2013年芦山7.0级地震一年尺度预测的回顾性研究——基于三性法、静中动和垂震底继模式

对2013年中期地震预测的研究结果(一年尺度)进行了阐述与分析。该预测综合了三性法判据、静中动判据和垂震底继模式,给出了2013年左右在鲜水河断裂带上发生7级以上大震的可能性很大的结论。重点预测了两个具体发生的区域,预测的区域与2013年4月20日芦山7.0级地震的震源区相差70～80km左右。预测结果震级与时间吻合,但地点上发生了偏离。文中重点回顾研究了基于三性法,静中动、垂震底继方法的预测过程。     

2006年文安Mw4.9级地震的有限震源波形模拟研究

2006年7月4日发生在河北文安的M_w4.9级地震,由于没有地表破裂并缺乏能够精确定位的余震序列,从而在地震发震构造的确定上存在困难.本文利用首都圈地震台网9个台站的Z分量数字波形记录,通过与有限震源模型的理论波形模拟结果比较,能够快速分辨发震断层面及破裂扩展方式,同时对震源运动学参数提供一定约束.结果显示,在文安地震震源机制解的两组共轭节面中,走向110°、倾角65°、滑动角8°的节面更有可能代表真实的发震面;破裂扩展方式为一向西扩展的单侧破裂.这一结果与本区域构造应力研究及块体相对运动方向观测结果一致.本文的工作,为中等震级地震发震构造的快速确定提出了一种简单而有效的方法.     

On standardizing the ‘Water Drop Penetration Time’ and the ‘Molarity of an Ethanol Droplet’ techniques to classify soil hydrophobicity: A case study using medium textured soils

Two common methods to assess soil hydrophobicity are the ‘Water Drop Penetration Time’ and ‘Molarity of an Ethanol Droplet’ techniques. For these, uncertainty exists regarding the representativeness of laboratory tests reflecting field conditions, their replicability, and the comparability of results between the two techniques. Using air-dried soils with a broad particle size and hydrophobicity range, this study shows that a high representativeness and replicability of results can be achieved. A close relationship between the two tests was found for highly, but not for moderately hydrophobic soils. Guidelines are suggested to increase representativeness, replicability and comparability of results in future studies. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thermal-baric structure and P–T history of the Brooks Range metamorphic core, Alaska

Documentation of pressure–temperature (P–T) histories across an epidote‐amphibolite facies culmination provides new insight into the tectono‐thermal evolution of the Brooks Range collisional orogen. Thermobarometry reveals that the highest grade rocks formed at peak temperatures of 560–600 °C and at pressures of 8–9.5 kbar. The thermal culmination coincides with the apex of a structural dome defined by oppositely dipping S2 crenulation cleavages suggesting post‐metamorphic doming. South of the thermal culmination, greenschist facies and lowermost epidote‐amphibolite facies rocks preserve widespread evidence for an early blueschist facies metamorphism. In contrast, no evidence for an early blueschist facies metamorphism was found in similar grade rocks of the northern flank, indicating that the southern flank underwent initial deeper burial during southward underthrusting of the continental margin. Thus, while the dome shows a symmetric distribution of peak temperatures, the P–T paths followed by the two flanks must have varied. This variation suggests that final thermal re‐equilibration to greenschist and epidote–amphibolite facies conditions did not result from a simple process of southward underthrusting followed by thermal re‐equilibration from the bottom upward. The new data are inconsistent with a previous model that invokes such re‐equilibration, along with northward thrusting of epidote–amphibolite facies rocks over lower grade rocks presently on the southern flank of the culmination, to produce an inverted metamorphic field gradient. Instead, it is suggested that following blueschist facies metamorphism, rocks of the southern and northern flanks were juxtaposed, during which time the more deeply buried south flank was partially emplaced above rocks to the north, where they escaped Albian epidote–amphibolite facies overprinting. Porphyroblast growth, which post‐dates the main fabric on the north flank of the culmination may be the result of Albian thermal re‐equilibration following this deformation. Post‐metamorphic doming resulted from a combination of Albian‐Cenomanian extension and Tertiary deformation.     

泰安市旅游生态能值分析

运用能值理论, 从区域生态经济系统的视角, 提出旅游生态能值理论, 论述旅游输入能值、旅游输出能值、旅游能值交换率、旅游可持续发展指标等概念、测算依据和计算方法, 并对2010 年泰安区域生态经济系统内旅游可持续发展水平进行旅游生态能值分析。实证研究表明:(1) 泰安区域生态经济系统可利用能值为15867.32×10¹⁹ sej, 旅游输入能值为1766.59×10¹⁹ sej, 旅游输出能值为679.40×10¹⁹ sej, 旅游能值交换率为2.60。旅游可持续发展能值指标TSEI为1.76, 处在可持续发展阶段;(2) 运用旅游生态能值的理论评价旅游可持续发展水平是可行的。     

Holocene fire and vegetation dynamics in a montane forest, North Cascade Range, Washington, USA

We reconstructed a 10,500-yr fire and vegetation history of a montane site in the North Cascade Range, Washington State based on lake sediment charcoal, macrofossil and pollen records. High-resolution sampling and abundant macrofossils made it possible to analyze relationships between fire and vegetation. During the early Holocene (> 10,500 to ca. 8000 cal yr BP) forests were subalpine woodlands dominated by Pinus contorta. Around 8000 cal yr BP, P. contorta sharply declined in the macrofossil record. Shade tolerant, mesic species first appeared ca. 4500 cal yr BP. Cupressus nootkatensis appeared most recently at 2000 cal yr BP. Fire frequency varies throughout the record, with significantly shorter mean fire return intervals in the early Holocene than the mid and late Holocene. Charcoal peaks are significantly correlated with an initial increase in macrofossil accumulation rates followed by a decrease, likely corresponding to tree mortality following fire. Climate appears to be a key driver in vegetation and fire regimes over millennial time scales. Fire and other disturbances altered forest vegetation at shorter time scales, and vegetation may have mediated local fire regimes. For example, dominance of P. contorta in the early Holocene forests may have been reinforced by its susceptibility to frequent, stand-replacing fire events.     

Dynamic interactions between crustal shortening,extension, and magmatism in the North American Cordillera

This paper examines the first-order dynamic interactions between crustal shortening, extension, and volcanism in tectonic evolution in the North American Cordillera. The protracted crustal compression in the Mesozoic and early Cenozoic (110–55 Ma) contributed to the subsequent Tertiary extension by thermally weakening the lithosphere and producing an overthickened (>50 km) and gravitationally unstable crust. In addition to post-kinematic burial heating, synkinematic thermal processes including conduction are shown significantly because of the long period of crustal contraction and the slow shortening rates (<4 mm/yr). The effects of shear heating were probably limited for the same reasons. Localized delamination of the lithospheric mantle may have contributed to the abundant plutonism and high crustal temperature in the southeastern Canadian Cordillera at the end of the orogeny. Most early-stage extension in the Cordillera, characterized by formation of metamorphic core complexes, resulted from gravitational collapse of the overthickened crust. Plutionism may have facilitated strain localization, causing widespread crustal extension at relatively low stress levels. Crustal collapse, however, was unlikely the direct cause of the Basin-Range extension, because the gravitational stresses induced by crustal thickening are limited to the crust; only a small fraction of the gravitational stresses may be transmitted to the lithospheric mantle. Nor could core complex formation induce the voluminous mid-Tertiary volcanism, which requires major upwelling of the asthenosphere. While the causes of the asthenospheric upwelling are not clear, such processes could provide the necessary conditions for the Basin-Range extension: the driving force from thermally induced gravitational potential and a thermally weakened lithosphere. The complicated spatial and temporal patterns of volcanism and extension in the Basin and Range province may be partially due to the time-dependent competing effects of thermal weakening and rheological hardening associated with intrusion and underplating of mantle-derived magmas.     

Fully Nonlinear Simulations of Wave Resonance by An Array of Cylinders in Vertical Motions

The finite element method (FEM) is employed to analyze the resonant oscillations of the liquid confined within multiple or an array of floating bodies with fully nonlinear boundary conditions on the free surface and the body surface in two dimensions. The velocity potentials at each time step are obtained through the FEM with 8-node quadratic shape functions. The finite element linear system is solved by the conjugate gradient (CG) method with a symmetric successive overelaxlation (SSOR) preconditioner. The waves at the open boundary are absorbed by the combination of the damping zone method and the Sommerfeld-Orlanski equation. Numerical examples are given by an array of floating wedge- shaped cylinders and rectangular cylinders. Results are provided for heave motions including wave elevations, profiles and hydrodynamic forces. Comparisons are made in several cases with the results obtained from the second order solution in the time domain. It is found that the wave amplitude in the middle region of the array is larger than those in other places, and the hydrodynamic force on a cylinder increases with the cylinder closing to the middle of the array.     

Recognition of Early Paleozoic Magmatisms in the Supposed Proterozoic Basements of Zhalantun, Great Xing’an Range, NE China

The Zhalantun terrane from the Xing'an massif, northeast China, was used to be considered as Proterozoic basements. However, amounts of detrital zircon ages from the meta-sedimentary rocks deny the existence of Precambrian basements recently. Notably, magmatic rocks were barely reported to limit the exact ages of the Zhalantun basements. In this study, we collected rhyolite, gabbro and quartz diorite for zircon in-situ U-Pb isotopic dating, which yield crystallization ages of ～505 Ma, ～447 Ma and ～125 Ma, respectively. Muscovite schist and siltstone define maximum depositional ages of ～499 Ma and ～489 Ma, respectively. Additionally, these dated supracrustal rocks and plutons also yield ancient detrital/xenocryst zircon ages of ～600–1000 Ma, ～1600–2220 Ma, ～2400 Ma, ～2600–2860 Ma. Based on the whole-rock major and trace element compositions, the ～505 Ma rhyolites display high SiO_2 and alkaline contents, low Fe_2O_3T, TiO_2 and Al_2O_3, and relatively high Mg O and Mg#, which exhibit calc-alkaline characteristics. These rhyolites yield fractionated REE patterns and negative Nb, Ta, Ti, Sr, P and Eu anomalies and positive Zr anomalies. The geochemistry, petrology and Lu-Hf isotopes imply that rhyolites were derived from the partial melting of continental basalt induced by upwelling of sub-arc mantle magmas, and then experienced fractional crystallization of plagioclase, which points to a continental arc regime. The ～447 Ma gabbros exhibit low Si O2 and alkaline contents, high Fe2 O3 T, Ti O2, Mg O and Mg#. They show minor depletions of La and Ce, flat MREE and HREE patterns, and negative Nb, Ta, Zr and Hf anomalies. Both sub-arc mantle and N-MORB-like mantle were involved in the formation of the gabbros, indicative of a probable back-arc basin tectonic setting. Given that, the previously believed Proterozoic supracrustal rocks and several plutons from the Zhalantun Precambrian basements were proved to be Paleozoic to Mesozoic rocks, among which these Paleozoic magmatic rocks were generally related to subduction regime. So far, none Proterozoic rocks have been identified from the Zhalantun Precambrian basement, though some ～600–3210 Ma ancient detrital/xenocryst zircons were reported. Combined with ancient zircon ages and newly reported ～2.5 Ga and ～1.8 Ga granites from the south of the Zhalantun, therefore, the Precambrian rocks probably once exposed in the Zhalantun while they were re-worked and consumed during later long tectonic evolutionary history, resulting in absence of Precambrian rocks in the Zhalantun.