Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Sedimentary petrology and geochemistry of siliciclastic rocks from the upper Jurassic Tordillo Formation (Neuquén Basin, western Argentina): Implications for provenance and tectonic setting

The Upper Jurassic Tordillo Formation is exposed along the western edge of the Neuquén Basin (west central Argentina) and consists of fluvial strata deposited under arid/semiarid conditions. The pebble composition of conglomerates, mineralogical composition of sandstones and pelitic rocks, and major- and trace-element geochemistry of sandstones, mudstones, and primary pyroclastic deposits are evaluated to determine the provenance and tectonic setting of the sedimentary basin. Conglomerates and sandstones derived almost exclusively from volcanic sources. The stratigraphic sections to the south show a clast population of conglomerates dominated by silicic volcanic fragments and a predominance of feldspathic litharenites. This framework composition records erosion of Triassic–Jurassic synrift volcaniclastic rocks and basement rocks from the Huincul arch, which was exhumed as a result of Late Jurassic inversion. In the northwestern part of the study area, conglomerates show a large proportion of mafic and acidic volcanic rock fragments, and sandstones are characterised by a high content of mafic volcanic rock fragments and plagioclase. These data suggest that the source of the sandstones and conglomerates was primarily the Andean magmatic arc, located west of the Neuquén Basin. The clay mineral assemblage is interpreted as the result of a complex set of factors, including source rock, climate, transport, and diagenesis. Postdepositional processes produced significant variations in the original compositions, especially the fine-grained deposits. The Tordillo sediments are characterised by moderate SiO₂ contents, variable abundances of K₂O and Na₂O, and a relatively high proportion of ferromagnesian elements. The degree of chemical weathering in the source area, expressed as the chemical index of alteration, is low to moderate. The major element geochemistry and Th/Sc, K/Rb, Co/Th, La/Sc, and Cr/Th values point to a significant input of detrital volcanic material of calcalkaline felsic and intermediate composition. However, major element geochemistry is not useful for interpreting the tectonic setting. Discrimination plots based on immobile trace elements, such as Ti, Zr, La, Sc, and Th, show that most data lie in the active continental margin field. Geochemical information is not sufficiently sensitive to differentiate the two different source areas recognized by petrographic and modal analyses of conglomerates and sandstones.     

First U–Pb SHRIMP age of the Hauterivian stage, Neuquén Basin, Argentina

A high-resolution ion-microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb zircon age from a tuff layer intercalated in the ammonoid bearing sedimentary succession of the Neuquén Basin in Argentina provides a robust geochronologic date to add to the absolute ages and to improve the relative chronology of the Early Cretaceous Hauterivian stage. The tuff layer appears interbedded between shales of the upper member (Agua de la Mula) of the Agrio Formation within the Spitidiscus riccardii ammonoid zone (base of the Late Hauterivian) yielding a date of 132.5 ± 1.3 Ma. This date confirms and supports an accurate correlation between the ammonoid biostratigraphy of the Neuquén Basin with the Western Mediterranean Province of the Tethys during the Early Cretaceous and matches with the most recently published time scale. It also casts doubts on the validity of K–Ar ages on glauconite-grains recently reported from the Lower Cretaceous of the Vocontian Basin of France.     

松南海坨子—大布苏地区泉四段— 姚家组层序地层研究

根据工区内现有的钻井、测井和地震资料,应用以多级次基准面旋回为参照面的高分辨层序地层学理论与研究方法,对松辽盆地南部海坨子—大布苏地区的泉四段—姚家组地层进行了详细的层序地层研究,共识别出5个长期基准面旋回（相当于三级层序）,9个中期基准面旋回（相当于四级层序）,建立了研究区的层序划分方案,在连井剖面的层序地层对比基础上,建立了该区的地层格架,并对层序构成特征进行了分析,研究了储集层在层序格架内的分布规律,揭示出浊积砂体和三角洲前缘相的分流河道形成于基准面上升期,三角洲前缘相的河口坝、远砂坝和席状砂沉积形成于基准面下降期,指出浊积砂体和三角洲前缘相的远砂坝、席状砂沉积是研究区形成岩性油气藏的有利储集体。     

三峡库区生基包滑坡监测及成果分析

生基包滑坡监测属于三峡库区奉节县三期地质灾害监测预警项目之一,该滑坡位于长江左岸,临近人口稠密的安坪乡集镇,地理位置重要。三峡水库175 m蓄水后,其变形破坏特征有何表现？对航道安全运营有无潜在威胁？是否会对滑坡体上的重要建筑及村民生产生活构成危害？针对这些问题,首先分析了滑坡的工程地质特征及主要的影响因素;其次,确立以4种监测手段为主、人工巡查为辅的监测方案;通过对大地变形GPS、深部位移、滑坡推力等几种监测方法的运用及对其成果进行分析研究,以实例说明其在滑坡监测中的应用;再次,结合宏观人工巡查进行对照分析,以充分说明大地变形、深部位移和滑坡推力监测在实际运用中的可行性;最后,根据监测结论提出对生基包滑坡防治的建议。     

广州地区深基坑支护形式研究

介绍了广州地区基坑支护近年来的主要类型及其适用范围,并在分析选型各影响因素的基础上,总结出设计选型的要点。     

绿片岩-低角闪岩相变质条件下磁铁铁矿与黄铁矿间的Fe同位素分馏

对辽宁省鞍山一本溪地区经历了绿片岩一低角闪岩相变质的新太古代条带状铁建造中磁铁矿和黄铁矿矿物对的Fe同位素分析结果显示:相对于标准IRMM-014,所有样品的磁铁矿和黄铁矿均显示Fe的重同位素富集;且黄铁矿的Fe同位素比值均大于磁铁矿的Fe同位素比值(ε57Fe黄铁矿ε57Fe磁铁矿),两种矿物的Fe同位素比值之差为△57Fe黄铁矿-磁铁矿=2.23～5.13.黄铁矿富集铁的重同位素表明矿物的Fe同位素组成并不代表其原始沉积的特征,而是在区域变质作用过程中Fe同位素发生了交换的结果.由同位素平衡判别图解可知,在绿片岩一低角闪岩相变质作用中,磁铁矿-黄铁矿间的Fe同位素基本达到了平衡,且在平衡条件下黄铁矿比磁铁矿更富集Fe的重同位素,二者之间的Fe同位素平衡分馏系数α黄铁矿-磁铁矿≈1.000 4‰±0.06‰(2σ).这一研究成果是对变质作用过程中Fe同位素的地球化学行为认识的重要进展.     

河南桐柏老湾花岗岩体锆石SHRIMP U-Pb年龄及其地质意义

通过对河南桐柏老湾花岗岩体开展锆石SHRIMP U-Pb测年,获得了一个高精度的U-Pb年龄(132.5±2.4)Ma,比较可靠地限定了老湾花岗岩体的形成时代属于燕山中期,而不是前人所认为的燕山晚期.结合区域构造-岩浆活动时间,认为在燕山中期,桐柏及其邻区存在次比较重要的构造-岩浆事件,老湾花岗岩体是这次构造-岩浆活动事件的产物.     

新疆叶尔羌河流域地下水同位素特征及其补给来源分析

笔者以新疆叶尔羌河流域为例,在研究区水文地质调查的基础上,根据不同区域、不同深度D、~(18)O和T值的变化分析地下水补给来源.解决了传统研究方法很难解决的问题.为干旱地区地下水起源及空间分布规律研究提供了新思路。研究结果表明:(1)研究区地下水不是来自大气降水的直接入渗,而是地表水渗漏补给。(2)流域分为两个独立的地下水循环系统,分别接受叶尔羌河与提孜那甫河河水补给。(3)潜水和承压水的起源相同,属统一的地下水系统。(4)地下水径流表现为倾斜平原区径流强烈,地下水以水平运动为主;细土平原区地下水径流迟缓,地下水以垂直蒸发运动为主.径流方向与地表水流向密切相关。     

青藏高原北缘阿尔金走滑边界的侧向扩展——甘肃北山晚新生代走滑构造与地壳稳定性分析

对北山地区遥感影像和野外地质特征的分析表明,自阿尔金断裂带向NW方向依次出露三危山-双塔断裂、大泉断裂和红柳河断裂。这些断裂近于平行,且同为左行走滑断裂,具有相似的展布特征,空间走向均为NE40-50°,断裂系末端均发育“树枝状”分支断层．在断层夹块之间形成“多米诺”构造,构成了北山地区主要的构造样式。断层谷地沉积物分析和断层泥ESR年代学测试结果表明,三危山-双塔断裂形成于上新世（N2k）,大泉断裂形成于早更新世（1．2-1．5Ma）．而北山地区分支断层和次级断层的活动在400ka之后。对北山地区断裂构造几何学和年代学的研究表明．阿尔金断裂系晚新生代以来向NW方向的侧向扩展．是阿尔金走滑边界重要的生长方式。北山地区特殊的走滑构造组合样式．使该地区的构造变形难于在某条断层上聚集能量,而分散在若干条次级断层上的位移量又微乎其微,该地区成为“最稳定的活动区”。