青海省巴音河流域LUCC遥感调查及驱动分析

利用1988年、2006年的LandSat-TM遥感数据及气候因子数据,用灰色关联度法分析了青海省巴音河流域土地利用/土地覆盖现状、18 a来的变化趋势及其气候驱动,并定性分析了社会驱动。结果表明,1980-2007年间年降水量以12.9 mm/10a的幅度波动增加;日照时数以83.3 h/10a的幅度减少;年平均气温、地温分别以0.6 ℃/10a和0.8 ℃/10a的幅度波动升高。在这样的气候背景下,未利用土地分布最广,占面积的71.43%。1988年至2006年间,土地利用/土地覆盖变化为城镇用地、农业用地和天然草地面积增加;未利用土地面积也增加,其中裸岩、荒地、盐碱地、沙地面积明显增加,分别增加6.28 km2·a-1、5.82 km2·a-1 、2.76 km2·a-1 和0.21 km2·a-1;而不同类型的湿地生态面积呈退缩趋势,其中冰川、湖泊、苇地、沼泽、河流的面积退缩明显,分别减少12.13 km2·a-1、0.43 km2·a-1、0.41 km2·a-1、0.27 km2·a-1和0.21 km2·a-1。可以看出,生态环境呈退化趋势。日照时数和降水与各类型生态面积的关联度变化大,分别在0.667～0.997和0.668～0.986之间,气温次之,关联度在0.669～0.835之间,地温最小,在0.667～0.856之间。大部分类型的生态面积变化其驱动因素主要为降水,其次为日照时数,气温和地温影响较小。不合理的社会用水促进了土地的荒漠化。     

考虑粮食增产计划的哈尔滨地区水资源优化配置(英文)

水资源优化配置是水资源管理中重要且复杂的课题。随着我国"千亿斤粮食增产计划"的提出,作为重要粮食产区的松花江流域面临着水资源能否承载粮食增产的迫切问题。然而,至今该区域鲜有涉及到粮食增产计划的水资源配置研究。本文选取松花江流域的哈尔滨市为研究对象,通过建立多目标规划模型,得到该区域2020年和2030年(p=75%)的水资源优化配置方案。配置结果可将各分区按农业生产潜力划分为4类:第一类为哈尔滨市区。随着城镇化进程加快,哈尔滨市区将会成为农业用水最为短缺的分区。在此形势下,哈尔滨市区的粮食增产空间很小;第二类为五常、尚志和宾县分区。分区内也存在农业用水短缺的现象。但由于短缺程度较小,如能加大节水措施和水利工程措施的建设力度,尚有粮食增产的可能;第三类为阿城、呼兰、木兰和方正分区。伴随着城镇化进程的进一步加快,分区内将会产生一定的农业用水短缺风险。根据分区情况,可通过加强节水措施建设来消除风险。分区内具备一定规模的粮食增产空间;第四类为双城、巴彦、依兰、延寿和通河等水资源条件较好的分区。分区内具备农业大规模发展的潜力。应提高水、土资源开发利用程度以确保粮食增产。研究成果可为制定哈尔滨地区实现区域水资源可持续利用的粮食增产计划提供科学建议和决策依据。     

扇形铅粘弹性阻尼器性能的有限元分析研究

设计了18组不同构造和参数的扇形铅粘弹性阻尼器（SLVD）,采用ABAQUS软件对其进行有限元数值模拟分析,研究了铅芯个数、铅芯直径、铅芯布置形式、橡胶剪切模量、薄钢板与橡胶层厚度比及加载应变幅值对其耗能性能和阻尼特性的影响。分析结果表明：SLVD的耗能系数和等效阻尼比随着铅芯个数的增多、直径的增大而增大,随着橡胶剪切模量、应变幅值的增大而减小;铅芯布置形式应以双铅芯形式为宜,薄钢板和橡胶层的厚度之比应控制在0.4~0.5。     

地震荷载作用下埋地玻璃钢夹砂管的动力响应分析

玻璃钢夹砂管在土木水利工程领域得到了愈来愈广泛的应用,但现有的埋地管道地震响应分析模型大多不考虑管-土动力相互作用,且多针对均质材料管道,无法应用于具有明显层状复合材料结构特征的玻璃钢夹砂管。基于玻璃钢夹砂管的层状复合材料结构特征,建立了完整的埋地玻璃钢夹砂管地震响应分析模型,在数值分析模型中,考虑了管-土间复杂的动力相互作用,以及地震散射波从有限域向无限域的传播。算例分析表明,所建立的埋地玻璃钢夹砂管地震响应分析模型可合理地分析埋地玻璃钢夹砂管在地震荷载作用下的动力响应。     

基于分形的冰塔林形态模拟初探

冰塔林在低纬度高海拔地区的大型冰川上发育广泛, 如何评估其对冰川总体积的贡献意义显著.对冰塔林的形态特征进行了初步探讨, 结果表明: 东绒布冰川冰塔林呈现出分形特点, 其盒维数在1.3～1.9之间, 无标度区间约为40～160 m. 通过构建冰塔林消融模型, 认为冰塔林区域的整体消融率(约50%)不依赖于其地形参数的变化; 估计珠峰东绒布冰川冰塔林体积对冰川总体积的贡献率约为3.7%, 可以忽略.     

最大有效力矩准则约束下的广西罗阳山地震、地质与地貌效应

使用重新调查后的1936年灵山6?级地震的烈度资料,结合罗阳山西北麓和南麓的河流地貌与地质构造考察,参考该地区裂变径迹年代学资料,探讨了罗阳山地区的地质力学环境。重新调查后的极震区等烈度区有北北西和北东2个优势方向区域,这2个区域围绕北北西向的泗州断层和北东向的寨圩断层展布。在构造与地貌调查中发现:罗阳山山体有地貌隆升表现,并得到了裂变径迹证据支持;罗阳山西北麓山前冲沟具右旋活动表现;泗州断层内部破裂面的倾向以南西向为优势方向,并具顺时针旋转和高倾角特征。地震分布显示:寨圩断层和泗州断层交汇部位的东南侧有小地震密集展布现象。经分析后认为,以上构造地貌现象是最大有效力矩准则约束下的地震、地质和地貌效应。      

Comprehensive analysis and artificial intelligent simulation of land subsidence of Beijing, China

Mechanism and modeling of the land subsidence are complex because of the complicate geological background in Beijing, China. This paper analyzed the spatial relationship between land subsidence and three factors, including the change of groundwater level, the thickness of compressible sediments and the building area by using remote sensing and GIS tools in the upper-middle part of alluvial-proluvial plain fan of the Chaobai River in Beijing. Based on the spatial analysis of the land subsidence and three factors, there exist significant non-linear relationship between the vertical displacement and three factors. The Back Propagation Neural Network (BPN) model combined with Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to simulate regional distribution of the land subsidence. Results showed that at field scale, the groundwater level and land subsidence showed a significant linear relationship. However, at regional scale, the spatial distribution of groundwater depletion funnel did not overlap with the land subsidence funnel. As to the factor of compressible strata, the places with the biggest compressible strata thickness did not have the largest vertical displacement. The distributions of building area and land subsidence have no obvious spatial relationships. The BPN-GA model simulation results illustrated that the accuracy of the trained model during fifty years is acceptable with an error of 51% of verification data less than 20 mm and the average of the absolute error about 32 mm. The BPN model could be utilized to simulate the general distribution of land subsidence in the study area. Overall, this work contributes to better understand the complex relationship between the land subsidence and three influencing factors. And the distribution of the land subsidence can be simulated by the trained BPN-GA model with the limited available dada and acceptable accuracy.     

Vegetation and Community Changes of Elm （Ulmuspumila） Woodlands in Northeastern China in 1983-2011

Elm (Ulmus pumila), widely distributed in the north temperate zone, contributes to a special savanna-like woodland in typical grassland region in the northeastern China. This woodland performs a variety of ecological functions and environmental significance, such as decreasing soil erosion, stabilizing sand dunes, preserving species diversity. However, in the last approximate 30 years, the species composition, productivity and distribution area of elm woodland has decreased severely. A series of studies have been carried out to find out whether the climate changes or human disturbances caused the degradation of elm woodland and how these factors affected elm woodland. In this study, undisturbed, plowing and grazing elm woodland were investigated in 1983 and 2011 by using Point-Centered Quarter method. The relationship between vegetation changes and environmental factors was analyzed by Bray-Curtis ordination. The results show that in 2011, species diversity and understory productivity of undisturbed elm woodland decrease slightly compared to those of undisturbed elm woodland in 1983. However, nearly 60% of the species is lost in the plowing and grazing elm woodland relative to the species undisturbed elm woodland in 1983. Interestingly, plowing stimulates the growth of elm and certain understory species through furrowing soil and accelerating soil nutrient turnover rate. Grazing disturbance not only leads to species loss and productivity decrease, but also induces changes in elm growth (small, short and twisted). The mean age of the elm was 29 ± 2 yr in undisturbed and plowing elm woodland, while only 15 yr in the grazing elm woodland. The results of Bray-Curtis ordination analysis show that all sample stands clustered to three groups: Group I including the undisturbed sample stands of 83UE (undisturbed elm woodland in 1983) and 11UE (undisturbed elm woodland in 2011); Group II including sample stands of PE (elm woodland disturbed by plowing); Group III including samples stands of GE (elm woodland disturbed by grazing). The results indicate that the long time disturbance of the plowing and grazing have converted elm woodland to different community types. Climate change is not the primary reason causing the degradation of elm woodland, but plowing and grazing disturbance. Both plowing and grazing decrease the vegetation composition and species diversity. Grazing further decreases vegetation productivity and inhibits the growth of elm tree. Therefore, we suggest that reasonable plowing and exclusive grazing would be favorable for future regeneration of degraded elm woodland.     

Predictive vegetation mapping approach based on spectral data, DEM and generalized additive models

This study aims to provide a predictive vegetation mapping approach based on the spectral data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). GAMs were used as a prediction tool to describe the relationship between vegetation and environmental variables, as well as spectral variables. Based on the fitted GAMs model, probability map of species occurrence was generated and then vegetation type of each grid was defined according to the probability of species occurrence. Deviance analysis was employed to test the goodness of curve fitting and drop contribution calculation was used to evaluate the contribution of each predictor in the fitted GAMs models. Area under curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to assess the results maps of probability. The results showed that: 1) AUC values of the fitted GAMs models are very high which proves that integrating spectral data and environmental variables based on the GAMs is a feasible way to map the vegetation. 2) Prediction accuracy varies with plant community, and community with dense cover is better predicted than sparse plant community. 3) Both spectral variables and environmental variables play an important role in mapping the vegetation. However, the contribution of the same predictor in the GAMs models for different plant communities is different. 4) Insufficient resolution of spectral data, environmental data and confounding effects of land use and other variables which are not closely related to the environmental conditions are the major causes of imprecision.     

沙埋对策勒绿洲-沙漠过渡带两种建群种植物特征与格局的影响

以塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘策勒绿洲-沙漠过渡带为研究区,在半固定沙地、半流动沙地和流动沙地选择了3个50 m×50 m的典型样地,分别代表轻度、中度和强度3种沙埋条件。每个样地内确定植物种类组成,测定两种建群种植物的高度和冠幅,同时对相应的灌草丛沙堆进行形态测量;利用全站仪采集所有植物的空间点坐标数据,运用Ripley’s [K（t）]函数点格局分析,研究沙埋对两种建群种植物特征与格局的影响。结果表明：随着沙埋强度的增加,疏叶骆驼刺和花花柴两个建群种植株数量减小,数量比例从以花花柴为主向以骆驼刺为单优势种群方向发展,死亡植株比例从半固定沙地的14.5%升高到流动沙地的40.3%;疏叶骆驼刺和花花柴植株高度和冠幅从半固定沙地到半流动沙地有所降低,但疏叶骆驼刺在流动沙地中又表现出增加趋势;对应的灌草丛沙堆体积随沙埋强度增加而变大,沙堆形态从多种类型并存向带有风影沙尾的蝌蚪形为主转变;花花柴和骆驼刺均以聚集分布应对风积沙埋的威胁,两种植物的种群间关系并不明显。总体来看,风积沙埋有碍于两种建群种植物的繁殖与生长,但骆驼刺具有更强的耐沙埋能力,特别是在流动沙地中留存下来的骆驼刺植物单体明显大于半固定和半流动沙地。集群分布的植物沙堆往往从基部合并,导致相对密集的植物分布区总与局部凸起的地形相对应,是风沙环境中植物群体与风积沙埋相互作用的结果。