内蒙古气象服务热线平台的设计与实现

内蒙古气象服务热线平台是基于Windows操作平台开发的一款应用于气象行业的C／S版声询信息管理系统。采用VOIP技术实现全国省（自治区）一级人工气象服务热线平台和中国气象局人工气象服务热线平台之间的联网,实现全国人工服务的联网。为达到中国气象局在全国范围内统一特服号码-4006000121,以省（自治区）为单位建设气象服务热线平台。     

基于优化包络相关法的罗兰C天波延迟估计算法

针对低信噪比条件下,罗兰C天波信号延迟时间估计的准确性和有效性问题,提出基于优化包络的相关系数时域法。通过分析标准罗兰C信号包络的特征,分别采用微分和二次微分方法对罗兰C信号包络进行优化,形成陡峭的包络信号上升沿;利用相关系数法对接收信号包络和参考信号包络进行匹配,形成的匹配峰值分别对应地波和天波信号到达的时刻,由此可获得天波信号的延迟时间;通过仿真分析和实测信号试验验证,证明该方法能满足数字化接收机的实际要求,并具有更高的抗干扰能力、估计准确性和自动识别功能的特点。估计的结果还可以作为判别相位跟踪和周期识别正确率的辅助依据。     

An accretion-jet model for 3C 84: Interpreting the spectral energy distribution and Faraday rotation measure

3C 84 is a well-known supermassive black hole that can be used to explore jet and accretion physics. In this work, we model the multiwavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) of the 3C 84, and find that the SED is difficult to fit with pure advection dominated accretion flow (ADAF) or pure jet model. Using a coupled ADAF-jet model to fit the SED of 3C 84, it is found that the radio emission and the millimeter emission can be naturally reproduced by the synchrotron radiation of nonthermal electrons in the jet, and that the X-ray emission may predominantly come from inverse Compton radiation from electrons in ADAF. According to the Rotation Measure (RM) obtained by the polarization observation, we consider the possible location of the polarizing source and found that the calculated RM in the jet is roughly consistent with the observational constraints. These results will help us better understand jets produced by black holes.     

基于现代信号处理的罗兰C天波延迟估计研究

传统罗兰C接收机为避免天波信号干扰,采用固定的采样时刻,以致接收机信噪比下降,直接影响了接收机的整体工作性能.分析了三种测量天波时间延迟的现代信号处理方法,并进行了实验仿真分析比对,验证了该方法对于测量天波延迟地波时间的准确性和有效性.     

基于MODIS数据的决策树分类方法研究与应用

介绍了目前国际上流行的两种决策树算法———CART算法与C4·5算法,并引入了两种机器学习领域里的分类新技术———boosting和bagging技术,为探究这些决策树分类算法与新技术在遥感影像分类方面的潜力,以中国华北地区MODIS250m分辨率影像进行了土地覆盖决策树分类试验与分析。研究结果表明决策树在满足充分训练样本的条件下,相对于传统方法如最大似然法(MLC)能明显提高分类精度,而在样本量不足下决策树分类表现差于MLC;并发现在单一决策树生成中,分类回归树CART算法表现较C4·5算法具有分类精度和树结构优势,分类精度的提高取决于树结构的合理构建与剪枝处理;另外在决策树CART中引入boosting技术,能明显提高那些较难识别类别的分类准确率18·5%到25·6%。     

Is Comet C/1853 E1 (Secchi) extrasolar?

Comet C/1853 E1 (Secchi) has a hyperbolic orbit with eccentricity 1.01060 and perihelion outside of the Earth's orbit. Integrating the orbit with barycentric coordinates backwards to 50000 AU, the approximate edge of the Oort cloud, shows that the orbit remains hyperbolic. This is still true even if plutoids additional to Pluto are included in the integration. Nor does including Galactic tidal and disc effects and possible nongravitational forces change the orbit to a high eccentricity ellipse. Although certain factors, such as unknown massive plutoids, gravitational effects by interstellar gas clouds, or unmodelled nongravitational forces operating on the comet, could change this situation, the tentative conclusion that the origin of this comet is extrasolar remains the one most consistent with the observations (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Sediment cascades and the entangled relationship between human impact and natural dynamics at the pre-pottery Neolithic site of Göbekli Tepe,Anatolia

This study presents a meta-analysis of radiocarbon ages for the environs of Göbekli Tepe – one of the oldest monumental structures worldwide – using cumulative probability functions to diachronically assess phases of geomorphodynamic activity as controlled by natural or anthropogenic drivers. We employ sediment cascades as a heuristic framework to study the complex responses of the geomorphological system to various triggers at local to supra-regional scales. Possible triggers include climatic variability as documented by supra-regional hydroclimatic proxy data, regional demographic trends, and local to regional socioeconomic developments such as the emergence of sedentism or the introduction and dispersal of livestock herding. Our results show that phases of intensified geomorphodynamic activity occurred between ca. 7.4–7.0 and 5.8–3.3 ka BP. These phases roughly coincide with phases of population growth in southern Turkey and climatic variations in Turkey and the Levant. The phase between ca. 5.8–3.3 ka BP also corresponds to the time when organized agriculture and the seeder plough were introduced. Also, the identified phases are in agreement with the general trend of varying geomorphodynamic activity in the Eastern Mediterranean as driven by human impact and climatic change. However, neither the Younger Dryas–Holocene transition nor the development of herding during the Pre-Pottery Neolithic left a clear signature. We demonstrate how the different depositional environments in the studied landscape compartments vary with respect to their spatiotemporal coverage and discuss challenges when trying to understand processes that once shaped landscapes of past societies. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

广西上泥盆统F-F界线碳同位素的变化特征

发生在晚泥盆世弗拉期(Frasnian)-法门期(Famennian)之交的生物灭绝事件(简称F-F事件)是古生代以来五大生物集群灭绝事件之一,其原因仍含糊不清。碳同位素研究显示,伴随F-F事件全球碳循环发生了显著的变化。但对中国南方F-F事件地层碳同位素变化特征的认识不够,缺乏系统的研究。对广西桂林杨堤上泥盆统灰岩剖面的碳同位素的分析结果表明,在上泥盆统存在两次碳同位素正偏移,分别出现在下rhenana带和F-F的界线,其中,出现在F-F界线的碳同位素正偏移与广西垌村以及欧美和非洲等地的上泥盆统F-F界线附近的碳同位素记录一致,且具有相近的变化幅度。进一步对广西桂林附近的杨堤和垌村剖面F-F界线的碳同位素组成变化模式的分析发现,这次正偏移可能是由多次次级变化组成,与F-F事件中生物的灭绝步骤相似。     

Historical behaviour of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as investigated by snow accumulation and ice velocity measurements

Ice divide–dome behaviour is used for ice sheet mass balance studies and interpretation of ice core records. In order to characterize the historical behaviour (last 400 yr) of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica), ice velocities have been measured since 1996 using a GPS system, and the palaeo-spatial variability of snow accumulation has been surveyed using snow radar and firn cores. The snow accumulation distribution of both domes indicates distributions of accumulation that are non-symmetrical in relation to dome morphology. Changes in spatial distributions have been observed over the last few centuries, with a decrease in snow accumulation gradient along the wind direction at Talos Dome and a counter-clockwise rotation of accumulation distribution in the northern part of Dome C. Observations at Dome C reveal a significant increase in accumulation since the 1950s, which could correlate to altered snow accumulation patterns due to changes in snowfall trajectory. Snow accumulation mechanisms are different at the two domes: a wind-driven snow accumulation process operates at Talos Dome, whereas snowfall trajectory direction is the main factor at Dome C. Repeated GPS measurements made at Talos Dome have highlighted changes in ice velocity, with a deceleration in the NE portion, acceleration in the SW portion and migration of dome summit, which are apparently correlated with changes in accumulation distribution. The observed behaviour in accumulation and velocity indicates that even the most remote areas of East Antarctica have changed from a decadal to secular scale.     

甘肃时段暴雨主要统计参数的水平分布规律研究

甘肃是一个干旱同时又是暴雨多发的省份。通过介绍与暴雨关系密切的甘肃自然地理概况,选用甘肃境内及其周边700个雨量站的观测资料,在统计计算10min、60min、6h、24h、3d这5个时段在每个时段的多年平均时段最大暴雨量和变差系数的基础上,研究了5个时段的两个主要统计参数在甘肃省境内的水平分布规律。对甘肃及其周边干旱地区的公路铁路建设、暴雨洪水集蓄利用、水土保持和防洪减灾等具有重要意义。