Effect of Aftershocks on Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Hebei Seismic Zone,China

In this paper,the earthquake hazard parameters(λm,b and Mmax) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation.The declusterd catalogues have been compoiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period.As an example,Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966,to 1976,The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λm,b is significant.The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period,at most,45% and 90%,respectively,But the diffeence in Mmax is smaller,Based on this,the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made,but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.     

Seismological Activities in Laos

This report describes briefly the natural conditions and effect of earthquakes in Laos,Though Laos is not severely affected by earthquakes,it is doing its best to start seismological activity through the bilateral cooperation with China and with other ASEAN countries and through the framework of ASEAN-China cooperation.     

Sunspot numbers and area-weighted united states monthly temperature and precipitation

Spectral analyses were made of derived area-index series of areas subject to extreme temperatures and precipitation as well as cross-spectral analyses of the area-index series with double sunspot cycle (Zurich) numbers. Superposed epoch analyses also were made of area-index series versus various double-sunspot cycle phases. Area series for wet and dry Junes, warm Junes, defined June drought, and warm Januaries all show statistically significant double sunspot cycle (21 year) periodicities. The 21-year cycle of above-normal June precipitation is most striking and has not received previous recognition.Journal Paper No. J-10007 of the Iowa Agric. and Home Econ. Exp. Stn., Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011, Project 2397.     

永安地磁台地磁总强映震效果初探

本文针对我省“十五”要进行的地震前兆观测台网改造 ,通过对 1 990年以来我省及邻近地区中强以上地震前永安地磁变化的分析 ,初步总结了永安地磁手段在我省中强以上地震映震效果     

河南省2002—01—12雷暴成因探析

利用实时资料，分析了2002—01—12河南省雷暴产生前后的大气能量和动力条件，揭示了雷暴的成因。     

预防锤击预制桩挤土效应的措施与效果

对沉桩施工过程中所产生的问题及其对周围建筑物等设施造成影响做了初步分析。以上海海怡花园预制桩工程为例，介绍几种预防和减少预制桩施工挤土效应的方法，并对几种方法的实践成果作了论述。     

Probabilistic landslide susceptibility and factor effect analysis

The susceptibility of landslides and the effect of landslide-related factors at Penang in Malaysia using the geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data have been evaluated. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and from field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. The factors chosen that influence landslide occurrence were: topographic slope, topographic aspect, topographic curvature and distance from drainage, all from the topographic database; lithology and distance from lineament, taken from the geologic database; land use from Landsat Thermatic Mapper (TM) satellite images; and the vegetation index value from SPOT HRV (High-Resolution Visible) satellite images. Landslide hazardous areas were analyzed and mapped using the landslide-occurrence factors employing the probability–frequency ratio method using the all factors. To assess the effect of these factors, each factor was excluded from the analysis, and its effect verified using the landslide location data. As a result, all factors had relatively positive effects, except lithology, on the landslide susceptibility maps in the study area.     

The influence of river discharge on tidal damping in alluvial estuaries

The tidal range, the difference between high water level and low water level, along an alluvial estuary can be described by Savenije's analytical equation [Journal of Hydrology 243 (2001) 205-215] analytical equation. This equation was derived from the complete St Venant equations in a Lagrangian reference frame. In the derivation of that equation the effect of river discharge was disregarded. Measurements in the Schelde Estuary show that this assumption is only valid in the lower part of the estuary, but that in the upper part the river discharge has an influence on tidal damping. In the downstream part of the estuary, where the cross-sectional area is large compared to the cross-sectional area of the river, it is correct to disregard the river discharge. However, in the upstream part of the estuary, where the cross-sectional area approaches that of the river, the fresh water discharge gains importance over the tidal flow and affects the tidal range. In this paper, the derivation of the analytical equation is expanded to include the effect of the river discharge. It is demonstrated that the river discharge can have a considerable influence on tidal damping in the upper reach of the estuary. The river discharge affects tidal damping primarily through friction. A critical point along the estuary is the point where there is a single slack, upstream of which the fresh water velocity is larger than the tidal velocity. The location of this point varies with the river discharge. From that point onwards the effect of river discharge on damping is dominant. It is the point where the estuary becomes primarily of riverine character.     

中国农业地质研究及其成效

论述了中国土壤质量和农作物优质高产与土壤环境中化学元素N、P、K、S、Fe、MR、Cu、ZB、B、Mo、V、Sr、Ti、Mg、La、Ce、Pr、Nd、Sm、Eu、Y、Gd、Tb、Dy、Ho、Er、Tm、Yb、Lu、Ga、Co、Ni、F、Tl、Si、Na、Cr、Pb、Cd、Hg、Se、Ba、Te、Ta及有机质、酸碱度、含水量、含盐量有密切的关系。提出了农业地质研究的目的、内容、方法及管理。     

IPCC第二次气候变化科学评估报告的主要科学成果和问题

介绍了政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)最近出版的第二次气候变化科学评估报告中的主要科学成果,并说明了今后3～4年中IPCC从科学上主要关注的问题。