Spatial statistics for predicting fluid flow through a single rock fracture

Steady-state laminar flow through single rock fractures is predicted in terms of spatial statistics computed from the arrangement of voids and contact areas within the fracture. Within the voids, aperture is assumed to be constant. One statistic measures how often pixels alternate from void to contact area in the rows parallel to the flow direction. Two others measure the dispersion of voids in the rows and columns of the pattern. Fractures with complexity typical of observed data are simulated. Flow through patterns with 80% voids is predicted in terms of a linear combination of the three statistics. Using an extended model involving one of the three statistics, flow through patterns with other void fractions is predicted.The author did this work at the Earth Sciences Division at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California. It is part of a Ph.D. thesis which was submitted at Stanford University.     

Relationship between petroleum reservoir rocks and source rocks

A substantial fraction of sandstones containing commercial quantities of oil are proposed to be in contact with source rocks which produce oil. For these situations the quantity of oil collected in a sandstone is proportional to the area of contact with a source rock of relatively low permeability, rather than to the total thickness of the potential source rock. It is inferred that source rocks along the upper or lower faces of a sandstone should produce more oil into the sandstone than source rocks lateral to the sandstone. Semiquantitative estimates of the thickness or width of required source rock are obtained. The arguments and results are based on published statistical studies and the assumption that a degree of geometrical similarity exists among sandstones.     

Estimating an upper bound to particle size in sediment populations

A sediment-size measure based on an estimate of an upper-size bound is suggested as a useful alternative to the largest sample observation. Two estimation procedures are described which are compatible with the usual sediment sampling techniques that yield very large samples of unknown and variable size. One method requires only the first two order statistics from a single sample, while the other uses the maxima from a number of samples and estimates the upper bound as the location parameter of a Weibull distribution. In the latter case it is shown that the effect of random sample size can be overcome provided the expected sample size is sufficiently large.     

Stratigraphic correlation of subsurface geologic data by computer

Manual, semiautomatic, and fully automatic procedures for correlating subsurface data are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the use of electric-log data, including that of the dipmeter log, in this discussion. The Holgate method is described for its use in fine-tuning or refining gross correlations. A procedure for creating a matrix map for empirically establishing correlation between sets of data is described, and idealized models are shown.This paper was presented at the 38th Session of the International Statistical Institute, Washington, D.C., 10–20 August 1971.     

Patterns of Winter Desiccation in Krummholz Forms of Abies Lasiocarpa at Treeline Sites in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Winter desiccation-induced foliage loss at high-elevation locations is an important determinant of positive carbon balance for trees and thus influences the location of the alpine treeline ecotone. In this study, data are presented that describe the amount of winter desiccation incurred by krummholz growth forms of subalpine fir ( Abies lasiocarpa (Hook) Nutt.) at treeline locations in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, for the winter of 1998/1999. An average 8.68% of the krummholz canopy was lost due to desiccation.
Winter desiccation is not predictable based on any single environmental variable. When outliers are removed, winter desiccation shows a strong correlation with elevation ( r = 0.97). Patch level winter desiccation amounts are, however, highly predictable from elevation, slope, aspect and topographic context when considered together. In general, injury increases with elevation and on more southwesterly facing hillslopes. High slopes and sheltered locations decrease winter desiccation.
Within patches, most winter desiccation is located at the windward edge of the patch. This trend may be modified by the presence of leaders above the mean canopy surface of the krummholz patch, or by local microtopographic features such as dead branches or the proximity of large rocks.
The winter of 1998/1999 was a high winter desiccation year compared to the two previous winters. The winter of 1998/1999 had high snowfall, and meltout did not occur until later than the previous two winters. The extended period of snow cover is hypothesized to be one of the causes of the increased winter desiccation for the 1998/1999 winter.     

桦甸市二调成果质量统计分析

文章运用实测数据和数理统计有关理论,对实验区的第二次土地调查成果进行实测验证,并通过计算和比较分析,得出客观的结果,为以后二调成果的应用提供了相应的依据。     

Identifying insect infestation hot spots: an approach using conditional spatial randomization

Epidemic populations of mountain pine beetle highlight the need to understand landscape scale spatial patterns of infestation. The observed infestation patterns were explored using a randomization procedure conditioned on the probability of forest risk to beetle attack. Four randomization algorithms reflecting different representations of the data and beetle processes were investigated. Local test statistics computed from raster representations of surfaces of kernel density estimates of infestation intensity were used to identify locations where infestation values were significantly higher than expected by chance (hot spots). The investigation of landscape characteristics associated with hot spots suggests factors that may contribute to high observed infestations.     

Serviceability limit state design for uplift of helical anchors in clay

Presently, no displacement-based design methodology exists for helical anchors subjected to tensile or uplift loading. This study investigates the statistical and probabilistic aspects of the load-displacement uncertainty associated with a database of thirty-seven uplift loading tests of helical anchors founded within cohesive soils. Initially, an ultimate resistance model is identified, and the semi-empirical uplift breakout factor statistically characterized. A relationship between ultimate resistance and slope tangent capacity is established, and used to form the basis for normalizing the load-displacement response. Hyperbolic and power law models are statistically evaluated for use in serving as a reference load-displacement model; the hyperbolic curve was selected based on goodness-of-fit statistics. Monte Carlo reliability simulations are used to establish an equivalent-deterministic load factor that associates the selected load factor with a probability of exceeding a pre-determined allowable uplift displacement, given uncertainty in the undrained shear strength, ultimate resistance model, transformation uncertainty, uncertainty in the allowable displacement, and variability in uplift loading. A practical example is provided to show the intended use of this probabilistic helical anchor displacement model.