Inelastic seismic spectra including a damage criterion: A stochastic approach

In this paper, a stochastic approach for obtaining damage-based inelastic seismic spectra is proposed. The Park and Ang damage model, which includes displacement ductility and hysteretic energy, is adopted to take into account the cumulative damage phenomenon in structural systems under strong ground motions. Differently from previous studies in this field, damage-based seismic spectra are obtained by means of peak theory of stochastic processes. The following stochastic inelastic seismic spectra are constructed and then analyzed: damage-based displacement and acceleration inelastic spectra, damage-based response modification factor spectra, damage-based yield strength demand spectra and damage-based inelastic displacement ratio spectra.     

Performance of the COSERO precipitation–runoff model under non-stationary conditions in basins with different climates

Abstract

This study is a contribution to a model intercomparison experiment initiated during a workshop at the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. We present discharge simulations with the conceptual precipitation–runoff model COSERO in 11 basins located under different climates in Europe, Africa and Australia. All of the basins exhibit some form of non-stationary conditions, due, for example, to warming, droughts or land-cover change. The evaluation of the daily discharge simulations focuses on the overall model performance and its decomposition into three components measuring temporal dynamics, mean flow volume and distribution of flows. Calibration performance is similarly high as in previous COSERO applications. However, when looking at evaluation periods independent of the calibration, the model performance drops considerably, mainly due to severely biased discharge simulations in semi-arid basins with strong non-stationarity in rainfall. Simulations are more robust in European basins with humid climates. This highlights the fact that hydrological models frequently fail when simulations are required outside of calibration conditions in basins with non-stationary conditions. As a consequence, calibration periods should be sufficiently long to include both wet and dry periods, which should yield more robust predictions.     

Hydrological impact of forest-fire from paired-catchment and rainfall–runoff modelling perspectives

Abstract

This study deals with the Rimbaud catchment, a sub-catchment within the Réal Collobrier hydrological observatory in southeastern France, managed by Irstea since 1966. This observatory suffered a wildfire in 1990. Because of the dense network of streamgauges and raingauges available, this site provides a unique opportunity to test and compare two types of analysis, one based on paired catchments and the other a rainfall–runoff model, used to assess the hydrological impact of forest fire. In the present case, more than 20 years of pre-fire and post-fire data are available. We compare the ability of the two approaches to detect gradual changes at a daily time step. This case study illustrates how natural climatic variability (here a long drought which preceded the wildfire) can make the identification of hydrological changes extremely difficult.     

Multi-Rate Mass Transfer (MRMT) models for general diffusive porosity structures

We determine the relevance of Multi-Rate Mass Tansfer (MRMT) models (Haggerty and Gorelick, 1995) to general diffusive porosity structures. To this end, we introduce Structured INteracting Continua (SINC) models as the combination of a finite number of diffusion-dominated interconnected immobile zones exchanging with an advection-dominated mobile domain. It directly extends Multiple INteracting Continua framework (Pruess and Narasimhan, 1985) by introducing a structure in the immobile domain, coming for example from the dead-ends of fracture clusters or poorly-connected dissolution patterns. We demonstrate that, whatever their structure, SINC models can be made equivalent in terms of concentration in the mobile zone to a unique MRMT model. We develop effective shape-free numerical methods to identify its few dominant rates, that comply with any distribution of rates and porosities. We show that differences in terms of macrodispersion are not larger than 50% for approximate MRMT models with only one rate (double porosity models), and drop down to less than 0.1% for five rates MRMT models. Low-dimensional MRMT models accurately approach transport in structured diffusive porosities at intermediate and long times and only miss early responses.     

Hydrological effects of within-catchment heterogeneity of drainage density

Local drainage density (dd) has been traditionally defined as the inverse of twice the distance one has to walk before encountering a channel. This formalization easily allows to derive raster-based maps of dd extracted straight off from digital elevation model data. Maps of local dd, which are continuous in space, are able to reveal the appearance of strong heterogeneities in the geological and geomorphological properties of natural landscapes across different scales. In this work we employ the information provided by these spatial maps to study the potential effects of the within-catchment variability of dd on the hydrologic response. A simple power law relationship between runoff yield at the local scale and the value of dd has been adopted; the hypothesis is supported by a large number of past empirical observations and modeling. The novel framework proposed (ddRWF) embeds this spatially variable runoff weight in the well-known Rescaled Width Function (RWF) framework, based on the more general geomorphological theory of the hydrologic response. The model is applied to four sub-basins in the Cascade Range Region (Oregon, USA) where strong contrasts in dissection patterns due the underlain geology have been broadly addressed in previous literature. The ddRWF approach is compared with the classic RWF in terms of shape, moments and peak of the simulated hydrograph response. Results hint that the variability of runoff yield due to the heterogeneity of dd (i.e. of hillslope lengths) determines a more rapid concentration of runoff, which implies shorter lag times, larger skewness and higher peak floods, especially in the case hillslope velocity is much smaller than channel velocity. The potential of the proposed framework relies on accounting for spatially variable losses related to geomorphologic heterogeneity in lumped rainfall–runoff models, still keeping the simple and robust structure of the IUH approach.     

A steady nonlinear and singular vortex Rossby wave within a rapidly rotating vortex. Part II: Application to geophysical vortices

In a previous paper, Caillol [Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 2014, 108] investigated the steady nonlinear vortical structure of a singular vortex Rossby mode that has survived to a strong critical-layer-like interaction with a linearly stable, columnar, axisymmetric and dry vortex. We presented a general theory for this wave/mean flow interaction through the nonlinear critical layer theory and calculated the mean azimuthal and axial winds induced at the critical radius at the end of this interaction in the final stage. We here apply that theory to rapidly rotating geophysical vortices: tropical cyclones, cold-air mesocyclones and tornadoes. We find that the numerous assumptions invoked in that paper agree well with the reality of those intense vortices. We also find that in spite of a lack of moist-convection modelling, this dry vortex is fairly well accelerated at the critical radius by such a shear wave with a magnitude of order the square root of the damped-wave amplitude. The intensification level strongly depends on the aspect ratio, height of the system: rapid vortex and parent vortex, over core radius. The thinner the vortex is, the sharper the intensification is. This result is in sharp contrast to the numerous numerical simulations on VR wave/vortex interactions that yield a much smaller intensification of order the square of the wave amplitude. This weakly nonlinear approach nevertheless fails to model small vertical wavelength VR wave/vortex interactions for their related asymptotic expansions are divergent and for they yield strongly nonlinear VR waves coupled with evolving critical layers whose extent can no longer be considered as thin.     

Geospace perturbations induced by the Earth: The state of the art and future trends

A systematic multi-parameter and multi-platform approach to study the slow process of earthquake preparation is fundamental to gain some insights on this complex phenomenon. In particular, an important contribution is the integrated analysis between ground geophysical data and satellite data. In this paper we review some of the more recent results and suggest the next directions of this kind of research. Our intention is not to detect a particular precursor but to understand the physics underlying the various observations and to establish a reliable physical model of the preparation phase before an impending earthquake. In this way, future investigation will search for suitable fore-patterns, which the physical model of multi-layers coupling predicts and characterizes by quasi-synchronism in time and geo-consistency in space. We also present alternative explanations for some anomalies which are not actually related to earthquakes, rather to other natural or anthropic processes.     

Socioeconomic impacts of hydropower development on the Yibin–Chongqing section,upper reaches of the Yangtze River

The aim of this paper is to quantify the socioeconomic impacts of hydropower development to reflect its positive functions from multiple perspectives and dimensions. By applying the multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to a case study of the Yibin–Chongqing section along the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the analysis shows that hydropower development has outstanding benefits for the regional economy and livelihood improvement, as proved by various indicators including consumption, investment, GDP, employment, and income. Meanwhile, application of the CGE model provides an effective way to quantitatively assess the socioeconomic impact of hydropower and other clean energy development.     

Food web and fish stock changes in central Chile: comparing the roles of jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) predation,the environment,and fisheries

We analyzed recent food web and fish stock changes in the central Chile marine ecosystem, comparing the roles of jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) as predator, the environment, and fishing. To accomplish this we used food web modeling and the Ecopath with Ecosim software (EwE). The principal fish stocks have experienced wide decadal fluctuations in the past 30 years, including stock collapses of horse mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) and hake (Merluccius gayi), and there was a large influx of jumbo squid during the mid-2000s. We used two EwE models representing the food web off central Chile to test the hypothesis that predation by jumbo squid has been significant in explaining the dynamics of the main fishing resources and other species in the study area. Results indicate that predation by jumbo squid on fish stocks is lower than that of other predators (e.g. hake) and the fishery. Long-term fluctuations (1978–2004) in the biomass of the main fish stocks (as well as other components of the food web) seem to be related to fishing and to variation in primary production, rather than to predation by jumbo squid alone. Jumbo squid seems to play a role as predator rather than prey in the system, but its impacts are low when compared with the impacts of other predators and fishing. Therefore, we conclude that jumbo squid predation on its prey was not the primary force behind the collapse of important fish stocks off central Chile. Future efforts should be directed to better understanding factors that trigger sudden increases in jumbo squid abundance off central Chile, as well as modeling its trophic impacts.