Numerical prediction of MODUs drift during Hurricane Katrina

Severe hurricanes, such as Katrina, broke the mooring lines of a number of mobile offshore drilling units (MODU) deployed in the Gulf of Mexico and some of those MODUs went adrift. A drifting MODU may damage other critical elements of the offshore oil and gas infrastructure by colliding with floating or fixed production systems and transportation hubs, or by rupturing pipelines owing to their dragging anchors over the seabed. To avoid or mitigate the damage caused by a drifting MODU, it is desirable to understand the mechanics of the drift of a MODU under the impact of severe wind, wave and current and have the capability of predicting the trajectory of the drift. To explore the feasibility and accuracy of predicting the trajectory of a drifting MODU based on hindcast met-ocean conditions and limited knowledge of the condition of the drifting MODU, this study employed a simplified equation describing only the horizontal (surge, sway and yaw) motions of a MODU under the impact of steady wind, current and wave forces. The simplified hydrodynamic model neglects the first- and second-order oscillatory wave forces, unsteady wind forces (owing to wind gustiness), wave drift damping, and the effects of the body oscillation on the steady wind and current forces. It was assumed that the net effects of the oscillatory forces on the steady motion are insignificant. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of our simplified approach, the predicted drifting trajectories of two MODUs were compared with the corresponding measurements recorded by the global positioning system (GPS).     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Comparison of flow patterns in the near wake of a circular cylinder and a square cylinder placed near a plane wall

The flow patterns in the near wake of a cylinder (either circular or square in shape, D=25 mm) placed in the proximity of a fully developed turbulent boundary layer (thickness δ=0.4D) are investigated experimentally using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The effects of changing the gap height (S) between the cylinder bottom and the wall surface, over the gap ratio range S/D=0.1–1.0, have been investigated. The results show that both the ensemble-averaged and instantaneous flow fields are strongly dependent on S/D. The flow patterns for the two types of cylinders share many similarities with respect to the change in S/D, such as the reduced recirculation length and increased velocity fluctuation in the near wake with increasing S/D, as well as the trend of suppression of vortex shedding at small S/D and onset of vortex shedding at large S/D. However, developments of the shear layers, in terms of wake width, flow curvature, etc., are considerably different for these two types of cylinders. In general, the wake development and momentum exchange for the square cylinder are slower those for the circular cylinder at the same gap ratio. Correspondingly, it is shown that the periodic vortex shedding is delayed and weakened in the case of square cylinder, as compared to that of the circular cylinder at the same S/D.     

Low-temperature alteration of oceanic island basalts and their contribution to transition metal circulation of the ocean

The major elements, rare earth elements （REE） and trace elements of four basalt samples from central and western Pacific ferro- manganese crust provinces have been analyzed using chemical methods and ICP - MS, respectively. The results indicate that the samples have been extensively altered and that the contents of their major elements have changed significantly. However, the similarity of REE partition patterns and trace element contents of basalt samples to those of fresh oceanic island basalts （OIB） indicate that the basalt samples originated as OIB. Because of low-temperature alteration, the contents of A1203 , Fe203 , MnO, K20 and P205 increased, while MgO and FeO decreased. Active components, such as magnesium and iron, were leached from OIB resulting in the relative enrichment of SiO2. The leaching of active components can cause the relative enrichment of REE, while the precipitation of LREE-rich ferromanganese oxides in vesicles and fissures not only causes an increase of REE contents, but also induces ＂fractionation＂ of LREE and HREE. Based on the enrichment mechanism of REE contents, the theoretical quantities of precipitated ferromanganese oxides and the depleted quantities of active components are calculated ： the depleted quantities of active components for the unit mass of fresh basalts vary in the range of 0.15 ～ 0. 657, and the precipitated quantities of ferromanganese oxides for the unit mass of fresh basahs vary in the range of 0. 006 ～ 0. 042. Of the major elements, the two most depleted are iron, and magnesium, with 18.28% ～ 70.95% of iron and 44.50% ～ 93.94% of magnesium in the fresh basalts was leached out. Theoretical calculation and geochemistry results both indicate that low-temperature alteration of basalts can supply abundant amount of metals to seawater, and may play an important role in ocean metal circulation.     

Wind impact on pollutant transport in a shallow estuary

A three-dimensional numerical model, EFDC （ environmental fluid dynamics code） is applied to the Pamlico River Estuary （PRE） in eastern North Carolina of the United States to examine the wind impact on pollutant age distributions and residence time. A series of model experiments representing base case, remote-wind-induced water level set-up and local winds cases are conducted. Model results indicate that the pollutant mean age and the system residence time are functions of gravitational circulation in the PRE. The system responses to remote-wind-induced water level set-up are different in different portions of the PRE. Under such condition, dissolved substances in the upstream portion of the PRE have a younger age and shorter residence time （compared with the base case） , by contrast, they have a older age and longer residence time in the downstream portion of the PRE. Upriver and downriver local winds appear to have opposite impacts on pollutant age distributions. The substances are retained much longer within the PRE under upriver wind than those under downriver wind. The model results also suggest that across - river winds may lead to longer residence time through enhanced turbulence mixing, which slows down the gravitational circulation in the PRE.     

Nutrient composition and distributions in coastal waters impacted by the Changjiang plume

Four cruises were conducted during 2002--2003 in the Changjiang Estuary and adjacent coastal areas. The data presented show a clear coast to open sea gradient in nutrients related to the river inputs. Maximum values of chlorophyll a were typically observed at intermediate salinities at surface water and coincided with non-conservative decreases in nutrients along the salinity gradient, indicating that removal of nutrients was related to phytoplankton uptake. The seasonal variations of nutrient concentrations were just opposite to those of chlorophyll a, indicating that the seasonal variations of nutrients were mainly controlled by phytoplankton uptake, whereas riverine inputs merely weakened or balanced its extent. During the estuarine mixing, phosphate demonstrated some remobilization during all the four cruises; whereas both conservative and non-conservative behaviors for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and silicate were observed in the study area, indicating that both biotic and abiotic events may affect their behaviors during the estuarine mixing. Under the influence of freshwater inputs with high value of ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus, the estuarine and coastal waters impacted by the Changjiang plume were high （ 〉 30） in ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus, but rates of primary production were apparently not constrained by any kind of nutrient elements. However, the low （ 〈 1 ） ratio of silicate to nitrogen in most of the study area might be linked with the rapidly increasing frequency of harmful algal bloom （HAB） incidents in recent years in the coastal waters impacted by the Changjiang plume.     

Decline of Pseudodiaptomus hessei (Copepoda, Calanoida) in two water bodies located in the Senegal River hydrosystem (West Africa): Hypotheses and perspectives

Pseudodiaptomus hessei is a key species in many water bodies in the Senegal River hydrosystem but it became rare or completely disappeared from two ecosystems (Lake Guiers and Dakar Bango Reservoir; Senegal, West Africa) after major hydrological changes caused by human action, mainly impoundments on the river in 1985, and the opening of a new estuary mouth in 2003. Kâ et al. [Kâ, S., Pagano, M., Ba, N., Bouvy, M., Leboulanger, C., Arfi, R., Thiaw, O.T., Ndour, E.H.M., Corbin, D., Defaye, D., Cuoc, C., Kouassi, E., 2006. Zooplankton distribution related to environmental factors and phytoplankton in a shallow tropical lake (Lake Guiers, Senegal, West Africa). International Review of Hydrobiology 91(5), 389–405] put forward several hypotheses to explain the reasons for this decline: salinity and chemical changes in the water, predation by a cyclopid predator Mesocyclops ogunnus and/or the inhibiting effects of cyanobacteria and/or diatoms (allelopathy). This study assessed these hypotheses by studying the distribution of P. hessei in 13 stations (including the Dakar Bango reservoir and Lake Guiers) in relation to physical, chemical and biological (phyto- and zooplanktons) factors at each station. We produced a distribution pattern for this species in the Senegal River hydrosystem. Rank correlations and principal component analysis showed that P. hessei was not correlated with conductivity but was positively correlated with pH and alkalinity, suggesting chemical effects. The clear association with two filamentous cyanobacteria (Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and Anabaena sp.) did not appear to support the hypothesis of cyanobacteria inhibition but blooming conditions were never encountered during the study. Negative correlation with diatoms (especially with Fragilaria sp.) suggested that aldehyde producing diatoms had a negative effect. Negative correlations with cyclopids such as Mesocyclops supported the hypothesis of cyclopid predation to explain the decline of P. hessei. This study proposes several lines of research for future studies to test these hypotheses.     

Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK

A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs.     

Changes in the abundance and composition of picophytoplankton in relation to the occurrence of a Kyucho and a bottom intrusion in the Bungo Channel,Japan

The Bungo Channel in southwestern Japan receives both warm, called Kyucho, and cold deep-water intrusions (bottom intrusion) from the Pacific Ocean. Abundances of Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and eukaryotic picophytoplankton were monitored from 18 July to 17 August 2001 to clarify whether advected picophytoplankton from the Pacific Ocean can grow in the channel or not. Synechococcus cells were further discriminated into low- and high-PUB types according to their fluorescence property in flow cytometry. From 18 to 25 July, the water temperature decreased by 3 °C at a 5-m depth at all stations, indicating the occurrence of a bottom intrusion. From 25 July to 4 August, a Kyucho occurred and the water temperature rapidly increased. From 4 to 17 August, a bottom intrusion and a Kyucho both occurred twice, although the intensities were smaller than those occurring until 4 August. From 18 to 30 July, the abundance of both Prochlorococcus and a high-PUB type of Synechococcus drastically decreased because of a bottom intrusion; however, the abundances rapidly increased due to the advection by a Kyucho. These advected cells increased from 4 to 17 August in the channel and Kitanada Bay. Changes in the abundance of low-PUB type of Synechococcus and eukaryotic picophytoplankton were less noticeable than those in the abundance of Prochlorococcus and high-PUB type. The present study demonstrated that oceanic picophytoplankton advected by the Kyucho could grow in the channel. However, abundances of low-PUB type and eukaryotic picophytoplankton increased higher than those of Prochlorococcus and high-PUB type did. Thus, these oceanic phytoplankters will be excluded when Kyucho does not occur for a long time. The co-occurrence of various types of picophytoplankton found in the channel is probably achieved by both Kyucho event and their growth capability in the channel.     

The infusion of sustainability into bilateral fisheries agreements with developing countries: The European Union example

The EU's bilateral fishing policy towards developing third countries has evolved over the years to increasingly emphasise sustainability, culminating in 2002 with the release of a ‘fisheries partnership approach’. The Community has begun to operationalise the policy in various West African coastal states, where its new fisheries partnership agreements are intended to function as ‘development vectors’. This paper introduces the EU's new policy, examines its potential implications for the role of sustainability in future bilateral fishing relations and highlights the impetus for it with reference to analysis of the EU's most recent agreement with Senegal based on empirical research.