Prediction of algal blooms using genetic programming

In this study, an attempt was made to mathematically model and predict algal blooms in Tolo Harbor (Hong Kong) using genetic programming (GP). Chlorophyll plays a vital role in blooms and was used in this model as a measure of algal bloom biomass, and eight other variables were used as input for its prediction. It has been observed that GP evolves multiple models with almost the same values of errors-of-measure. Previous studies on GP modeling have primarily focused on comparing GP results with actual values. In contrast, in this study, the main aim was to propose a systematic procedure for identifying the most appropriate GP model from a list of feasible models (with similar error-of-measure) using a physical understanding of the process aided by data interpretation. Evaluation of the GP-evolved equations shows that they correctly identify the ecologically significant variables. Analysis of the final GP-evolved mathematical model indicates that, of the eight variables assumed to affect algal blooms, the most significant effects are due to chlorophyll, total inorganic nitrogen and dissolved oxygen for a 1-week prediction. For longer lead predictions (biweekly), secchi-disc depth and temperature appear to be significant variables, in addition to chlorophyll.     

工程岩体完整性评价的实用方法研究

采用结构面统计与结构面结合特征识别相结合的方法,从结构面几何发育特征和结合特征两方面评价工程岩体完整性。用体积节理数评价结构面几何发育特征,并引入岩体几何完整性系数Ig来表征。根据结构面张开度和充填胶结特征将其结合程度分为5级,给出各级的定性特征描述,并引入结构面结合程度系数Ip对其量化。进而定义了岩体完整性指数将岩体完整性划分为完整、较完整、破碎、较破碎和极破碎5级,并给出对应的定性特征描述和Irm值区间。结合公路隧道工程实例,分别采用文中方法、声波测试法和体积节理数测量法对隧道围岩完整性进行了评价并对评价结果进行了比较。结果表明,文中方法得到的岩体完整性指数Irm与声波测试法得到的Kv基本一致,而体积节理数量测法的评价结果整体上大于声波测试方法。     

Critical perspectives on the evaluation and optimization of complex numerical models of estuary hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics

Numerical hydrodynamic and sediment transport models provide a means of extending inferences from direct observation and for advancing our understanding of estuarine processes. However, their parametric complexity invites questions concerning the extent to which model output can be assessed with respect to data. This paper examines the basis for evaluating the performance of complex hydrodynamic and sediment transport models, with reference to a case study of a muddy meso‐tidal estuary. Sophisticated and computationally‐intensive models should be evaluated using robust objective functions, but conventional measures of fit and model efficiency invoke restrictive assumptions about the nature of the errors. Furthermore, they offer little insight into causes of poor performance. Optimization of tidal hydrodynamic models can usefully combine conventional performance measures with harmonic analysis of modelled shallow water tidal constituents that are diagnostic of the interactions between tidal propagation, bathymetry and bottom friction. Models with similar efficiencies can thus be distinguished and likely sources of error pinpointed. Hydrodynamic models have a predictive power that is rooted in a more‐or‐less complete representation of the physical processes and boundary conditions that are well‐constrained with respect to data. In contrast, fine sediment models rely on a less complete conceptualization of a broader set of processes and, crucially, have a parametric complexity that is unmatched by the quantity and quality of observational data. Their performance as measured by conventional objective functions is weaker and it is important to match the structural complexity of model errors with analyses that can localize the scales and times of poor performance. Wavelet analysis is potentially useful here as a means of identifying aspects of the model that need improvement. The context in which such models are deployed is also important. Used heuristically, what might otherwise be dismissed as weak models can still provide mechanistic support for empirically‐derived inferences concerning specific aspects of system behaviour. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

16种地震科学期刊载文被引统计分析

依据《中国学术期刊文献评价统计分析系统》（V 1.0）,统计分析了2003~2007年16种地震科学期刊的总被引频次、影响因子、被引半衰期、即年指标、Web即年下载率等被引指标和较高频次被引论文。同时对期刊的现状进行了初步讨论,并提出了一些建议,以期为办刊提供一定的参考。     

2014年3月30日湖北省秭归M4.7地震房屋震害特征分析

2014年3月30日湖北省秭归县发生M4.7地震,震中烈度Ⅵ度,地震对震中区的房屋造成了不同程度的损坏。通过对震中区房屋震害情况进行抽样统计和分析,归纳总结了农村两种常见类型房屋的典型震害特征,并对其原因进行深入的分析。在此基础上,对农村民居的场地选择及设计施工等提出一些建议,可以为灾区及其他抗震设防地区的农居建设及政府决策提供依据和参考。     

基于数学形态学的高分遥感影像地震重点目标信息提取

重点目标是抗震救援的关键, 重点目标的破坏大多与目标本身的破坏或破坏前后的形态变化有关。 本文利用数学形态学方法对地物形态特征(包括形状、 大小、 方向等)处理的优势和思路, 构建了重点目标信息提取流程和算法, 并利用海地地震的高分辨率遥感影像, 对震后油罐破损状态的分离和提取、 以及对机场跑道旧损状态的提取。 试验结果表明, 对于形态上能够明显区别于背景的重点目标, 可以利用灰度和结构信息通过数学形态学进行提取。 而且数学形态学算法构造灵活, 处理速度快, 便于硬件实现, 对应急救援的快速处理有一定应用前景。     

风廓线雷达对折射率结构常数的实测分析

大气折射率结构常数（Cn2）是大气中折射率大小的体现,为了改善风廓线雷达（WPR）数据质量,提高WPR数据业务应用的可靠性,对边界层风廓线雷达近1年的实测数据采用归纳对比的方法,分析得到Cn2与温度湿度变化的关系,并总结出成都地区晴朗天气下,四季Cn2量级的变化范围,与理论推导一致.夏天10-12到10-20,春秋10-13到10-20,冬天10-14到10-21,此外,根据降水量大小不同,Cn2提升3到6个量级,获得这些定量的范围,为相关风廓线雷达产品识别提供了方法和依据.     

The FAO global capture production database: A six-decade effort to catch the trend

With data series extending for 60 years, including catch data for almost 1850 species items, and reflecting geo-political, historical and natural events, the FAO capture database provides a service to the community interested in fishery information. Over 600 articles from refereed journals cited the database in the last 15 years. Species included grew significantly in the last decade and an analysis of annual reporting showed more timely data submissions, although the number of non-reporting countries remained stable throughout the years. An evaluation of data quality found over half developing countries reporting inadequately but also one-fourth of reports by developed countries were not satisfactory. This article also provides meta information on historical developments, data sources and coverage, and advice on what should be kept in mind when using the database for trend studies.     

南黄海辐射沙脊群里磕脚11DT02孔沉积相分析及环境演化

11DT02孔位于南黄海辐射沙脊群东北部里磕脚沙脊南坡,通过沉积相分析、粒度统计,结合年代地层数据,重建晚更新世以来里磕脚沙脊的长周期环境演化,分析沙脊成因、厘定沙脊发育年代。研究表明:里磕脚沙脊从下至上由潮滩相、硬黏土相、潮滩相和潮流沙脊相组成。潮流沙脊和潮滩由粉砂、细砂和少量黏土组成,两者均成正偏态分布。潮流沙脊和潮滩在概率累积曲线上分别表现为三段式和四段式分布,以跳跃次总体为主,并呈双跳跃特点。研究区晚更新世经历海平面下降发育潮滩环境,到完全暴露形成标志性的“硬黏土”层;全新世初期经历海侵,研究区复又开始潮滩沉积,随后被海水完全淹没,潮流作用渐强,改造下伏潮滩和“硬黏土”,逐渐堆积成高差最大达30 m的脊槽地形。