孙疃煤矿102采区防水煤岩柱留设技术研究

依据准北孙疃煤矿102采区资料,通过分析研究矿区第四系、基岩风化带及10煤层顶板水文地质及工程地质条件,利用规程计算、FLAC3D数值模计算以及临近许疃、桃园两矿的实测资料,最终得出采区的冒落带高度为14m,裂隙带高度为45.6m,从而确定该采区的防水煤岩柱为30m,并对其可靠性进行分析论证。该项研究可以使采区10煤层防水煤柱的留设从90m降低到30m,解放煤炭资源量42万t,产生直接经济效益10500万元。     

孔壁地层超静孔隙水（气）压力的形成及其对瓦斯抽排井套管稳定性影响

瓦斯抽排井套管失稳的事故时有发生。为了探索套管失稳机理,应用土力学原理分析了钻井和固管过程中孔壁地层超静孔隙水（气）压力的形成机制;建立了孔壁地层超静孔隙水（气）压力对套管作用的力学模型,该模型包含超静孔隙水（气）压力、地层孔隙率、井液液柱压力、套管抗外挤强度、固管水泥圈使套管抗外挤强度提高的效应系数和固管水泥圈与孔壁岩层界面处的抗张强度等参数;分别就新地层、基岩和煤层的超孔隙水（气）压力对套管稳定性影响的特点进行了分析。结合实例介绍了煤层超瓦斯压力引起套管失稳的分析方法。提出了局部提高套管抗外挤强度、提高固管水泥圈强度、延迟井液排空时间、增设套管扶正器等提高套管稳定性的具体措施。     

Gas hydrate saturation in the Krishna–Godavari basin from P-wave velocity and electrical resistivity logs

During the Indian National Gas Hydrate Program (NGHP) Expedition 01, a series of well logs were acquired at several sites across the Krishna–Godavari (KG) Basin. Electrical resistivity logs were used for gas hydrate saturation estimates using Archie’s method. The measured in situ pore-water salinity, seafloor temperature and geothermal gradients were used to determine the baseline pore-water resistivity. In the absence of core data, Arp’s law was used to estimate in situ pore-water resistivity. Uncertainties in the Archie’s approach are related to the calibration of Archie coefficient (a), cementation factor (m) and saturation exponent (n) values. We also have estimated gas hydrate saturation from sonic P-wave velocity logs considering the gas hydrate in-frame effective medium rock-physics model. Uncertainties in the effective medium modeling stem from the choice of mineral assemblage used in the model. In both methods we assume that gas hydrate forms in sediment pore space. Combined observations from these analyses show that gas hydrate saturations are relatively low (<5% of the pore space) at the sites of the KG Basin. However, several intervals of increased saturations were observed e.g. at Site NGHP-01-03 (S_h = 15–20%, in two zones between 168 and 198 mbsf), Site NGHP-01-05 (S_h = 35–38% in two discrete zone between 70 and 90 mbsf), and Site NGHP-01-07 shows the gas hydrate saturation more than 25% in two zones between 75 and 155 mbsf. A total of 10 drill sites and associated log data, regional occurrences of bottom-simulating reflectors from 2D and 3D seismic data, and thermal modeling of the gas hydrate stability zone, were used to estimate the total amount of gas hydrate within the KG Basin. Average gas hydrate saturations for the entire gas hydrate stability zone (seafloor to base of gas hydrate stability), sediment porosities, and statistically derived extreme values for these parameters were defined from the logs. The total area considered based on the BSR seismic data covers ∼720 km². Using the statistical ranges in all parameters involved in the calculation, the total amount of gas from gas hydrate in the KG Basin study area varies from a minimum of ∼5.7 trillion-cubic feet (TCF) to ∼32.1 TCF.     

Net economic effects of achieving maximum economic yield in fisheries

Improving the economic performance of fisheries is becoming increasingly important in fisheries management, and in some cases, maximum economic yield (MEY) is set as a key management target. However, recent critics of MEY as a management target have argued that a decline in the level of fishing activity necessary to achieve the target will result in a subsequent loss of economic activity elsewhere in the economy and, potentially, a net loss to society. In this paper, an input–output framework is used to estimate the net economic effects of achieving MEY in several Australian fisheries for which there is information on their short- and long-term performances when moving towards MEY. While overall losses were found in the short term, achieving MEY was found to result in a net economic benefit to society in the longer term. Local coastal communities in particular were found to benefit, although some losses were incurred elsewhere in the economy.     

基于GPS的兴隆庄煤矿的近井网建设与十字中线恢复

兴隆庄煤矿近井网和井筒十字中线破坏严重,为了保障煤矿正常的生产需求,利用GPS技术建立了D级GPS近井网,利用三等水准测量确定了近井网各GPS点的正常高程,并利用高精度全站仪恢复了井筒十字中线,进行了垂直度检测,埋设了基桩点。     

基于社区活动的自然保护项目优先度确定

准确选择项目社区及优先干预领域,是成功实施自然保护项目的基础。当前自然保护项目优先社区及活动的选择,主要沿用20世纪80年代早期形成的农村快速评估（RRA）和参与式农村评估（PRA）等方法,这些方法源于农村扶贫开发项目,倡导以社区为主的决策机制,但在自然保护项目中并不能很好地平衡保护和发展的关系,也无法突出自然保护目标和特点。本文在详细分析沿用传统参与式方法不足的基础上,综合考虑周边社区社会经济发展和自然保护区生物多样性保护的需要,结合参与式制图和参与式地理信息系统技术的研究进展,首次提出区位关系分析法。新方法以周边社区在自然保护区内的生产活动为分析对象,构建了确定项目社区和活动优先度的指标及算法。通过调查统计周边社区各类活动的频度f、强度S和面积A,计算社区对保护区的总体影响P,确定项目社区优先度;通过求算项目社区各类活动对自然保护区的影响Pj,结合同类活动对社区社会经济的贡献率Cj或对农户生计的重要值Ij,建立2×2交叉矩阵,确定项目活动优先度。除自然保护项目开发设计外,区位关系分析法可用于保护区的日常监测和管理,对提升保护成效具有参考意义和实践价值。     

Exposure dating and glacial reconstruction at Mt. Field,Tasmania, Australia,identifies MIS 3 and MIS 2 glacial advances and climatic variability

Tasmania is important for understanding Quaternary climatic change because it is one of only three areas that experienced extensive mid‐latitude Southern Hemisphere glaciation and it lies in a dominantly oceanic environment at a great distance from Northern Hemisphere ice sheet feedbacks. We applied exposure dating using ³⁶Cl to an extensive sequence of moraines from the last glacial at Mt. Field, Tasmania. Glaciers advanced at 41–44 ka during Marine oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and at 18 ka during MIS 2. Both advances occurred in response to an ELA lowering greater than 1100 m below the present‐day mean summer freezing level, and a possible temperature reduction of 7–8°C. Deglaciation was rapid and complete by ca. 16 ka. The overall story emerging from studies of former Tasmanian glaciers is that the MIS 2 glaciation was of limited extent and that some glaciers were more extensive during earlier parts of the last glacial cycle. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three modes of climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum in arid and semi-arid regions of the Asian continent

The westerly winds and East Asian summer monsoon play a leading role in climate change of southwestern North America and eastern Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),respectively.Their convergence in arid and semi-arid regions of the Asian continent(AAC) makes the regional climate change more complicated on the millennial-scale.There are still limitations in applying paleoclimate records and climate simulations of characteristic periods to investigate climate change patterns since the LGM in this region.In this study,we adopt two indexes indicating effective moisture and rely on a continuous simulation,a time slice simulation,and numerous paleoclimate records to comprehensively investigate the cli-mate change modes and their driving mechanisms since the LGM in AAC.Results demon-strate a millennial-scale climate differentiation phenomenon and three climate change modes possibly occurring in AAC since the LGM.The western AAC largely controlled by the westerly winds is featured as wet climates during the LGM but relatively dry climates during the mid-Holocene (MH),coinciding with the climate change mode in southwestern North America.Conversely,dry conditions during the LGM and relatively wet conditions during the MH are reflected in eastern AAC governed by the East Asian summer monsoon,which leans to the climate change mode in eastern Asia.If climate change in central AAC is forced by the in-teraction of two circulations,it expresses wet conditions in both the LGM and MH,tending to a combination of the southwestern North American and eastern Asian modes.Precipitation and evaporation exert different intensities in influencing three climate modes of different periods.Furthermore,we identify the significant driving effects of greenhouse gases and ice sheets on westerly-dominated zones of AAC,while orbit-driven insolation on monsoon-dominated zones of AAC.     

西南地区文化产业竞争力研究

中共十八大报告对文化产业的发展提出了新的要求,文化产业作为一个新兴产业,越来越受到各国各地区的重视。西南各省市区位于中国西南边陲,经济欠发达,科技水平较低,但文化资源丰富,民族特色得天独厚,文化产业正在日新月异的发展。然而由于地理位置,资源环境,生态环境等方面的不同导致西南各省市区文化产业发展极其不平衡。因此,使用主成分分析法对西南各省市区的文化产业竞争力进行分析和研究,进而提出西南地区发展文化产业的模式及相关政策建议。