基于历史文献重建的近2000年中国温度变化比较研究

文中对不同学者利用不同来源中国历史文献资料重建的温度变化代用序列进行了比对,分析了同一地区不同序列之间及不同地区间序列的异同,以及造成这些异同的主要原因。结果表明:(1)不同学者重建的同一地区温度(或冷暖)变化序列具有较高的相似性;不同学者所估计的30 a平均温度相对变幅完全一致(即在99.9%置信水平下,二者通过无显著性差别的检验)的时段平均占所有时段的73.4%,还有8.6%的时段虽在幅度大小上有差异但冷暖定性一致,二者共计占82%。(2)不同地区间的温度变化序列也具有较高的相关性,且重建区域相距越近其相关系数也越高,序列的相似程度也越大;而不同学者所选择的重建方法与代用指标不同并不影响不同地区之间序列的相似程度,说明不同地区序列的不一致应是由于地区的气候变化差异造成的。(3)虽然不同学者所估计的中国过去千年以上的温度变化趋势及波动幅度等存在一定差异,但各家所揭示的中国东部过去2000年主要冷暖阶段的出现时间则基本一致。这些结果进一步说明:以前学术界对各家序列差异的认识可能并没有或很少考虑地区间气候变化的差异,因而夸大了不同学者因重建方法与原始证据不同而造成的重建结果差异,这是不客观的。     

MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the LGM.Ⅰ: Influence of CO2 and Earth Orbit Change

Using a regional climate model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the relative Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate response to different mechanisms over China. Model simulations of the present day (PD) climate and the LGM climate change are in good agreement with the observation data and geological records, especially in the simulation of precipitation change. Under the PD and LGM climate, changes of earth orbital parameters have a small influence on the annual mean temperature over China.However, the magnitude of the effect shows a seasonal pattern, with a significant response in winter. Thus,this influence cannot be neglected. During the LGM, CO2 concentration reached its lowest point to 200 ppmv. This results in a temperature decrease over China. The influences of CO2 concentration on climate show seasonal and regional patterns as well, with a significant influence in winter. On the contrary, CO2concentration has less impact in summer season. In some cases, temperature even increases with decreasing in CO2 concentration. This temperature increase is the outcome of decrease in cloud amount; hence increase the solar radiation that reached the earth's surface. This result suggests that cloud amount plays a very important role in climate change and could direct the response patterns of some climate variables such as temperature during certain periods and over certain regions. In the Tibetan Plateau, the temperature responses to changes of the above two factors are generally weaker than those in other regions because the cloud amount in this area is generally more than in the other areas. Relative to the current climate, changes in orbital parameters have less impact on the LGM climate than changes in CO2 concentration. However,both factors have rather less contributions to the climate change in the LGM. About 3%-10% changes in the annual mean temperature are contributed by CO2.     

爪哇海末次冰盛期以来的季风与穿越流活动记录

文章通过SHI9034岩芯氧同位素曲线、AMS¹⁴C测年、浮游有孔虫组合及其所反映的温盐变化特点,并与爪哇海北部的SHI9006岩芯对比研究,获得如下认识:末次冰期21～15kaB.P.阶段,爪哇海区东南季风强而西北季风微弱,气候冷干,混合层薄,生物生产力高;15～10kaB.P.和10～7kaB.P.阶段由于海平面迅速上升,望加锡海峡和龙目海峡通道变宽,出现较强的表层穿越流活动;早全新世东南与西北季风都有增强,说明当时研究区气候有着更强的季节性;7～3kaB.P.阶段,爪哇海北部的穿越流主要在温跃层水中传输,到达爪哇上升流区时,上升至表层,使得混合层增厚,同时也抑制了上升流活动;约3kaB.P.以来,研究区穿越流活动表现与现代相近的性质,主要在温跃层水中传输。     

末次冰期冰碛垄系列的形态特征及其形成探讨 ——以帕隆藏布江谷地为例

冰碛的形态特征是气候变化的标记.以往的野外考察发现末次冰期的冰碛具有近乎统一的发育模式.选取藏东南帕隆藏布江流域的10条冰川, 研究其前方末次冰期冰川堆积特征, 以揭示其所反映的气候变化过程. 结果表明: 末次冰期MIS2形成最高大的冰碛垄, 我们称之为主冰碛垄, 这套冰碛垄示意当时冰期气候持续稳定时间最长.为主冰碛垄所部分覆盖而由其底部延伸出来的, 尚有至少两套范围更大、 但规模较小的冰碛垄, 表明MIS2之前冰期气候可能曾更加严酷, 但持续时间相对要短, 可能反映MIS4和/或MIS3的冰期气候特点.主冰碛垄内侧一直到现代冰川相当长的河谷段, 通常呈现多道冰碛垄, 规模均较主冰碛小, 它们有的不排除作为后退冰碛(recessional moraine)的可能性, 但晚冰期(YD)、 抑或H1事件应当是值得注意的.临近现代冰川末端, 一般能够辨别新冰期和小冰期冰碛垄. 因此, 藏东南这样一系列的冰川堆积, 以其形态、 范围和规模特征, 辅之以高精度的系统测年, 几乎可恢复出气候变化曲线来, 了解与全球氧同位素曲线之间的齿合关系.     

Late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in a biodiversity hotspot, the Uluguru Mountains of Tanzania

Late Quaternary vegetation history and environmental changes in a biodiverse tropical ecosystem are inferred from pollen, charcoal and carbon isotope evidence derived from a ∼ 48,000-yr sedimentary record from the Uluguru Mountains, a component of the Eastern Arc Mountains of Kenya and Tanzania. Results indicate that Eastern Arc forest composition has remained relatively stable during the past ∼ 48,000 yr. Long-term environmental stability of the Eastern Arc forests has been proposed as a mechanism for the accumulation and persistence of species during glacial periods, thus resulting in the diverse forests observed today. The pollen and isotope data presented here indicate some marked changes in abundance but no significant loss in moist forest taxa through the last glacial maximum, thereby providing support for the long-term environmental stability of the Eastern Arc. Anthropogenic activities, including burning and forest clearance, were found to play a moderate role in shaping the mosaic of forest patches and high-altitude grasslands that characterise the site today; however, this influence was tempered by the inaccessibility of the mountain.     

A 24,700-yr paleolimnological history from the Peruvian Andes

A new paleolimnological dataset from Lake Pacucha (13 °S, 3095 m elevation) in the Peruvian Andes provides evidence of changes in lake level over the past 24,700 yr. A late-glacial highstand in lake level gave way to an early-Holocene lowstand. This transition appears to have paralleled precessional changes that would have reduced insolation during the wet-season. The occurrence of benthic/salt-tolerant diatoms and CaCO₃ deposition suggest that the lake had lost much of its volume by c. 10,000 cal yr BP. Pronounced Holocene oscillations in lake level included a second phase of low lake level and heightened volatility lasting from c. 8300 to 5000 cal yr BP. While a polymictic lake formed at c. 5000 cal yr BP. These relatively wet conditions were interrupted by a series of drier events, the most pronounced of which occurred at c. 750 cal yr BP. Paleolimnological changes in the Holocene were more rapid than those of either the last glacial maximum or the deglacial period.     

近50 a中国霜期的变化特征分析

通过对中国霜气象观测资料的整理和分析,研究了1957-2006年中国霜期、初霜日、终霜日的时空分布和气候特征.结果表明,中国各地的霜期总体上是自北向南、自高山向平原逐渐缩短的,霜期长(短)的地区与初霜早(晚)、终霜晚(早)的地区非常一致.近50 a来,在全球增暖的背景下,中国大部分地区霜期在逐渐缩短,初霜日在逐渐推迟,终霜日在不断提前,1990s后这种趋势变得更加明显.霜期缩短显著的区域主要集中在我国东北、华北、内蒙古中部、江淮流域以及云贵高原和华南部分地区,而四川盆地和长江中下游部分地区霜期缩短的趋势并不明显,一些地方甚至略有延长的趋势.比较初霜日期与终霜日期的趋势变化,发现终霜日提前的趋势要比初霜日推后的趋势更加明显,这可能是由不同季节的增温幅度不同而引起的.     

末次盛冰期以来南海南部天然气水合物储库变化及其对环境的影响

末次盛冰期以来南海南部海平面及海洋底水温度均发生了很大的变化. 为了研究南海南部天然气水合物稳定带厚度在这个过程中的变化情况及其对环境的影响,我们利用相关的计算公式,并编制了计算稳定带厚度的程序,在南海南部的南沙海槽、曾母盆地、巴拉望盆地和苏禄海等四个重点海域选取了35个点进行末次盛冰期及目前稳定带厚度的计算. 计算结果表明,南海南部末次盛冰期和目前的天然气水合物稳定带厚度分别为262m和233m;甲烷资源量分别为269×1013m3和239×1013m3;水合物资源量分别为164×1011m3和146×1011m3. 这说明自末次盛冰期以来,南海南部稳定带厚度平均减薄了29m,平均减薄百分比为12%,同时释放了大约30×1012m3的甲烷,这些甲烷对环境产生了较大影响,对末次冰期的结束起了较大作用.