张家口—渤海地震带岩石圈磁场时空变化特征

利用2016—2018年3期华北地区流动地磁矢量原始测量资料, 经数据计算获得2期华北地区和张家口—渤海地震活动带及邻区岩石圈磁场时空变化模型。 研究结果显示: 张家口—渤海地震带岩石圈磁场变化空间分布不均匀, 具有明显的分区特征, 在张家口段(西段)与北京段(中西段)分界处和北京段(中西段)与唐山段(中东段)分界处岩石圈磁场各要素具有明显的异常变化, 如水平矢量存在转向和幅值变化, 磁偏角与磁倾角具有正负异常高梯度带的特征, 这与张家口—渤海地震带构造分段性特征密切相关。 张家口—渤海地震带位于燕山块体与华北平原块体之间, 两者运动的平动速率之差是张家口—渤海地震带左旋走滑的直接动力来源, 而各断裂带左旋走滑速率之差很可能是岩石圈磁场空间变化分段性分布的主要原因。     

2022年云南宁蒗MS 5.5地震前云南地区异常特征分析

通过对2022年1月2日宁蒗M_S 5.5地震前震中附近地区地震学、地下流体、定点形变等观测资料进行分析,发现本次地震前多学科异常呈现以下特征： ① M_S 5.5地震发生在宁蒗地区M_S ≥ 5.0地震平静近10年背景下,震中附近M_L ≥ 3.0地震于震前1年形成空区,主震发生在空区边缘,空区长轴180 km,按照川滇地区统计公式计算,未来发生地震的震级为5.8±0.5,与宁蒗M_S 5.5地震大小相当; 2015年以来,震中附近50 km范围内M_L ≥ 3.0地震呈平静—活跃—平静—发震的特征; ②地球物理观测异常均于震前7个月内出现,集中分布在滇西北地区距震中300 km范围内,且水温和水位测项异常出现较早; ③定点形变采用NS向与EW向幅值相加来描述同一观测资料的变化,数据曲线幅值增大可作为临震异常3个月短期指标,距震中越近,观测台项异常比例越高;④大部分宏观异常出现在震前3个月内,宏观异常增多可作为时间预测判据。综合上述多学科异常,认为地震学异常出现最早,可用于判定发震区域,用流体和定点形变观测异常追踪时间,宏观异常更多作为短期判定指标,可为宁蒗地区M_S ≥ 5.0地震资料积累提供跟踪思路和方法。     

2022年门源MS 6.9地震序列特征及强余震判定

2022年1月8日青海门源发生M_S 6.9地震,基于青海地震台网对此次地震序列时空演化特征进行分析。结果表明,门源地震序列的空间展布整体上呈西段NWW、东段SE向的带状分布,且序列衰减较缓慢。另外,基于同一构造历史地震类比、h值、等待时间法等进行分析,认为门源M_S 6.9地震序列为主—余型;根据祁连地震带中东段5级以上地震最大余震发震时间统计和震级差特征分析认为,门源M_S 6.9地震的最大余震已经发生,即2022年1月12日18时20分的M_S 5.2地震。     

2016年新疆轮台MS 5.3地震序列尾波Qc值分析

基于Sato单次散射模型,利用轮台地震台单台记录,计算并分析2016年1月14日新疆轮台M_S5.3地震及余震序列尾波Q_c值震后变化,拟合得出Q_c值随频率的变化关系为Q_c (f) =（18.0±3.19）f^1.184±0.072。结果表明,Q_c值在序列初期起伏较大,随着强震后能量的释放,Q_c值趋于平缓;低频段的Q_c值在较大余震发生前有显著变化;不同中心频率点的Q_c值变化形态不一致。对Q_c值变化特征的研究,可为地震预报提供参考依据。     

黑龙江多宝山——大新屯地区铜金多金属成矿作用及找矿方向

黑龙江省多宝山—大新屯地区,铜矿以中—晚加里东期多宝山式斑岩型、燕山早期三矿沟式矽卡岩型为主,晚古生界海底火山岩有关喷发—沉积型铜锌矿床,具优越的成矿潜力,不同时期、类型铜矿床在空间分布上明显受古生代海相火山岩—碳酸盐岩建造控制,并具有"上金下铜"的斑岩—热液型铜金矿成矿系统的特征。金矿以燕山晚期三道湾子式浅成低温热液型金成矿作用强烈为特点;持续时间由早石炭世—早—中侏罗世的韧性剪切—走滑作用、中侏罗世为主要伸展期的变质核杂岩有关的金成矿作用,以及奥陶纪浊积岩(卡林型)有关金成矿作用,以中—小规模金矿床(点)为主;金矿受北西向、北东向的火山构造、变质核杂岩构造和韧性剪切—走滑作用控制,显示出良好的金找矿前景;结合近期的铜金矿重大勘查进展和成果,总结成矿规律,梳理了制约着铜金多金属矿找矿突破的关键地质问题,提出找矿方向和今后勘查工作部署建议。     

中天山地块暗色岩墙LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄和岩石地球化学特征

中天山地块发育有大量的暗色岩墙,主要走向为北北西。对中天山暗色岩墙进行LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年,获得的年龄为304.8±1.5Ma,表明其形成于晚石炭世。这些暗色岩墙具有较高的Si O2,较低的Mg、Cr、Ni含量。它们富集大离子亲石元素(Rb、Ba、Th),亏损高场强元素(Nb、Ta、Ti),显示俯冲相关特征。上述特征暗示,中天山暗色岩墙可能是由俯冲板片流体交代的地幔楔部分熔融形成的。这一发现表明,准噶尔洋的闭合应该发生在晚石炭世之后。     

Reflections on the current state of global climate response

What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the ‘Bali Action Plan’, are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of ‘Realpolitik’ in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non- Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large—thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.     

Climate negotiations beyond Kyoto: developing countries concerns and interests

Abstract

Five years down the road from Kyoto, the Protocol that bears that city's name still awaits enough qualifying ratifications to come into force. While attention has been understandably focussed on the ratification process, it is time to begin thinking about the next steps for the global climate regime, particularly in terms of a deeper inclusion of developing countries' concerns and interests. This paper begins doing so from the perspective of the developing countries. The principal argument is that we need to return to the basic principles outlined in the Framework Convention on Climate Change in searching for a north—south bargain on climate change. Such a bargain may be achievable if we can realign the policy architecture of the climate regime to its original stated goals of sustainable development.     

Economics of climate change: risk and responsibility by world region

The impacts of predicted climate change will not be distributed evenly around the world. As post-Kyoto negotiations unfold, relating the geographical distribution of projected impacts to responsibility for emissions among world regions is essential for achieving an equitable path forward. This article surveys the current knowledge of regional climate consequences, and delves into the regional predictions of economic assessment models to date, examining how the uncertainties, assumptions and ethical dimensions influence the portrayal of risk at this scale. The few studies that quantitatively compared regional risk and responsibility are reviewed, and the analytical framework from one such study is applied to the 2006 Stern Review's projections to give the first regional comparison to take purchasing power and welfare considerations into account. Synthesizing burden and blame in this way is informative for policy makers; the world's most vulnerable communities—in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Latin America, and small island states—accounted for less than 33% of global greenhouse gas emissions over the period 1961–2000, but may experience more than 75% of the ensuing climate damages this century. This analysis reinforces the call for industrialized nations to lead mitigation efforts, and to do so decisively and swiftly.     

UTEVA树脂分离纯化珊瑚中铀、钍的改进研究

珊瑚是记录海洋环境变化信息的载体之一,测定其U/Ca比值可重建海水温度或测定Th/U同位素比值可计算年龄重建海平面高度等.准确测定珊瑚中U、Th含量及同位素比值是提取所记载的海洋环境变化信息的前提,其难点在于高Ca基体分离和痕量U、Th富集纯化.基于此,本研究拟采用UTEVA树脂改进了一步富集分离珊瑚中U、Th的前处理...