数字化曲线的附加系统参数平差

针对一般地图数字化曲线拟合方法的不足,提出了利用附加系统参数平差计算拟合曲线的参数。在参数平差中,将数字化曲线的X坐标和Y坐标均看作观测值,综合处理偶然误差和系统误差的联合影响,并评定精度。用t分布对系统参数进行显著性检验,结果表明附加系统参数模型正确。     

附加系统参数的半参数回归模型研究与比较

引入半参数的思想对附加系统参数的混合模型进行新解,推导出了模型正则化矩阵时参数平差的计算方法,求出了参数、非参数的估计量,模型的精度评定公式;通过模拟算例证明了半参数估计法的有效性;并对附加系统参数的半参数模型做了进一步的扩展。     

“96.8”暴雨过程的尺度分离动能方程的诊断

用尺度分离的动能平衡方程,对1996年8月3～5日华北地区台风暴雨过程雨区内的动能制造和转换进行诊断。结果表明:动能在暴雨发展过程逐渐减小,动能转换项也是逐渐减小的。暴雨发生前,尺度相互作用制造项GKMS起最重要的作用,大尺度动能制造项次之,中尺度动能制造项消耗少量的动能;暴雨发生时,尺度相互作用和天气尺度运动仍制造动能,只是比发生前明显减少,中尺度运动由消耗动能转变为制造动能,动能转换主要来源于低层且数值明显减少;暴雨发生后,动能制造项数值仍为正,此时天气尺度动能制造最重要,但数值比前两阶段小,动能的转换主要出现于高层。可见,此次暴雨过程总动能的制造项一直为正,主要出现于高层,只是其制造量逐渐减小;动能转换是从低层向高层进行的,水平转换项起主要作用,是一种尺度减小的动能转换过程。     

关于边界层阻力定律在非定常均匀条件下的推广

用自由大气实际风速取代地转风,得到了非定常均匀条件下阻力定律和边界层内参数的一些性质及相似性函数Ａ、Ｂ的特性。该方法和结果可应用于大气模式中的边界层参数化以及与相似性函数有关的一些研究。     

Bayesian seismic inversion for estimating fluid content and fracture parameters in a gas-saturated fractured porous reservoir

Understanding the effects of in situ fluid content and fracture parameters on seismic characteristics is important for the subsurface exploration and production of fractured porous rocks. The ratio of normal-to-shear fracture compliance is typically utilized as a fluid indicator to evaluate anisotropy and identify fluids filling the fractures, but it represents an underdetermined problem because this fluid indicator varies as a function of both fracture geometry and fluid content. On the bases of anisotropic Gassmann's equation and linear-slip model, we suggest an anisotropic poroelasticity model for fractured porous reservoirs. By combining a perturbed stiffness matrix and asymptotic ray theory, we then construct a direct relationship between the PP-wave reflection coefficients and characteristic parameters of fluids(P-and S-wave moduli) and fractures(fracture quasi-weaknesses), thereby decoupling the effects of fluid and fracture properties on seismic reflection characterization.By incorporating fracture quasi-weakness parameters, we propose a novel parameterization method for elastic impedance variation with offset and azimuth(EIVOA). By incorporating wide-azimuth observable seismic reflection data with regularization constraints, we utilize Bayesian seismic inversion to estimate the fluid content and fracture parameters of fractured porous rocks. Tests on synthetic and real data demonstrate that fluid and fracture properties can be reasonably estimated directly from azimuthal seismic data and the proposed approach provides a reliable method for fluid identification and fracture characterization in a gas-saturated fractured porous reservoir.     

Determination of Euler parameters of Philippine Sea plate and the inferences

Euler vectors of 12 plates, including Philippine Sea plate (PH), relative to a randomly fixed Pacific plate(PA) were determined by inverting the 1122 data from NUVEL-1 global plate motion model, earthquake slip vectors along Philippine Sea plate boundary, and GPS observed velocities. Euler vectors of Philippine Sea plate relative to adjacent plates are also gained. Our results are well consistent with observed data and can satisfy the geological and geophysical constraints along the Caroline(CR)-PH and PA-CR boundaries. Deformation of Philippine Sea plate is also discussed by using the plate motion Euler parameters.     

Source parameters of some large earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean region based on an itertive maximum entropy technique

TeleseismicP-waves of some large earthquakes that occurred in the eastern Mediterranean region have been analysed by using an iterative maximum entropy technique in order to obtain the independent spectral parameters, the long-period spectral level ₀ and the corner frequencyf ₀ of the far-field displacement spectra.Based on these parameters, the seismic source parameters seismic momentM ₀, source dimensionr, fault lengthl, average displacement u, shear stress drop , radiated energyE _s and apparent stressn are calculated for the considered earthquakes by using Brune's and Madariaga's models.The striking feature of the source parameters obtained in this study is the low stress drop value which varies between 5 and 15 bars. If Madariaga's model had been used, higher stress drop values would have been obtained.The low stress drop earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean region might be interpreted either by the possible presence of low strength material near the source or by the partial stress drop model.     

场地地震安全性评价中确定设计地震动参数方面若干问题的研究

研究了确定设计地震动参数中涉及的若干问题,其中包括基岩水平加速度反应谱衰减关系的选择、震源深度对基岩水平加速度峰值及基岩反应谱曲线的影响、强度包络线函数及输入随机相位的选择、土体非线性特性参数和土层剪切波速值的选择、设计地震动反应谱的标定等问题。在有关方面的研究中基于一个典型场地计算剖面,采用一维等效线性化模型并通过逐项变换某些研究参数的方法,研究了有关方面对设计地震动参数可能产生的影响及存在的误差和相应的规律,有关研究结果对合理确定设计地震动参数具有一定的实用价值。     

长安—临潼断裂的活动与西安地区地震危险性探讨

阐述了西安地区最大规模的长安-临潼断裂带的展布、构造形迹、运动特征。指出了它是西安地区地震活动的主要发震构造。根据其地震活动特征等分析,对断裂带未来危险性作了评估。     

天山中东段地区震源参数的初步应用研究

采用多台多地震联合反演的方法,首先得到了新疆天山中东段地区2001年以来MS≥2.5的105次中小地震的震源谱,进而测定了地震矩、拐角频率与应力降等震源参数,并讨论了它们之间的相互关系。在此基础上开展了该研究区应力降时空变化的动态跟踪工作,最后对研究区2004年6月以前的应力降时空演化特征做了一定程度的探讨。分析表明,该地区的地震矩、拐角频率与应力降等震源参数与震级有一定的相关性,应力降的时空演化特征可以作为该地区今后地震趋势预测的一种新手段。