青岛市海洋战略性新兴产业发展研究

青岛市是我国重要的海洋科技创新基地和海洋战略性新兴产业基地。在分析青岛市海洋战略性新兴产业发展现状的基础上,针对存在的问题,指出应当抓住海洋强国战略向纵深推进的有利时机,围绕深海大洋开发主题,加大对海洋新资源、新空间开发技术创新及产业化的支持力度,巩固和扩大现有海洋产业优势,着力培育新的海洋经济增长点,并提出了加强重点科技项目引进、扶持深海产业、建立离岸海洋开发示范区、健全海洋要素市场等政策建议。     

北半球夏季海洋性大陆区域气候与EP型ENSO:直接与间接联系

利用1979—2009年的NECP资料、Hadley海温月平均资料和CMAP降水资料,采用Kao and Yu(2009)的方法定义了夏季EP型ENSO指数EPI,用合成分析的方法分析了东部型ENSO与海洋性大陆降水的关系。结果表明:EPI与MC(Maritime Continent,海洋性大陆)区域降水变化间存在非常弱的负相关。造成这一弱相关的原因是EPI与MC区域降水在某些年份存在同号变化。在剔除Nio4信号后,海洋性大陆区域降水序列与EPI与存在着同号和反号两种关系。反号关系是通常所认为的,当经典的El Nio(La Nia)发生时MC区域降水出现显著地减少(增多)。此时,沿赤道的异常Walker环流建立了EP型ENSO与MC区域气候间的直接联系。而在同号关系时,菲律宾以东异常加热和SPCZ区域异常冷却引起的西北—东南走向的垂直环流圈削弱了MC区域与赤道东太平洋之间的异常Walker环流所建立的直接联系,或者说,赤道东太平洋区域SSTA与MC区域降水异常的形成是通过SPCZ区域SST的反号异常而产生间接联系的。这种机制的揭示为深刻认识ENSO影响海洋性大陆区域甚至东亚地区气候变动的联系提供了新的线索。     

2015/2016年超强El Nio在成熟/衰减阶段对澳洲夏季风环流与降水异常的影响

2015/2016年发生了超强El Nio事件,Nio3区海温异常在2015/2016年冬季超过了2.5℃,其对全球气候异常的产生具有重大影响。此次El Nio事件可归类为东部型。本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、Hadley中心海温资料及CMAP降水资料等,通过诊断分析,揭示了2015/2016年强El Nio事件盛期和衰减期海温异常对澳洲夏季风环流异常和降水变化的影响及其途径。澳洲地区受此次El Nio事件影响,大部分地区降水显著减少,某些地区降水减少达60%~80%。影响途径主要有:1)海温异常通过Gill型响应造成水平环流异常并进而影响澳洲夏季风减弱。2015/2016年ENSO事件成熟期及衰减期,在西太平洋赤道地区出现海温负异常,导致此处热带地区产生了负异常的热源分布,并由此激发产生了位于赤道北侧和南侧的异常反气旋式环流。位于海洋性大陆南侧的异常反气旋性环流引起澳洲夏季风减弱,从而利于抑制上升运动,造成了澳大利亚降水量显著减少;2)通过赤道中东太平洋地区上升和澳洲地区下沉的垂直环流异常导致澳洲降水显著减少。在El Nio事件盛期,因海温异常偏暖导致赤道中东太平洋地区产生显著的异常上升运动,其补偿性的下沉运动因Walker环流而出现在海洋性大陆地区,以及因澳洲大陆夏季风减弱而出现在澳大利亚中东部地区,由此构成了中东太平洋—澳洲副热带的垂直环流圈,此东北—西南向的垂直环流圈对澳洲降水减少的维持起到了重要作用。另外,中国南方的上升运动与海洋性大陆及澳洲地区的下沉运动之间通过局地经圈环流产生了联系,表明东亚冬季风异常减弱对澳洲夏季风减弱可能存在间接影响。这些结果对深刻认识超强ENSO事件对亚澳季风的影响机理以及寻找澳洲降水预测线索具有重要意义。     

Buyer-driven greening? Cargo-owners and environmental upgrading in maritime shipping

In this article, we examine the relations between global value chain governance and environmental upgrading in maritime shipping. Drawing from interviews with global shipping companies and major buyers of shipping services (cargo-owners), we reveal the key issues and challenges faced in improving the environmental performance of maritime transportation. Contributing to the Global Value Chain (GVC) literature, we compare and analyze the influence of three main external drivers on environmental upgrading in the tanker, bulk and container shipping segments: regulation, cooperation and buyer demands. Our findings suggest that environmental upgrading is more likely to occur when global value chains are characterized by unipolar governance and where the lead firms are consumer-facing companies with reputational risks. Furthermore, environmental upgrading in shipping is not likely to materialize without clear and enforceable global regulation and stronger alignment between regulation and voluntary sustainability initiatives.     

海洋性大陆区域加热异常与长江流域1998年夏季降水重大异常事件的联系

1998年夏季长江流域降水异常增多,发生了严重的洪涝灾害。本文利用1979-2011年的NCEP再分析月平均资料、Hadley中心的月平均海表温度资料和中国160站降水资料,分析了1998年夏季长江流域强降水的成因。结果表明：1998年夏季,印度尼西亚地区为非绝热加热正异常区,而其东北侧海域的非绝热加热为负异常或较小的正异常,由此形成了西南-东北向的异常加热梯度,使得印度尼西亚地区大气受到异常加热,低层辐合,高层辐散,而在热带西太平洋地区则为低层辐散,高层辐合,形成了西南-东北向垂直环流圈。热带西太平洋地区的低层异常辐散气流可作为异常涡度源,强迫出位于南海中国地区的反气旋性环流。同时,来自印度尼西亚北侧的扰动能量在南海地区辐合,有利于南海地区这一异常反气旋环流的维持。南海地区异常反气旋环流西北侧的西南气流,携带大量热带西太平洋及南海地区的水汽,输送到我国南方地区,并与控制中国东北地区的气旋性环流西南侧的西北气流交汇辐合于长江流域,有利于降水异常事件的产生。     

Relationships between glacier and rock glacier in the Maritime Alps, Schiantala Valley, Italy

In the Schiantala Valley of the Maritime Alps, the relationship between a till-like body and a contiguous rock glacier has been analyzed using geomorphologic, geoelectric and ice-petrographic methodologies. DC resistivity tomographies undertaken in the till and in the rock glacier show the presence of buried massive ice and ice-rich sediments, respectively. Ice samples from a massive ice outcrop show spherical gas inclusions and equidimensional ice crystals that are randomly orientated, confirming the typical petrographic characteristics of sedimentary ice. The rock glacier formation began after a phase of glacier expansion about 2550 ± 50 ¹⁴C yr BP. Further ice advance during the Little Ice Age (LIA) overrode the rock glacier root and caused partial shrinkage of the pre-existing permafrost. Finally, during the 19th and 20th centuries, the glacial surface became totally debris covered. Geomorphological and geophysical methods combined with analyses of ice structure and fabric can effectively interpret the genesis of landforms in an environment where glaciers and permafrost interact. Ice petrography proved especially useful for differentiating ice of past glaciers versus ice formed under permafrost conditions. These two mechanisms of ice formation are common in the Maritime Alps where many sites of modern rock glaciers were formerly occupied by LIA glaciers.     

环境变化对长江三角洲地区“北方海上丝绸之路”始发港变迁的影响*

“北方海上丝绸之路”作为中国古代与东亚各国进行贸易往来的重要海上通道,促进了宋元时期海上丝绸之路的大发展并成就了明朝大航海的辉煌,研究其始发港的变迁与原因对“海上丝绸之路研究体系”的完善和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的建设具有重要意义,但目前鲜有研究。基于古代典籍、地方志和历史地图的记载,结合前人对历史时期中国环境变化的认识,对隋唐至明清时期长江三角洲地区“北方海上丝绸之路”主要始发港的变迁与原因进行研究。结果表明: (1)隋唐—明清时期中国长江三角洲地区先后兴起了3个“北方海上丝绸之路”主要始发港,扬州港盛于隋唐,上海港盛于唐宋,明州港(今宁波港)盛于宋元; (2)气候变冷引起的北方少数民族南犯,中原地区经济和政治中心南迁,北方海上丝绸之路的始发港由登州(今蓬莱)迁到了长江三角洲地区; (3)随泥沙堆积,雁形式沙洲发育,河口分汊东伸南移,长江河口海岸由喇叭形的河口湾演化为三角洲,这是引起始发港由扬州港向东迁往上海港、乃至明州港的根本原因; (4)长江河口沙洲的发育,引起了长江扬州港段和上海港段水系的变化,使得2个港作为始发港时,港口的具体位置不断地随河势变化而调整; (5)对外贸易政策的变化亦对始发港的兴衰与变迁起到一定的促进或阻碍作用。     

Optimized support vector regression algorithm-based modeling of ship dynamics

This study contributes to solving the problem of how to derive a simplistic model feasible for describing dynamics of different types of ships for maneuvering simulation employed to study maritime traffic and furthermore to provide ship models for simulation-based engineering test-beds. The problem is first addressed with the modification and simplification of a complicated and nonlinearly coupling vectorial representation in 6 degrees of freedom (DOF) to a 3 DOF model in a simple form for simultaneously capturing surge motions and steering motions based on several pieces of reasonable assumptions. The created simple dynamic model is aiming to be useful for different types of ships only with minor modifications on the experiment setup. Another issue concerning the proposed problem is the estimation of parameters in the model through a suitable technique, which is investigated by using the system identification in combination with full-scale ship trail tests, e.g., standard zigzag maneuvers. To improve the global optimization ability of support vector regression algorithm (SVR) based identification method, the artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) presenting superior optimization performance with the advantage of few control parameters is used to optimize and assign the particular settings for structural parameters of SVR. Afterward, the simulation study on identifying a simplified dynamic model for a large container ship verifies the effectiveness of the optimized identification method at the same time inspires special considerations on further simplification of the initially simplified dynamic model. Finally, the further simplified dynamic model is validated through not only the simulation study on a container ship but also the experimental study on an unmanned surface vessel so-called I-Nav-II vessel. Either simulation study results or experimental study results demonstrate a valid model in a simple form for describing the dynamics of different types’ ships and also validate the performance of the proposed parameter estimation method.     

The U.K. Marine and Coastal Access Bill—A missed opportunity to enhance protection from marine environmental pollution?

The Marine and Coastal Access Bill, when it becomes law, may well be considered a welcome addition to the legislation protecting the marine coastal environment. It is argued, however, in this paper that the Bill could have addressed a number of issues including the matter of shipowners’ privileges, locus standi, the designation and setting up of an environmental fund, and the difficulties associated with places of refuge for vessels in distress.     

Comparative review of marine mammal guidance implemented during naval exercises

This article reviews the types and effectiveness of marine mammal mitigation measures used during some naval activities worldwide. The three main standard methods used to mitigate the potential impacts of naval sonar sound on marine mammals are (1) time/area planning (of exercises/active sonar use) to avoid marine mammals; (2) implementation of operational procedures (e.g. ‘soft start’ - where sound levels are gradually increased over time); and (3) monitoring of animals for the purpose of maintaining an ‘exclusion zone’ around the sound source. Suggestions towards a minimum worldwide mitigation standard are made.