Volcanic tremor-source mechanisms and correlation with eruptive activity

Signal characteristics and intensity patterns of volcanic tremor are discussed with regard to eruption phenomena. Although a generally valid relationship cannot be given, volcanic tremor is strongly correlated to the fluid dynamics of the volcano. A major difficulty in the interpretation of volcanic tremor is the lack of an appropriate source model. It is assumed that flow transients of quite different kinds act as seismic sources. The significant correlation of volcanic tremor to external forces (barometric pressure, rain-fall loading, earth tides) is discussed and included in a relation with magma-flow instabilities. Two-phase (liquid-gas) flow instabilities play an essential role in the origin of volcanic tremor and, possibly, in the occurrence of volcanic eruptions. A model is discussed, in which one cause of tremor is seen in self-sustained pressure oscillations following transitions between subsonic and supersonic two-phase magma flow (modified Steinberg and Steinberg model).     

地形对大气低频振荡影响的数值研究

使用五层全球谱模式研究地形对月、季尺度低频振荡的影响。该模式为三角形截断，截断波数为１０，并含有较为完善的物理过程参数化，对分别用有地形和无地形模式来模拟的低通滤波资料进行了分析和比较。结果表明，地形强迫产生的月、季尺度低频波列有明显的季节特征。北半球夏季由地形影响产生的热带热源是南北半球低频波列的源。模拟结果进一步指出北半球地形强迫产生的波列扰动可以引起赤道纬向流的异常，这种纬向流的瞬变强迫可以     

热带对流活动与低频波流相互作用

利用ＥＣＭＷＦ客观分析资料，使用Ｂａｔｔｅｒｗｏｒｔｈ带通滤波技术，应用诊断分析的方法研究了１９８３／１９８４和１９８６／１９８７两年冬季中纬度地区低频波流间的相互作用特征，强调了热带地区对流活动的差异对于这种相互作用的重要影响。     

Change in seismic activity in the Tokai region related to weakening and strengthening of the interplate coupling

We investigate the relationship between changes in seismicity and crustal deformations in the Tokai region. We describe how seismicity in the subducted slab increased remarkably in the fall of 2000 and decreased in the fall of 2001, while in contrast, the crust seismicity decreased in the fall of 2000 and increased in the fall of 2001. We note that the trend of horizontal displacement at GPS stations changed coincidentally and we propose interpreting the increase and decrease in seismic activities and the changes in crustal deformations in a unified way based on changes in the state of the interplate coupling, i.e., the back-slip rate was reduced in the fall of 2000 and was partially restored in the fall of 2001. We explain why reduction of the back-slip rate increases seismogenic stress in the slab and decreases stress in the crust. We also describe the substantial positive dilatation observed in the region around Mt. Fuji in the fall of 2000 and suggest that the remarkable increase of low-frequency earthquakes beneath Mt. Fuji in October 2000 may have been caused by deceleration of the converging motion of the Izu micro-plate with the Eurasian plate. The decrease of the subduction velocity of the Izu micro-plate on the Suruga Trough in late 2000 would also have contributed to weakening of the interplate coupling beneath the Tokai region, since reduction of the relative velocity between overriding and subducting plates produces the same effect on the plate interface as a diminishing back-slip rate. However, subduction of the Izu micro-plate on the Suruga Trough was accelerated in early 2003, which may have caused increases in both slab and crust seismicities in that period.     

灰色系统理论用于矿震极值预测的初步研究

研究应用灰色系统理论,结合矿震极值数据,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,在此基础上进一步应用残差修正主模型,由构造出的新模型推测出未来的矿震极值。预测结果有较高的精度,为矿震极值预测提供一种可行性方法。     

华南持续性强降水期间低频非绝热加热对低频环流的影响

利用站点降水资料和再分析资料针对华南地区5—8月的持续性强降水过程,分析了低频异常非绝热加热的时空分布特征及其对低频大气环流的可能反馈作用。得到如下结论:5—6月和7—8月华南持续性强降水期间10—30 d低频非绝热加热的演变特征有所不同,5—6月持续性强降水发生前低频非绝热加热大值区从30°N(107°—115°E)以北向南传播发展至华南地区,而在7—8月降水前非绝热加热大值区从中国南海中部向西北方向传播,并在降水最强盛期到达华南。异常环流型控制着持续性强降水的强度和位置,从而决定异常凝结潜热的演变特征。异常凝结潜热则是通过影响涡度倾向变化而对大气环流有一个反馈作用。对于发生在华南5—6月和7—8月的这2组持续性强降水过程,当降水处于发展阶段,在低频非绝热加热作用项和低频涡度平流项的共同作用下,华南上空中层存在显著的10—30 d低频正涡度倾向变化,有利于低频气旋式环流的进一步发展。非绝热加热作用项主要由加热率的垂直梯度决定,涡度平流项则与气候背景风场有密切关系。5—6月持续性强降水期间涡度平流项位于非绝热加热项东侧,而7—8月持续性强降水期间涡度平流项位于非绝热加热项北侧。在持续性强降水的衰亡期,由于非绝热加热项和涡度平流项转为负值,华南被负涡度倾向变化控制,低频气旋式环流迅速消亡。     

2017年秋季河南罕见连阴雨天气特征及成因分析

2017年8月下旬至10月中旬河南发生了近14a来罕见秋季连阴雨过程。利用1961—2017年河南省地面气候整编资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用相关分析法、T检验、小波分析及带通滤波等方法,对此次连阴雨过程的大气环流特点进行分析。结果表明:2017年秋季河南连阴雨期间,乌拉尔山高压脊、贝加尔湖低槽和西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期偏强且长时间维持;东欧和里海—巴尔喀什湖两个地区是此次连阴雨过程的上游关键区域,东欧地区大气环流具有准双周到30d的振荡周期,里海—巴尔喀什湖地区具有4—8d的振荡周期。东亚200hPa急流轴东西跨度和急流核的极大风速较常年同期偏大;急流区西南部的辐散区在河南上空有抽吸作用,有利于降水的发生;高空急流纬向风速有三次加强过程,与三次连阴雨过程相对应。在不同的连阴雨阶段水汽输送源地和输送通道不同,三个阶段的水汽来源分别为印度洋、中国南海和西太平洋。     

华北平原夏季降水准双周振荡与低频环流演变特征

利用华北地区夏季日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析环流资料,采用功率谱分析、Butterworth带通滤波等方法,对华北地区夏季降水低频特征与大气低频环流演变进行了综合分析。结果表明:(1)华北地区夏季降水存在低频特征,主要以准双周振荡为主。(2)500 h Pa高度场大气低频环流表现为闭合的高、低压系统;850 h Pa低频流场演变要复杂一些,但它们伴随高层低频系统移动会发生有规律的变化。500 h Pa高度场上,在35°N以北,低频系统向东移动,有时也从鄂霍次克海附近向西的扩展;在35°N以南,低频系统表现为由西北太平洋向西北移动,然后再向西移动。华北夏季降水主要是直接受中高纬度低频系统影响,低纬度低频系统很难直接影响华北地区,但它们可以通过偏南偏北气流的变化影响向华北地区的水汽输送或冷空气活动,进而加强或减弱华北地区的降水强度。(3)当500h Pa 40°N-60°N范围内有低频低压从西向东移近华北地区,并诱发850 h Pa气旋或切变线生成,从而在华北地区出现明显的降水过程;当500 h Pa低频低压向东移出而后部低频高压移来时,华北地区低层850 h Pa流场就会转为辐散气流或为一致的偏北气流,降水过程结束。(4)华北地区降水发生时,高、低空低频环流有较好的配合。     

Reventador Volcano 2005: Eruptive activity inferred from seismo-acoustic observation

Reventador Volcano entered an eruptive phase in 2005 which included a wide variety of seismic and infrasonic activity. These are described and illustrated: volcano-tectonic, harmonic tremor, drumbeats, chugging and spasmodic tremor, long period and very long period events. The recording of this simultaneous activity on an array of three broadband, seismo-acoustic instruments provides detailed information of the state of the conduit and vent during this phase of volcanic eruption. Quasi-periodic tremor at Reventador is similar to that observed at other volcanoes and may be used as an indicator of vent aperture. Variations in the vibration modes of the volcano, frequency fluctuations and rapid temporal fluctuations suggest the influx of new material, choking of the vent and possible modification of the conduit geometry during explosions and effusion over a period of six weeks.