A case study of coping strategies and landslides in two villages of Central-Eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal’s Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.     

Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in El Salvador using logistic regression

This work has evaluated the probability of earthquake-triggered landslide occurrence in the whole of El Salvador, with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and a logistic regression model. Slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness are the predictor variables used to determine the dependent variable of occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides within an individual grid cell. The results illustrate the importance of terrain roughness and soil type as key factors within the model — using only these two variables the analysis returned a significance level of 89.4%. The results obtained from the model within the GIS were then used to produce a map of relative landslide susceptibility.     

Mapping landslide susceptibility from small datasets: A case study in the Pays de Herve (E Belgium)

A landslide susceptibility map is proposed for the Pays de Herve (E Belgium), where large landslides affect Cretaceous clay outcrop areas. Based on a Bayesian approach, this GIS-supported probabilistic map identifies the areas most susceptible to deep landslides. The database is comprised of the source areas of ten pre-existing landslides (i.e. a sample of 154 grid cells) and of six environmental data layers, namely lithology, proximity to active faults, slope angle and aspect, elevation and distance to the nearest valley-floor. A 30-m-resolution DEM from the Belgian National Geographical Institute is used for the analysis. Owing to the small size of the sample, a special cross-validation procedure of the susceptibility map is performed, which uses in an iterative way each of the landslides to test the predictive power of the map derived from the other landslides. Four different sets of variables are used to produce four susceptibility maps, whose prediction curves are compared. While the prediction rates associated with the models not involving the “proximity to active fault” criterion are comparable to those of the models considering this variable, strong weaknesses inherent in the fault data on which the latter rely suggest that the final susceptibility map should be based on a model that excludes any reference to fault. This highlights the difference between a triggering factor and determining factors, and in the same time broadens the scope of the produced map. A single reactivated slide is also used to test the possibility of predicting future reactivation of existing landslides in the area. Finally, the need for geomorphological control over the mathematical treatment is underlined in order to obtain realistic prediction maps.     

1990-2019年贡嘎山地区典型冰川表碛覆盖变化及其空间差异

表碛覆盖型冰川是中国西部较为常见的冰川类型。表碛层存在于大气—冰川冰界面,强烈影响大气圈与冰冻圈之间的热交换。表碛厚度的空间异质性可极大地改变冰川的消融率和物质平衡过程,进而影响冰川径流过程和下游水资源。基于Landsat TM/TIRS数据,运用能量平衡方程反演了贡嘎山地区冰川表碛厚度,研究了贡嘎山地区冰川在1990—2019年间表碛覆盖范围及厚度变化情况,同时对比了东西坡差异。结果表明：① 贡嘎山地区冰川表碛扩张总面积达43.824 km²。其中,海螺沟冰川扩张2.606 km²、磨子沟冰川1.959 km²、燕子沟冰川1.243 km²、大贡巴冰川0.896 km²、小贡巴冰川0.509 km²、南门关沟冰川2.264 km²,年均扩张率分别为3.2%、11.1%、1.5%、0.9%、1.0%和6.5%;② 海螺沟冰川、磨子沟冰川、燕子沟冰川、大贡巴冰川、小贡巴冰川、南门关沟冰川表碛平均增厚分别为5.2 cm、3.1 cm、3.7 cm、6.8 cm、7.3 cm和13.1 cm;③ 西坡冰川表碛覆盖度高,表碛覆盖年均扩张率低,冰川末端退缩量小;东坡冰川表碛覆盖年均扩张率高,但表碛覆盖度总体低于西坡,冰川末端退缩量大。     

冀中坳陷中部现今热岩石圈厚度及地热学意义探讨

热岩石圈厚度是研究盆地的构造演化和板块动力学的重要参数,本文通过实测数据构建地壳分层模型,根据热传导的基本原理,计算了冀中坳陷中部的Moho面温度以及热岩石圈厚度,并探讨其地热学意义。结果表明:冀中坳陷中部的Moho面温度分布在500～600℃,西南侧整体温度较东北部高,热岩石圈厚度介于102～122km,其平面展布特征与华北克拉通热岩石圈厚度西厚东薄的特征相吻合,为华北克拉通受太平洋板块西向俯冲导致东部遭受破坏提供了依据,并且较薄的岩石圈使热流更易传导到地壳浅部,成为了该地区热异常的成因背景。     

南平市红星滑坡泥石流特征及成因

该滑坡泥石流特征为,流域面积小,流程短,规模小,以坡面型为主,多由滑坡崩塌转化而来,发生频率低,突发性强,危害大。文章揭示在植被覆盖的花岗岩地区,持续强降雨引发群发性浅层土质滑坡,在斜坡微凹处或小沟谷,易转化成泥石流,形成灾害链。对该类型滑坡泥石流特征及成因进行分析,为福建省乃至全国同类型滑坡-泥石流的防治提供经验。     

地下采矿诱发斜坡移动变形分析

地下采矿与滑坡的关系问题是近期社会关注的热点问题。基于对此问题已有研究的不足,以及随机介质理论在矿区地表移动与变形预测中的广泛应用,探索采用随机介质理论方法对地下采矿条件下坡体的移动变形规律进行研究。以重庆武隆鸡尾山崩滑体为研究对象,建立了坡体内两个地下采矿剖面的计算模型,并通过计算机编程辅助计算,对地下采矿条件下坡体的移动变形规律进行了分析,并对不同地下采矿工况分别进行了详细研究。计算表明,采矿诱发的坡体不均匀沉降加剧了鸡尾山坡体的移动下滑趋势,认为随机介质理论适用于地下采矿诱发的坡体移动变形分析。     

滑坡的摩擦力与正压力力偶的地震波场模拟

滑坡的地震波反演是确定滑坡动力学过程的有效途径.然而,目前的滑坡地震波反演大多基于点源模型,将滑坡面近似为点源,仅考虑滑体作用于滑床的摩擦力及其变化.但实际滑坡过程中,由于重力和滑动距离的存在,滑床还受到一个逐渐增加的正压力力偶作用.为定量探讨这一正压力力偶对滑坡地震波场的贡献,我们基于有限滑坡面模型,分别正演模拟了滑坡过程中摩擦力和正压力力偶的地震波场,得到了正压力力偶地震波场在整个滑坡地震波场中的能量比例及其随距离的变化.研究发现,正压力力偶地震波场具备近场项衰减特征,相较于摩擦力波场随距离衰减更快.正演模拟显示,正压力力偶地震波场在滑坡尺度2~3倍距离范围内较为显著;但在更远距离上,由于其幅度大致随距离的平方衰减,其贡献几可忽略.此外,正压力力偶波场在波形特征上与摩擦力波场也存在明显区别,二者的相对大小与摩擦系数和坡度等参数密切相关.本文模拟分析表明,完整的滑坡近场地震波场应该同时考虑摩擦力和正压力力偶的贡献;滑坡动力学参数反演中,利用近场地震波记录,考虑有限尺度的滑坡面,原则上我们不仅可以确定传统滑坡动力学参数,还有可能确定摩擦系数和流体压力等参数在空间上的变化分布.

     

佛顶山钙铬榴石分布特征及其找矿意义

本区钙铬榴石含钙铝榴石分子，两者组成类质同像系列矿物，颜色和透明度随成分变化而变化。目前找到的钙铬榴石成翠绿色十分美丽。但是，透明者少，粒度均小于４ｍｍ，达不到宝石级标准。但埋于坡积层中的含钙铬榴石铬透辉石岩的转石风化强烈，钙铬榴石易于脱出，晶体保存完整，采选容易，是寻找宝石的理想地区。     

东乡县湿陷性黄土回填碾压的施工控制措施

针对东乡县湿陷性黄土回填碾压质量要求及控制工序,用运碾压厚度试验、含水率试验、碾压遍数试验、碾压速度试验等,从湿陷性黄土回填碾压的两个控制工序,即黄土回填和黄土碾压出发,全面系统的分析了压实度影响因素并提出了施工控制措施。研究表明,在相同压实条件下,适宜的回填厚度有益提高压实度质量和效益;确定最佳含水率后,在施工中不影响施工质量的前提下,相对扩大土的含水率控制范围,既能达到整体压实稳定,又能加快施工进度;在相同的回填条件下,同一深度的压实度随压实机械功能增大,压实度越高;在相同压实功能条件下,同一深度范围内碾压遍数越多,压实度越高;增加压实功能的办法提高土基强度的效果有一定限度,吨位增加到一定限度以上,效果提高愈为缓慢;碾压速度加倍时,碾压遍数相应加倍,应针对具体碾压材料层和所用压路机,通过铺筑试验区域选择合适的碾压速度。