考虑劣化屈服老化裂纹后混凝土水库堤坝排水边坡抗震性研究

针对在水库堤坝排水边坡混凝土裂纹的抗震性研究中,未考虑岩土体抗剪强度参数的劣化屈服效应以及混凝土裂纹的老化,存在抗震性判断结果准确率较差等问题,提出水库堤坝排水边坡混凝土考虑老化后产生裂纹的抗震性能研究方法。模拟强震下边坡混凝土的开裂破坏过程,根据D-P屈服准则,实现对闸墩混凝土材料的屈服判断。采用薄层整体单元模拟和分离式裂纹单元,实现混凝土裂纹的数值模拟,加载地震波后,获取混凝土裂纹的强震响应规律与破坏特征。实验结果可知,本文方法对坝体位移变化的研究精度高,得到的混凝土裂纹扩展范围更为准。运用本文方法对水库堤坝排水边坡混凝土的抗震性研究准确率以及可信度较高,说明本文方法具有一定的可取性。     

深圳市人造旅游资源客源市场分析及开发利用研究

介绍深圳市旅游业发展概况,总结出资源开发利用中存在的主题内容过多集聚、技术含量偏低等主要问题,对深圳市一级、二级、三级旅游客源市场分别进行了回归分析,指出了深圳市旅游业发展的主导方向,应以高新科技为依托,加强对“参与性娱乐层面”和“文化性生活层面”旅游吸引物的创意与营造,重点吸引回头客。提出了旅游业可持续发展的若干建议。     

analyses on the triggering facrors of large quantities of landslides in the upper reaches of the minjiang river,sichuan province

Over the past geological and historical period, tens of thousands of landslides occurred in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, an area which is characterized by alpine valleys and has been densely populated over the past several hundreds of years. Discussing the triggering factor of these landslides is of great significance to geological hazard mitigation and prevention in this region. In this paper, we focus on four aspects of regional rainfall, shape features of landslide slopes, the corresponding relationship between landslide area and earthquake magnitude, and the recurring features of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi. Compared with those in Nepal, both mean seasonal rainfall accumulation and mean daily rainfall for the past 30 years are too low to reach the threshold values triggering landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. Secondly, landslides in the study area are usually absent of inner gorges(canyon topography)on the hillslope toes, which are confirmed in previous studies as typical features of landslides triggered by storms. Thirdly, wide distribution of the landslides in the study area supports our notion of earthquake-triggering because the landslides triggered by storms commonly distribute locally. Fourthly, periodicity analysis of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi provides a few cycles of twenty to thirty years, possibly corresponding to the earthquakes of magnitudes>5.0 or 5.5 which are believed to have caused soft-sediment deformation in the study area. In contrast, like the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the average recurrence interval of the large earthquakes in the study area is 2.6ka. They caused tens of thousands of landslides and provided more coarse silt particles for the nearby lake sediments at least in 330 years for each time. This is consistent with exponential increase of earthquake magnitude from large to medium and of the landslide area with the increased earthquake magnitude. To sum up, we suggest that tens of thousands of landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River were most likely triggered by earthquakes instead of storms. This preliminary viewpoint needs further examination in the future.     

地震立体层析成像的实现方法及效果分析

立体层析成像是一种新的地震反射波层析成像方法,能为叠前深度偏移提供较为精确的宏观速度模型。本文研究了立体层析成像的实现方法,包括斜率与走时数据的拾取、离散速度模型构建和初始化、射线参数的确定、斜率和走时及射线计算以及反演问题解法等,建立立体层析成像的算法流程。并通过对Marmousi模型试验,对立体层析成像运行所需的主要参数,如初始速度模型、拾取数据量、离散网格尺寸、速度平滑权重等进行测试和分析,总结这些不同参数对立体层析反演结果的影响规律,用以指导生产实践。     

乐都地震台前兆观测干扰分析

对乐都地震台2008年1月~2013年10月各前兆测项所受到的环境、人为、观测技术系统和其他干扰进行了分析,调查、了解各类干扰产生的原因及记录特征,有助于及时采取合理、有效的解决措施,提高资料的使用价值和地震前兆异常的识别能力。     

喜马拉雅山北坡冰碛湖坝温度特征及其对堤坝稳定的影响

堤坝稳定性是评价冰湖溃决危险性的重要指标, 而堤坝的温度特征与其稳定性密切相关. 基于2012年11月-2013年9月对西藏定结县龙巴萨巴湖冰碛坝的0~150 cm不同深度的温度观测数据, 分析冰碛坝地温变化特征及其影响. 结果显示: 冰碛坝表层(<20 cm)地温与气温变化一致, 温度日变化常出现白天为正温梯度而夜间为负温度梯度的特征, 全年日均梯度一般为负温梯度(上部温度高、下部温度低); 中层(20~100 cm)和深层(>100 cm)表现为冬季下层温度高于上层温度的正温梯度, 夏季下层温度低于上层的负温梯度逐渐加强, 但地温日变幅逐渐减弱; 中间层地温变化不到气温变化幅度的1/5~1/10; 深层地温无明显的日变化. 冰碛坝的消融率约为2.1 cm·d^-1, 夏季消融深度超过250 cm. 现有夏季消融深度对堤坝的稳定影响有限, 但是湖盆区如果持续升温, 冰碛坝冻土的年消融率和消融深度都将增大, 致使堤坝稳定性下降, 溃决风险增大.     

1396—2005年天山南坡阿克苏河流域降水序列重建与分析

利用2005年采白天山南坡阿克苏河流域的树轮样本,建立了该流域6个树轮年表.相关计算表明,天山南坡阿克苏河流域英阿特河树轮标准化年表与该区域上年8月到当年4月的降水相关最为显著.利用该年表较好地重建了阿克苏气象站1396-2005年上年8月到当年4月的降水序列,经多方面验证表明其具有较好的可信性.分析表明:在过去600 a中,天山南坡阿克苏河流域降水以2～2.5a、12～13 a、45 a、50 a、58 a的周期最为显著;在1584年,1615年,1685年,1722年和1753年前后曾发生了突变,15、19、20世纪天山南坡阿克苏河流域的降水相对稳定.在1416-1990年经历了9个偏湿期及9个偏干期,阿克苏河流域过去600 a来降水有增加的趋势;降水年际变化极不均匀,洪水、干旱、雪灾等自然灾害频繁发生.     

甘肃黄土高边坡可靠度研究

以甘肃省266个黄土自然极限状态坡为研究对象,将其按地形地貌、地层岩性等特征划分为4个亚区,对每个亚区的极限状态坡高与坡宽进行双对数线性模型回归和不同置信度下的统计分析,给出4个亚区不同置信度下坡高与坡宽的相关关系。以1 024组黄土物理力学指标统计结果作为计算参数,用Bishop法的稳定系数计算公式建立极限状态方程,利用 Monte Carlo法对各亚区不同置信度下的边坡进行可靠度模拟,系统分析了坡高、坡度、参数变异性对失效概率的影响,以及失效概率与稳定系数的关系。结果表明,临洮-永靖亚区边坡坡度低于31.5?,失效概率可控制在10%以下;陇东亚区、兰州-定西-会宁亚区和天水-秦安-通渭亚区在强度参数变异系数取当地平均水平,稳定系数为1.3情况下失效概率在10%以内,稳定系数为1.2情况下,失效概率多在20%以内。     

HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT: UNPREDICTABILITY AND THE PRIMACY OF PLACE

Landscapes, environments, and ecosystems (i.e., places) are historically and spatially contingent and therefore unique. Generalizations and laws are based on “all other things being equal.” Owing to historical and spatial contingency, all other things are never completely equal and often do not approach that ideal closely enough to allow for reliable prediction. The problem is illustrated by examining effects of grazing and fire suppression on transitions between grass and woody vegetation communities. In three different environments in the southern United States (central Texas, southwestern Virginia, and eastern North Carolina), three different relationships exist between grazing and fire regime, and vegetation. Other examples are common in the geographic and environmental literature. This suggests that the search for a single applicable generalization or predictive model of a given human-induced environmental change that can be applied without accounting for the particular characteristics of places may be futile. Several general ways to address this issue are suggested. First is the recognition that place matters. Conditions specific to a location or region will influence what, how, or even if generalizations apply. Second is the adoption of a “demographic” approach. This is based on the idea that for places, like people, it is possible to make aggregate or probabilistic generalizations or predictions, but these cannot be applied to deterministic prediction of individuals. Third is a synoptic approach based on forecasting not via simple cause-effect relationships, but based on a typology of situations that recognizes and incorporates the unique characteristics of site and situation. Several converging threads of inquiry in geography and geosciences explicitly or implicitly address the issue of historical and spatial contingency. [Key words: landscape, environment, place, prediction.]     

Modelling dynamic deformation in natural rock slopes and underground openings with DDA: review of recent results

We present validations and applications of the numerical Discontinuous Deformation Analysis method (DDA) for different cases of dynamic loading in the context of rock mass deformation. Following a review of 2D and 3D-DDA validations against analytical solutions for single and double face sliding, we present dynamic DDA applications in natural rock slopes and underground openings. Modelling dynamic rock slope deformation is demonstrated using the case of Masada rock slopes, with some new findings on the dynamic deformation of overhanging cliffs in general. Modelling underground deformation is demonstrated using the case of an active open pit mine in Israel developed in a rock mass containing multiple karstic caverns. The DDA method is shown here to be a powerful numerical tool for modelling dynamic rock mass deformation when the interaction between multiple discrete elements dictates the expected global deformation.