滇西地震的短临综合预报决策研究

本文在短临预报指标研究的基础上，综合考虑各指标在综合预报中的作用，并用层次分析法计算出了参与滇西地震综合预测的各指标的综合权重值，最后进行系统合成，从而对滇西地区的地震的发震时间、地点进行定量化的预测，而对强度预测，而在发震时间预测的前提下，综合考虑指标异常出现的项次及持继时间长短（孕报期的长短），来综合判定预测强度。所得结果，通过１９７５年以来滇西地区２３次Ｍｓ≥５．０级地震检验，时间预测对应率     

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

Evaluating assumptions for seismic assessment of existing buildings

This paper evaluates the American FEMA 356 and the Greek GRECO (EC 8 based) procedural assumptions for the assessment of the seismic capacity of existing buildings via pushover analyses. Available experimental results from a four-storeyed building are used to compare the two different sets of assumptions. If the comparison is performed in terms of initial stiffness or plastic deformation capacities, the different partial assumptions of the procedures lead to large discrepancies, while the opposite occurs when the comparison is performed in terms of structural performance levels at target displacements. According to FEMA 356 assumptions, effective yield point rigidities are approximately four times greater than those of EC 8. Both procedures predicted that the structure would behave elastically during low-level excitation and that the structural performance level at target displacement for a high-level excitation would be between the Immediate Occupancy and Life Safety performance levels.     

Maximum-likelihood ambiguity resolution based on Bayesian principle

 Based on the Bayesian principle and the fact that GPS carrier-phase ambiguities are integers, the posterior distribution of the ambiguities and the position parameters is derived. This is then used to derive the maximum posterior likelihood solution of the ambiguities. The accuracy of the integer ambiguity solution and the position parameters is also studied according to the posterior distribution. It is found that the accuracy of the integer solution depends not only on the variance of the corresponding float ambiguity solution but also on its values. Received: 27 July 1999 / Accepted: 22 November 2000     

最大树法模糊聚类分析在台湾地区地震预报中的应用

运用最大树法模糊聚类分析,将台湾地区1936年至1989年间的35个地震事件分成了三类6型,并运用聚类结果对1990年至2000年的11个地震事件进行检验,得出了比较合理的检验结果,最后用聚类结果对台湾地区2001年的地震趋势进行了预测,得出了与其它手段一致的预报结果.     

农业资源高效利用评价指标体系初步研究

本文从农业自然再生产和经济再生产统一体和整体性的角度出发 ,在阐述构建农业资源高效利用评价指标体系宜遵循的基本原则的基础上 ,通过对农业资源的农业生产行为特征及高效利用途径进行系统分析 ,筛选、构建和设计出了农业资源高效利用评价指标体系 ,并对其中的重要指标进行了讨论。     

EFFECTIVE DISCHARGE CALCULATION GUIDE

1 mTRonvcnox: moareS Aun CoxcmSAJluvial rivers have the pOtenhal to adjust their shaPe and dimensions to all flows that tranSPOrtsediment, but Inglis (l94l) suggested that, for rivers that are in regime, a single steady flow could beidenhfied which would Produce the same bankfll dimensions as the natural sequence of events. Hereferrd to this now as the dondnan discharge.Wolman and Mller (l960) idenhfied that the flow doing most bed material transPort over a period ofyears may be taken tO…     

最大熵谱法在华北地震活动幕式结构分析中的应用

应用定性和定量相结合的方法对华北地区第三、第四活动期Ｍ３≥６地震进行幕式结构分析，发现两个活动期的时间进程、应变释放的图象方面比较相似，由此推断第四活动期应变能大释放阶段已过、目前处于调整阶段。估计第四活动期可能持续到２０２０年前后。     

云南省孟连西7.3级地震前跨断层形变反映

云南省孟连西７．３级地震前跨断层形变反映张兴华，宋金玲（云南省地震工程研究所，昆明６５０２０４）１９９５年７月１０日、１２日在滇西南孟连以西（北纬２２．１°东经９９．３°）连续发生Ｍｓ６．２级和７．３级强烈地震．１９９３年１月─１９９５年５月，云南中...     

岩石蠕变破坏实验研究及其对地震预报的意义

通过对不同温度和围压条件下济南辉长岩的蠕变破坏实验结果和声发射特征分析,本文提出以岩石蠕变破坏应变做为岩石蠕变破坏判据。建立了岩石蠕变破坏应变的经验关系式。依据实验结果得到相应的济南辉长岩蠕变破坏应变参数,进一步探讨了预报岩石蠕变破坏和地震的方法