基于FY-4A卫星和随机森林算法的西藏山南市雷电短临预报方法

针对青藏高原地区雷电短临预报缺乏雷达资料的问题,采用FY-4A卫星多通道数据、欧洲中心第5代再分析资料(ERA5)中的对流指数、闪电定位仪资料等多源监测数据,根据雷电的发生、发展机理,提出了18个关键预报因子,利用随机森林算法建立了适用于西藏山南地区的雷电短临预报模型。统计分析各预报因子在有无雷电天气样本中的概率密度分布与随机森林模型得到的特征重要度指标,结果表明提出的预报因子物理意义明确,建立的模型可信度较高。利用随机森林算法分别对未来10 min、20 min、30 min建立雷电预报模型,并与光流外推预报方法进行对比检验,结果表明：随机森林模型预报效果命中率(POD)、临界成功指数(CSI)均高于光流法,空报率(FAR)也相对较低;未来20 min的随机森林预报模型CSI评分最高,整体预报效果最佳。     

Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by CMIP3 Models

The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP3） were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest （SW） and Northeast China （NE）. The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai （YH） Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV （Generalized Ex- treme Values） distributions. The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions, but reasonable values were calculated for the North China （NC） and NE regions. These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models. Nonetheless, models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.     

四维EOF分析检验数值模式模拟气候及其变化能力研究

文章提出了一个四维经验正交函数(4D-EOF)方法,原理是三维经验正交函数(3D-EOF)与扩展经验正交函数(EEOF)简单的组合,此方法不仅提供空间水平分布特征场及其对应的月际变化特征和年际变化特征,而且还提供空间垂直结构特征.利用这个新方法分析东亚季风国际区域模式比较计划(RMIP)MM5V3模拟的1989-1998年10 a积分结果--包括中国大部分区域(4941个格点,格距60 km)月平均100,500,700,1000 hPa 4个位势高度场(模拟场)及其距平场;同时分析对应的NCAR/NCEP再分析资料(观测场),进而对比两者检验模式模拟东亚季风气候及其变化能力.对比分析结果表明:对于月平均高度场的第一特征向量场,模式能比较准确地模拟出平均气候场的分布及其垂直相当正压性的结构特征;对于月平均高度距平场第一、二特征向量场,模式对于距平场的模拟也较成功,垂直方向有明显的相当正压性特征;月平均高度场及其距平场相应的月际变化和年际变化特征也在模拟中得到较好的反映.本研究表明:4D-EOF具有综合检验数值模式模拟气候及其变化的能力,而MM5V3模拟20世纪90年代东亚气候及其变化能力是令人满意的.     

浓硫酸钠水溶液中的离子对

不同浓度的Na2SO4水溶液的拉曼光谱显示了SO42-的四个拉曼活性带:980 cm-1处的SO42-的对称伸缩振动模式v1带,1 106 cm-1处的反对称伸缩振动模式v3带,448 cm-1处的变形振动模式v2带和617 cm-1处的变形振动模式v4带。482 cm-1处的肩膀峰是由于NaSO4-离子对的形成对448 cm-1的v2带的影响而形成的SO42-的一个新的振动峰。浓Na2SO4水溶液中,水共享离子对[Na+.H2O.SO42-]-是主要的离子对物种。随着Na2SO4水溶液浓度的增加,Na+和SO42-的相互作用增强,NaSO4-离子对所占的摩尔分数增加。     

Al掺杂对尖晶石型LiMn2O4结构及循环性能的影响

用柠檬酸作为螯合物的载体,采用溶胶-凝胶法合成了Al3+掺杂的锂离子电池正极材料LiAlxMn2-xO4,并用XRD、SEM等多种测试手段研究了不同掺杂铝量对粉体形貌、晶体结构的影响。结果表明,800℃烧结可获得单一尖晶石结构的物相。随着Al3+掺入量的增加,LiAlxMn2-xO4的晶格常数变小,晶格更趋于完整,有利于抑制因锂的反复脱嵌而造成结构的破坏。实验表明,当掺Al量为0.05时,首次放电容量为103.8 mAh/g,25次循环后容量还有100.6 mAh/g,容量衰减仅为3.08%。该正极材料具备高的容量和优异的循环性能。     

地理科学与资源科学的国家智库建设

地理科学与资源科学智库建设在地理科学与资源科学发展及学科建设中具有非常重要的战略地位。中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所建所80年来,地理科学与资源科学智库为传播人类文明、保障国家资源安全和持续利用、维护国家和全球可持续发展做出了重大贡献。本文回顾了80年来、尤其是2000年以来地理资源所在高端智库建设方面取得的辉煌成就,以时间为主线,总结了智库建设的重点领域及特色方向,包括综合科学考察与资源环境承载力评价、国家重大区划与规划、国情分析与区域可持续发展、新型城镇化与城市群建设、精准扶贫与乡村振兴、生态文明体制改革与美丽中国建设、“一带一路”建设与国家安全、生态环境保护与科技防灾减灾等方面研究和决策服务;提出要继续瞄准国家发展战略需求,继续提升智库建设在研究所发展与学科建设的战略地位、围绕国家“两个一百年”奋斗目标、对标SDGs实现国家可持续发展目标建好智库,围绕美丽中国与生态文明制度建设、国家重大区域发展战略和应急重大事件建好智库,强化地理模拟技术和智能化技术对智库建设的技术支撑,以智库建设推动地理科学与资源科学建设。力争通过5~10年努力,把研究所建成最具影响力的国家高端智库,成为生产智库产品和支撑国家发展决策的中坚力量。     

热分解法测定水盐体系中硝酸铵和水含量研究

针对复杂硝酸铵水盐体系溶解度的测定,传统分析方法操作步骤繁琐,且试剂较贵,引入一种简单准确的分析方法,即热分解法,对LiNO3-KNO3-NH4NO3-H2O体系和NaNO3-KNO3-NH4NO3-H2O体系中硝酸铵和水的含量进行精确分析。结果表明,热分解温度控制在230～240℃,若控制样品质量为1.5 g,分解时间不低于36 h,能将LiNO3-KNO3-NH4NO3-H2O体系中的硝酸铵和水彻底分解,且随着样品中硝酸铵含量增加,热分解时间也将延长,分析相对误差能控制在0.2%以内。针对复杂NaNO3-KNO3-NH4NO3-H2O体系,热分解温度控制在230～255℃,若控制样品质量为1.5 g,分解时间不少于44 h,且随着样品中硝酸铵含量的增加,相应延长热分解时间,能将复杂NaNO3-KNO3-NH4NO3-H2O体系中的硝酸铵和水彻底分解,分析相对误差能控制在0.2%以内。     

Lake Floor Morphology and Sediment Architecture of Lake Torneträsk,Northern Sweden

Here we present datasets from a hydroacoustic survey in July 2011 at Lake Torneträsk, northern Sweden. Our hydroacoustic data exhibit lake floor morphologies formed by glacial erosion and accumulation processes, insights into lacustrine sediment accumulation since the beginning of deglaciation, and information on seismic activity along the Pärvie Fault. Features of glacial scouring with a high‐energy relief, steep slopes, and relative reliefs of more than 50 m are observed in the large W‐basin. The remainder of the lacustrine subsurface appears to host a broad variety of well preserved formations from glacial accumulation related to the last retreat of the Fennoscandian ice sheet. Deposition of glaciolacustrine and lacustrine sediments is focused in areas situated in proximity to major inlets. Sediment accumulation in distal areas of the lake seldom exceeds 2 m or is not observable. We assume that lack of sediment deposition in the lake is a result of different factors, including low rates of erosion in the catchment, a previously high lake level leading to deposition of sediments in higher elevated paleodeltas, tributaries carrying low suspension loads as a result of sedimentation in upstream lakes, and an overall low productivity in the lake. A clear off‐shore trace of the Pärvie Fault could not be detected from our hydroacoustic data. However, an absence of sediment disturbance in close proximity to the presumed fault trace implies minimal seismic activity since deposition of the glaciolacustrine and lacustrine sediments.     

Biological marker compounds as indicators of the depositions! history of the Maoming oil shale

The Eocene Maoming oil shale from Guangdong Province occurs as a laterally uniform stratigraphic section, typically 20–25 m thick, from which the aliphatic hydrocarbon constituents of six representative samples were investigated using GC and C-GC-MS. The sediments evaluated included the basal lignite, a vitrinite lens from the overlying claystone, and four intervals from the massive oil shale bed. As expected, the lignite and vitrinite differ markedly from the oil shales. The lignite is dominated by bacterial hopanoids and components of higher plant origin, including C₂₉ steroids and triterpenoids such as oleanenes. Visually, the oil shale samples show corroded and degraded phytoclasts, spores, wispy particles of fluorescent organic material attributable to dinoflagellates and, especially in the uppermost sample, colonial algal bodies. The distributions of biological markers in the oil shales show many features in common, notably a dominance of dinoflagellate-derived 4-methylsteroids, and a significant proportion of higher-plant derived n-alkanes with marked odd-over-even carbon number predominance. Overall, they exhibit several features that resemble characteristics of the Messel shale. The hydrocarbons of the lowest shale horizon suggest that there may have been a gradual transition between deposition of the original peat and the subsequent oil shales. The aliphatic hydrocarbons of the uppermost shale are dominated by a number of C₃₁ and C₃₃ botryococcane homologues and other unusual branched alkanes possibly derived from green algae. All of the samples are immature. Overall, molecular and microscopic examination of the stratigraphic succession of the Maoming oil shale suggests a shallow, lacustrine environment within which peats were deposited. This lake subsequently deepened to support abundant algal populations, especially dinoflagellates, culminating in a dominance of botryococcoid algae.     

4A沸石吸附模拟核素Sr,Cs后的组分变化和结构表征

通过4A沸石吸附模拟核素Sr,Cs前后的化学成分分析、X衍射分析和红外光谱分析等手段方法,分析探讨了模拟核紊Sr,Cs在4A沸石的赋存状态,结果表明：4A沸石与模拟核素Sr,Cs之间主要以离子交换的方式发生作用,Sr^2 ,Cs^ 取代4A沸石中的可交换离子Na^ ,占据4A沸石a笼中的6元环和8元环。导致4A沸石的晶胞参数增大,晶格发生畸变。