A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.     

2012年1月、2016年1月东亚两次极端严寒事件及其与北极增暖的可能联系

自20世纪80年代后期以来,我国频繁出现暖冬,直到2004年以后这种状况出现明显的变化,冷冬出现的频次明显增多了。在全球增暖、北极海冰减少明显的背景下,冬季极端严寒的强度非但没有减弱反而似乎还在增强,造成灾害性的影响也越发引人关注。在上述背景下,2012年1月、2016年1月在东亚发生了两次极端严寒事件。本文的目的就是通过合成和相关分析,研究这两次极端严寒事件演变的主要特征,及其与北极增暖的可能联系。这两次极端严寒事件的环流演变截然不同。对于2012年1月的极端严寒事件,海平面气压异常主要呈现由东向西传播,在演变过程中,阿留申区域海平面气压超前西伯利亚高压,因此大气环流的下游效应起主要作用。对于2016年1月的极端严寒事件,冷空气主要由西北向东南传播。两次极端事件的主要降温区域的移动路径截然不同。2012年1月冷空气爆发以后主要在亚洲大陆中、高纬度维持并向西传播,其南传影响亚洲低纬度区域明显弱于2016年的冷事件。而2016年1月的主要降温区以沿东亚向南移动为主,强降温区直接南下至热带区域。两次极端严寒事件爆发前期大气环流演变的共同点:中、高纬度区域环流能量交换活跃,表现为中纬度高度脊加强北伸,从而把较低纬度的暖空气输送至北极区域,高纬度区域对流层中层呈现多极结构。这种多极空间结构是亚洲冷空气向南爆发的重要前兆信号。冬季北极阶段性增暖过程首先是中纬度高度脊加强北伸的结果。对影响东亚的极端严寒过程,乌拉尔附近区域的高压脊以及位于北美西部的高压脊加强北上、协同演变是至关重要的。2016年1月东亚极端严寒过程与2015年12月末北极快速增暖没有必然联系。     

2～18 GHz超宽带低噪声放大器芯片研制

低噪声放大器在射电天文望远镜接收机中是一个重要的前端组件,其性能对接收机的灵敏度和噪声有至关重要的影响。采用OMMIC公司70 nm GaAs mHEMT工艺研究和设计了一款工作频率为2~18 GHz的超宽带单片微波集成低噪声放大器芯片,芯片面积为2 mm×1 mm。放大器电路采用三级级联放大、双电源供电拓扑结构,常温在片测试结果显示,全频带增益大于28 dB,噪声温度平均值为93 K,直流功耗150 mW,无条件稳定。该放大器芯片覆盖了射电天文S,C,X,Ku 4个传统观测波段,适用于厘米波段超宽带接收前端和毫米波段超宽带中频放大模块。     

陆基远程和超远程无线电导航系统发展现状与趋势

高频电磁环境日益复杂,为了提高定位导航授时(PNT)系统的可靠性,需要研发不依赖于卫星导航的陆基无线电导航系统.陆基无线电导航系统具有工作频率低、发射功率大等特点,可靠性高,不易被干扰,可以作为卫星导航系统的备份,因此,发展建设陆基无线电导航系统对于构建稳健可靠的国家PNT体系、保障国家安全和国民经济的发展具有重要意义.文中就国内外陆基远程及超远程无线电导航系统的发展现状及趋势进行了分析.     

Regional hydrologic mapping of flows in stream networks

River low flow (LF) is an important hydrological characteristic used in management of the quantity and quality of water resources. A common way to transpose at-station low flow quantiles to ungaged locations involves development of regional multivariate regression models. In site selection studies of water control facilities, need arises to automate the mapping of LF characteristics onto the stream network in a continuous manner. This would allow estimation of LF at any desired ungaged location. A mapping algorithm is introduced that determines the value of regression model's independent variables (input components) over the drainage area of each stream pixel and calculates the flow (output). The mapping algorithm relies mainly on the digital elevation model (DEM) and its derivatives, such as flow direction and flow accumulation. Furthermore, the contribution of each independent variable of the regional model to the total flow may be plotted to represent the flow profiles along the streams. A case study involving LF mapping in rivers of Gilan province, Iran, where LF quantiles are required for issuing water withdrawal permits as well as maintaining water quality standards, is also described in the paper. Overall, the maps and profiles of flow statistics in the region of interest provide convenient visualization and assessment tools for water resource and environmental engineers. The transposition algorithm may also be applied in regional mapping of other flow characteristics such as flood or average flows.     

GeoSurveillance: a GIS-based system for the detection and monitoring of spatial clusters

This article introduces a software package named GeoSurveillance that combines spatial statistical techniques and GIS routines to perform tests for the detection and monitoring of spatial clustering. GeoSurveillance provides both retrospective and prospective tests. While retrospective tests are applied to spatial data collected for a particular point in time, prospective tests attempt to incorporate the dynamic nature of spatial patterns via analyzing time-series data to detect emergent clusters as quickly as possible. This article will outline the structure of GeoSurveillance as well as describe the statistical cluster detection methods implemented in the software. It concludes with an illustration of the use of the software to analyze the spatial pattern of low birth weights in Los Angeles County, California.      

海三棱藨草(Scirpus mariqueter)根系低分子量有机酸对根际沉积物重金属生物有效性的影响

应用等离子光谱仪(ICP)与高效液相色谱仪(HPLC)分别对海三棱藨草根际沉积物中重金属(Cu、Pb、Zn和Cd)不同化学形态含量和植物根系分泌物中常见低分子量有机酸进行了季节跟踪测定,分析了有机酸(柠檬酸、草酸、酒石酸、苹果酸、甲酸和乳酸)含量与重金属化学形态(可交换态、碳酸盐结合态、铁锰氧化物结合态、有机结合态和残渣态)的季节相关性。结果表明,柠檬酸、草酸和苹果酸含量与Cu和Pb的除残渣态外的其它4种形态含量呈正相关性,表明其能提高Cu和Pb生物有效性,与Zn的所有形态含量呈负相关性,降低了生物有效性;酒石酸、甲酸和乳酸含量与Cu和Pb的可交换态含量呈负相关性,而与其它形态含量相关性不明显,降低了生物有效性。与Zn的除残渣态外的其它4种形态含量呈正相关性,提高其生物有效性。而上述所有有机酸与Cd的各种化学形态相关性不明显。表明其对Cd的生物有效性影响不大。     

福州盆地及其周围地区地壳深部结构与构造的初步研究

1986-1988年,福建省地震局在福州盆地及其周围地区完成了五条地震测深剖面:宁德-永春剖面;洪懒-宁德剖面;莲峰-福州（尚干）剖面;南平-永泰-平潭非纵剖面;并在宁德-古田-嵩口首次试验扇形剖面观测系统,结果表明,扇形剖面对确定断裂是有效的. 根据对地震波走时的正、反演计算,用理论地震图和射线追踪方法进一步修改和完善,得到了福州盆地及其周围地区地壳深部为高、低速相间的速度分布特征.地壳介质速度为6.40km/s,在中地壳普遍发育一层速度为5.80-5.90 km/s、厚度约5.0 km的低速层.Moho面深度30-33 km,福州盆地为一Moho面隆起区,隆起幅度达3.0 km.北西向断裂发育,其中,闽江断裂在纵剖面和扇形剖面均有明显的反映,并切割到Moho面2.0-3.0 km. 反射波谱频方法计算得到福州盆地地壳Q值仅120-150,比邻近地区明显偏低,中地壳低速层Q值为40-80,是一典型的低速-高导-低Q（高衰减）结构层,此层上界面埋深14-15 km,与居里面埋深较一致.这些结果为福州地区的地热资源远景预测和开发提供了地壳深部结构和某些地球物理场背景.     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT OF LOW CONCENTRATION IN PIPES

The study of Sediment transport of low concentration in pipes bas been applied in the design of a self-cleansing storm sewer. An alternative criterion is suggested as op- posed to the widely used single flow velocity approach. A conceptual model which simu- lates the condition in a storm sewer is developed and tested against experimental data. The results proved that the volumetric sediment concentration, pipe diameter and sedi- ment size have to be taken into consideration to produce a self-cleansing storm sewer. It also shows that the slope obtained by this alternative criterion is lower than the single flow velocity approach.     

30—60天大气振荡的全球特征

利用ECMWF格点资料,分析研究了大气季节内(30—60天)振荡的全球特征。30—60天振荡动能的分布表明高纬度地区要比赤道地区大得多。说明那里有较突出的30—60天振荡。中高纬度地区的30—60天振荡与热带有明显不同,垂直结构为正压模态,以纬向2—4波为主,多为向酉传播。30—60天振荡存在明显的低频遥相关,北半球主要为欧亚—太平洋(EAP)型和PNA型,南半球主要有澳洲—南非(ASA)型和环南美(RSA)型,并且在全球范围构成南北半球相互衔接的低频波列,即EAP-ASA波列和PNA-RSA波列。南北半球30—60天大气振荡有明显的相互影响,本文研究了南北半球30—60天振荡相互影响的3种主要过程。