A statistical-dynamical method for predicting long term coastal evolution

A new approach to the problem of predicting long term coastline evolution is described. The cumulative effect of shoreline processes is inferred by inverting an extended form of one-line equation. Results from the inversion process are then used to predict future coastal evolution on the basis of past historical changes. The data required are charts showing the historical changes in coastline position. By way of validation, the model is applied to a region on the east coast of the United Kingdom where a 12 year forecast is made and compared against recent aerial survey data. The results are encouraging and suggest that the method has a predictive capability, suitable for strategic studies of regional shoreline evolution.     

Exceedance probability for wave overtopping on a fixed deck

Detailed laboratory measurements were made of the instantaneous free surface elevation in front of a fixed deck and the instantaneous free surface elevation, velocity, and overtopping rate at the leading edge of the deck. The study showed that the exceedance probabilities for the normalized maximum instantaneous overtopping rate and the normalized overtopping volume were predicted by a simple exponential curve. The measured exceedance probability seaward of the deck compared well with the nonlinear theory of Kriebel and Dawson (Kriebel D.L., Dawson T.H., 1993. Nonlinearity in wave crest statistics. In: Proceedings Ocean Wave Measurement and Analysis. American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 61–75). Conditional sampling of the crest heights seaward of the deck gave a normalized probability distribution similar to that of the maximum water level measured on the deck for each overtopping event. However, the values used to normalize each distribution were not the same.     

天津沿海风暴潮灾害概述及统计分析

经分析研究，表明天津沿海是世界上风暴潮最频发区和最严重的区域之一，风暴潮灾一年四季均有发生，除夏季有台风风暴潮灾害发生外，春、秋、冬季均有灾害性温带风暴潮发生。本文分析了天津沿海风暴潮的统计特征，概要介绍了几次严重的潮灾案例，并计算了不同重现期风暴潮和高潮位，所做工作对改善天津沿海的风暴潮预报和防潮减灾工作有所裨益。     

反映自然灾害时空分布的社交媒体有效性探讨

针对如何将社交媒体的虚拟空间上的变化与现实空间中的灾害关联起来的问题,该文基于新浪微博平台,利用台风达维和海葵受灾地区的相关微博数据,从微博的绝对和相对数量变化、台风相关关键词词频变化以及时空分析3方面论证社交媒体与现实中的台风发展进程和受灾情况的关系。综合3方面的结果来看,微博数据与台风的发展有着相当紧密的关联,甚至可以较为准确地反映台风的实时情况,证明用社交媒体数据来分析台风灾情具有一定的有效性和可行性。     

The Impacts of Three-Dimensional Surface Characteristics on Urban Heat Islands over the Diurnal Cycle

This study explores the spatial effects of two- and three-dimensional (2-D, 3-D) urban features in the formation of daytime and nighttime surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) with the help of satellite imagery and LiDAR. Spatially rectified statistical models are used to estimate parameters and understand the spatial spillover effects of urban drivers of SUHIs. In addition, nonlinear relationships among surface temperatures and urban features were included to improve the model fit. The empirical evidence from this study of Atlanta, Georgia, suggests that urban drivers of SUHIs exhibit different and contrasting effects depending on the time of day and their 3-D geometries. The study informs SUHI mitigation efforts by demonstrating that land use policies need to consider the differential effects of land use drivers over the diurnal cycle.     

德州地区冬半年大风气候特征

对德州地区1991～1995年的大民观测资料进行了分析，结果表明，该区春季大风多于冬季，风向具有明显的季节变化，日变化也较突出。还分析了该区的大风成因，认为该区微地形地锐对大风有影响。     

Effects of wave breaking on wave statistics for deep-water random wave train

The experimental studies of the breaking effects on wave statistics for deep-water random waves are presented. It is especially focused on the behavior of kurtosis of surface elevations due to wave breaking. Wave breaking suppresses the maximum limit of kurtosis of the surface elevation, although skewness depends on characteristic wave steepness. The mean instantaneous wave steepness of breaking waves defined using the zero-down-crossing method was much lower than expected from the Stokes waves.     

海湾扇贝性腺发育的生物学零度

采用数理统计的方法，对１９９１～１９９２年海湾扇贝控温促熟实验的有关数据进行分析。得到海湾扇贝在青岛地区性腺发育的生物学零度为６．６℃，产卵的有效积温为１７８．９℃。     

福建省前汛期旱涝年前冬季500hPa高度场特征及其与东亚冬季风的关系

通过对1961～2001年福建前汛期降水与东亚前冬季冬季风强弱与副高强度间的相关性等统计分析表明：前冬季冬季风强（弱）年，前汛期西太平洋副高偏弱（强），福建降水偏多（少），此外，本文利用ECMWF再分析资料，对比分析了旱涝年份前冬季500hPa环流形势差异．其结果显示：旱（涝）年前冬季，东亚大槽偏弱（强），冬季风减弱（增强），副热带高压偏强（弱）。