芦山地震：一个成功的中期预测案例

2013年4月20日MS 7.0级芦山地震是2008年汶川地震以后龙门山断裂带的又一个灾难性的地质事件。文中回顾了对芦山地震的成功中期预测并给出了预测的依据。2012年11月25日上午,中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会讨论中国西南地区中期地震预测问题。专业委员会主任耿庆国回顾了2012年4月作出的中期预测,认为2012年5月至2013年5月期间,在我国西南地区可能存在MS 7~8级地震。参加会议的委员们同意这一时间预测和震级预测,但是在震中位置预测方面存在不同意见。文章第一作者在会上作了一个报告,并展示了确切的震中预测位置图,即位于四川省雅安与康定连线的中间位置。这一预测的依据主要有两个方面：一方面,雅安西侧与汶川两地,具有两个特征相同的独立的卫星重力局部高异常;二是汶川(5·12)大震只是释放了龙门山断裂带北东段的能量和应力,这导致能量和应力在龙门山断裂带南西段,特别是南西端与重力异常突变叠加区(即中上地壳密度突变区)的加速积累和集中。芦山地震震中位于雅安芦山,与预测震中位置仅相差80 km,发震时间在2013年5月前。芦山地震中期预测的成功给予我们很多启示。作为一种地质过程,地震应该有其自身的规律可循;成功的地震预测需要多方面观测信息的综合分析,正是基于此,目前迫切需要国家的或者国际的具有综合分析经验的专家组和有效的前兆信息平台;卫星重力异常数据的处理和更新将有助于缩小强震预测的包围圈。     

Co- and post-seismic surface deformation and gravity changes of Ms7.0 Lushan,earthquake

On April 20, 2013, an earthquake with mag- nitude 7.0 occurred in the southwest of the Longmenshan fault system in and around Lushan County, Sichuan Province, China. This devastating earthquake killed hun- dreds of people, injured 10 thousand others, and collapsed countless buildings. In order to analyze the potential risk of this big earthquake, we calculate the co- and post-seismic surface deformation and gravity changes of this event. In this work, a multilayered crustal model is designed, and the elastic dislocation theory is utilized to calculate the co- and post-seismic deformations and gravity changes. During the process, a rupture model obtained by seismic waveform inversion （Liu et al. Sci China Earth Sci 56（7）： 1187-1192, 2013） is applied. The time-dependent relaxation results show that the influences on Lushan and its surrounding areas caused by the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake will last as long as 10 years. The maximum horizontal displacement, vertical uplift, and settlement are about 5 cm, 21.24 cm, and 0.16 m, respectively; the maximal positive and nega- tive values of gravity changes are 45 and -0.47 μGal, respectively. These results may be applied to evaluate the long-term potential risk caused by this earthquake and to provide necessary information for post-earthquake reconstruction.     

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Variations of shear wave splitting in the 2013 Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake region

In this paper, variations of shear wave splitting in the 2013 Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake sequence were studied. By analyzing shear wave particle motion of local events in the shear wave window, the fast polarization directions and the delay time between fast and slow shear waves were derived from seismic recordings at eight stations on the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone. In the study region, the fast polarization directions show partition characteristics from south to north. And the systematic changes of the time delays between two split shear waves were also observed. As for spatial distribution, the NE fast polarization directions are consistent with the Longmenshan fault strike in the south of focal region, whereas the NW fast direction is parallel to the direction of regional principal compressive stress in the north of focal region. Stations BAX and TQU are respectively located on the Central and Front-range faults, and because of the direct influence of these faults, the fast directions at both stations show particularity. In time domain, after the main shock, the delay times at stations increased rapidly, and decreased after a period of time. Shear-wave splitting was caused mostly by stress-aligned microcracks in rock below the stations. The results demonstrate changes of local stress field during the main shock and the aftershocks. The stress on the Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake region increased after the main shock, with the stress release caused by the aftershocks and the stress reduced in the late stage.     

ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF DURATION AND PERIOD OF GROUND MOTION OF THE LUSHAN EARTHQUAKE BASED ON THE STATION RECORDS

Based on 60 records from the 20 stations within 100km to the epicenter of Lushan earthquake, the predominant period, period of peak response spectrum, duration of ground motion, and source duration are investigated. By the study, we conclude that within 100km to the epicenter, the scope of predominant period is 0.013~0. 275s in EW, NS and UD direction; the scope of period of peak response spectrum for 5% damping ratio is 0.03~0.65s; the scope of 90% ground motion durations is 5. 1~35. 9s; the scope of averaging source duration is 6.41 (EW), 6.05 (NS) and 5.47s (UD). Furthermore, based on the ground motion duration calculated by 20 stations dada, the predictive curve and equation of ground motion duration is regressed and compared with the recent equation of ground motion duration by Bommer (2009). We find that the ground motion durations of most stations are larger than predictively mean value by Bommer (2009), which means that the source effect of Lushan earthquake is relatively larger. Lastly, by the contour figure of ground motion duration and source duration, we conclude that the directivity character of duration is relatively apparent in NE direction. The relatively larger source duration and ground motion duration in NE direction indicate more energy release in the main shock of Lushan earthquake, which perhaps causes the relatively less aftershocks in this direction. The duration has no hanging wall effect, which perhaps results from the blind-reverse fault structure of Lushan earthquake.     

芦山7.0级地震近断层地震动的方向性

基于芦山7.0级地震中断层距小于100 km自由场台站的强震动记录观测数据,研究此次地震近断层地震动的方向性特性,并探讨方向性特性与震源破裂机制、断层距离和空间方位的关系.研究结果表明：（1）与距断层较远记录不同,近断层地震动在不同的观测方向上表现出显著的强度差异,存在明显的极大和极小作用方向.在不同的方向上,最大加速度反应可达最小值的4倍以上;（2）这种方向性差异在T=1.0 s以上的长周期段更为明显,在T=0.1 s以下的短周期段,地震动随方向变化的差异较小.地震动强度随方向变化的差异随周期增大而增大,不同方向上的加速度反应谱值的最大值与最小值之比从周期T=0.01 s时的约1.7增大到周期T=10 s时的约2.4;（3）在距离断层约35 km以内,地震动具有明显方向性,地震动卓越方向具有垂直断层走向的特征,随断层距的增大,这种方向性不明显.从不同方向上地震动强度的差异来看,随断层距增大,地震动强度在不同方向上的差异在减小,表现为各个周期的最大值/中值和最大值/最小值比值均随断层距离增大缓慢减小;（4）近断层地震动的方向性特性主要受断层上、下盘的相对运动所控制,其在长周期的卓越方向与水平同震位移方向一致,且该卓越方向上的地震动强度绝对大小与地震破裂造成的静态位移明显相关,表现为地震动强度随水平同震位移的增大而增大.

     

芦山7.0级地震前川滇地区中等地震密集活动

通过分析川滇地区12组4~5级地震密集活动及其对应强震的时空关系,研究结果表明:中等地震密集活动中的最大地震震级与后续强震震级不相关;对应地震与密集活动的时间间隔多在半年内;利用4、5级地震密集活动作为M≥6.7地震1年尺度的预报异常,预报效能R值为0.258 5;在云南地区,强震多发生在密集地震集中区,而四川的强震多发生在4、5级地震不活跃区。     

庐山重力基线场稳定性分析

利用2018年庐山重力短基线场绝对重力和相对重力观测资料,基于绝对重力控制下的相对重力联测方式对庐山基线场的稳定性进行了分析。结果表明：庐山基线场2015～2018年测段重力变化为-11.6～13.4μGal、均值-0.962μGal,较小的重力变化表明庐山短基线重力场较稳定;2000～2018年测段重力变化为-39～33.5μGal、均值-0.275μGal,总体以G16测点为界呈分化特征,上山侧（G16～JZ04）重力变化较平缓（约-3 μGal）,下山侧（G03～G16）因G04、G14测点重力值变化显著（分别为-24.95、-18.5μGal）,导致相邻测段重力变化剧烈;测段重力变化与段差比值（B）为1.19×10^-4～3.58×10^-3;庐山及其周边地区由地表垂直运动引起的重力变化速率为0.7543±0.16μGal/a;近期研究区地震活动性呈震级小、沿断裂带集中分布特征;重力变化对相对重力仪一次项系数标定结果影响较大（正比于B值）,对校正精度影响小,利用以往重力观测成果进行一次项系数标定时,绝对重力测段JZ02～JZ04误差影响小于最大重力段差测段,定期维护和复测是保障高精度重力短基线场的有效途径。     

低温热年代学数据对龙门山推覆构造带南段新生代构造活动的约束

龙门山位于青藏高原东边缘,地形陡变,剥蚀作用强烈.近年来先后经历了2008年汶川MW7.9地震和2013年芦山MS7.0地震,多位学者对龙门山地区做了大量的低温热年代学研究.文中在研究程度相对薄弱的龙门山南段补充了4个锆石裂变径迹年龄和4个磷灰石裂变径迹年龄,结合前人的低温热年代学数据结果得出,宝兴杂岩从新生代早期开始快速冷却,降温幅度超过225℃,而龙门山中段的彭灌杂岩降温幅度为185 ～225℃.宝兴杂岩的4个裂变径迹年龄分布在2.7 ～5Ma,相对彭灌杂岩较年轻,表明晚新生代以来宝兴杂岩的冷却速率要高于彭灌杂岩.在地表温度为15℃和古地温梯度为30℃/km的假设下,宝兴杂岩距今3～5Ma以来的平均剥露速率为0.63 ～ 1.17mm/a.低温热年代学数据揭示出龙门山中段的差异剥蚀集中在北川-映秀断裂和江油-灌县断裂上,而南段的差异剥蚀分散在更宽范围内的双石-大川断裂(南、北2个分支)及其东侧的断层和褶皱.     

2013年芦山7.0级地震一年尺度预测的回顾性研究——基于三性法、静中动和垂震底继模式

对2013年中期地震预测的研究结果(一年尺度)进行了阐述与分析。该预测综合了三性法判据、静中动判据和垂震底继模式,给出了2013年左右在鲜水河断裂带上发生7级以上大震的可能性很大的结论。重点预测了两个具体发生的区域,预测的区域与2013年4月20日芦山7.0级地震的震源区相差70～80km左右。预测结果震级与时间吻合,但地点上发生了偏离。文中重点回顾研究了基于三性法,静中动、垂震底继方法的预测过程。