter-governmentPanelofClimateChange)region-specificemissionfactormethodandthemodelcalculationmethod.Toimprovethecalculationaccuracy,theIPCCmethodreq…