An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

Field‐based and spectral indicators for soil erosion mapping in semi‐arid mediterranean environments (Coastal Cordillera of central Chile)

The Coastal Cordillera of central Chile is naturally sensitive to soil erosion due to moderate to steep slopes, intense winter rains when the vegetation cover is scarce, and deeply weathered granitic rocks. In 1965, 60 per cent of its surface was moderately to very severely eroded. Today this process is still largely active, but no data are currently available to evaluate the real extent, distribution and severity of soil degradation on a regional scale. This information is vital to support efficient soil conservation plans. A multi‐scale approach was implemented to produce regional land degradation maps based on remote sensing technologies. Fieldwork has shown that the surface colour or ‘redness’ and the density of coarse fragments are pertinent erosion indicators to describe a typical sequence of soil degradation in the context of mediterranean soil developed on granitic materials and micaschists. Field radiometric experiments concluded that both factors influence the reflectance of natural surfaces and can be modelled using radiometric indices accessible from most satellites operating in the optical domain, i.e. redness index and brightness index. Finally the radiometric indices were successfully applied to SPOT images to produce land degradation maps. Only broad classes of erosion status were discriminated and the detection of the degradation processes was only possible when most of the fertile layer had already been removed. This technology provides decision‐making information required to develop regional soil conservation plans and to prioritize actions between catchment areas, especially in vast inter‐tropical regions where spatialized data are not always readily available. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于自然资源管理的新型基础测绘研究

新一轮的职能改革赋予自然资源部门新的职责,文章在分析了现有自然资源业务数据和基础测绘数据的基础上结合自然资源管理需求,提出了新型基础测绘的相关技术要求、应用方向和地理实体数据的技术路线,为新型基础测绘的开展提供了有益探索,为基础测绘服务自然资源管理提供了理论依据。     

黄土高原风成沉积物磁化率各向异性研究

中国黄土高原粉尘堆积以往注重从物源区携带粉尘的古风向,对粉尘沉积→固结期的古风向缺乏研究。本文评述了近年来应用黄土高原黄土、红粘土磁化率各向异性研究古季风风向变迁所取得的一些重要进展并指出磁化率各向异性最大轴和最小轴的方位和倾伏均与沉积→固结期风向变化密切相关。黄土磁组构结果与利用各种统计方法计算出的古风向在多个剖面与现代夏季风方向相似,由此推论黄土是冬季风带来的沙尘在经历夏季风携带的降雨洗礼后才固结而成。而在黄土之下的红粘土地层中的初步研究发现磁组构显示明显的西风带沉积特征,指出这一现象将在今后研究中继续深入探讨。     

Frequency–volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

Rainfall-induced landslides constitute a major public concern in Hong Kong. This paper investigates two aspects of critical importance to landslide hazard and risk assessment and management: magnitude–cumulative frequency relationship for landslides, and relationship between rainfall and the occurrence of landslides. The results indicated that landslides with a failure volume of not less than 4 m³ have a cumulative frequency–size distribution with a power-law dependence on volume of failure. Analysis of rainfall/landslides showed that the 12-hour rolling rainfall is most important in predicting the number of landslides. Failure volume dependency in the relationships between rainfall and the number of landslides is also presented. However, with an increase in failure volume of landslides, the most important rainfall variable may vary from rainfall of short duration (12-h rolling rainfall) to that of relatively long duration (24-h rolling rainfall).     

Micro-sheeting of granite and its relationship with landsliding specifically after the heavy rainstorm in June 1999, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan

Certain types of granite in mountainous areas are microscopically sheeted to a depth of 50 m due to unloading under the stress field that reflects slope morphology. Micro-sheets generally strike parallel to major slope surfaces and gently dip downslope, forming cataclinal overdip slopes. The cataclinal overdip slope accelerates creep movement of micro-sheeted granite, which in turn loosens and disintegrates granite via the widening or neoformation of cracks, probably in combination with stress release, temperature change, and changes in water content near the ground surface. The surface portion of micro-sheeted granite is thus loosened with a well-defined basal front, which finally slides in response to heavy rain. Innumerable landslides of this type occurred in Hiroshima Prefecture, western Japan, following the heavy rainstorm of 29 June 1999. Following such landslides, the weathering of micro-sheeted granite exposed on the landslide scar recommences, setting the stage for future landslide.     

暴雨对土坡稳定性影响综合分析

大多数滑坡都是在暴雨期间发生的,但是对于暴雨诱发滑坡的机制研究得还并不完善.因而从研究坡体稳定性的普遍极限条分法人手,全面总结了暴雨对坡体稳定性的影响,并据此提出了预防暴雨期间坡体失稳的措施.     

220 ka以来萨拉乌苏河流域地层磁化率与气候变化

 萨拉乌苏河流域滴哨沟湾剖面磁化率变化结果表明:近220 ka来我国北方气候变化极不稳定,存在着不同尺度的频繁变化,特别是寒冷气候阶段变化尤为频繁,其中倒数第二次冰期存在5个气候旋回,末次冰期存在10个气候旋回。这些气候变化与深海氧同位素、极地冰芯反映的全球变化具有良好的对应关系,反映了该区气候变化与全球变化的一致性。控制本区气候变化的主要因素是全球冰量变化及太阳辐射影响的东亚季风变化。     

柴达木盆地大红沟剖面新生代地层岩石磁学 特征与环境演变

通过对柴达木盆地大红沟剖面新生代沉积物岩石磁学的研究,探讨青藏高原东北部的构造活动与气候变化。典型样品的热退磁曲线表明,磁铁矿含量随地层年代的变新而增大。沉积物的磁化率由老至新划分为5个阶段,随时代变新而不断增大,与磁铁矿含量的增大相吻合。柴达木盆地沉积物磁化率值的变化与气候变化关系密切:①约43Ma,磁化率增大是全球气候变冷变干导致沉积物中磁铁矿含量增加所致;②约33Ma,磁化率增大是全球气候加速变冷的结果;③22Ma左右,青藏高原整体隆升,控制中国大陆环境的气候系统由行星风系转变为季风风系,亚洲内陆开始干旱化,致使更多的磁铁矿得以保存,磁化率值再度增大;④14Ma青藏高原东北缘发生区域构造抬升,西北干旱区进一步扩大,东亚季风明显加强,同时全球冰量扩张,导致柴达木盆地沉积物的磁化率整体增大,而且波动幅度和频率增大。     

月球光学遥感与制图研究进展

在月球探测活动中,光学成像探测是任务重点,也是信息量最大的数据源。航天技术和传感器技术的发展促进了月球光学遥感的发展,月球科学研究也越来越依赖于高分辨率遥感数据,对月球光学遥感与制图的研究是月球探测的关键问题之一。本文扼要论述了其中的几个方面,包括月球光学遥感数据获取系统、月球遥感立体测绘和制图,以及月球控制网构建等方面的研究进展。