The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
The Upper Jurassic Tordillo Formation is exposed along the western edge of the Neuquén Basin (west central Argentina) and consists of fluvial strata deposited under arid/semiarid conditions. The pebble composition of conglomerates, mineralogical composition of sandstones and pelitic rocks, and major- and trace-element geochemistry of sandstones, mudstones, and primary pyroclastic deposits are evaluated to determine the provenance and tectonic setting of the sedimentary basin. Conglomerates and sandstones derived almost exclusively from volcanic sources. The stratigraphic sections to the south show a clast population of conglomerates dominated by silicic volcanic fragments and a predominance of feldspathic litharenites. This framework composition records erosion of Triassic–Jurassic synrift volcaniclastic rocks and basement rocks from the Huincul arch, which was exhumed as a result of Late Jurassic inversion. In the northwestern part of the study area, conglomerates show a large proportion of mafic and acidic volcanic rock fragments, and sandstones are characterised by a high content of mafic volcanic rock fragments and plagioclase. These data suggest that the source of the sandstones and conglomerates was primarily the Andean magmatic arc, located west of the Neuquén Basin. The clay mineral assemblage is interpreted as the result of a complex set of factors, including source rock, climate, transport, and diagenesis. Postdepositional processes produced significant variations in the original compositions, especially the fine-grained deposits. The Tordillo sediments are characterised by moderate SiO2 contents, variable abundances of K2O and Na2O, and a relatively high proportion of ferromagnesian elements. The degree of chemical weathering in the source area, expressed as the chemical index of alteration, is low to moderate. The major element geochemistry and Th/Sc, K/Rb, Co/Th, La/Sc, and Cr/Th values point to a significant input of detrital volcanic material of calcalkaline felsic and intermediate composition. However, major element geochemistry is not useful for interpreting the tectonic setting. Discrimination plots based on immobile trace elements, such as Ti, Zr, La, Sc, and Th, show that most data lie in the active continental margin field. Geochemical information is not sufficiently sensitive to differentiate the two different source areas recognized by petrographic and modal analyses of conglomerates and sandstones. 相似文献
A high-resolution ion-microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb zircon age from a tuff layer intercalated in the ammonoid bearing sedimentary succession of the Neuquén Basin in Argentina provides a robust geochronologic date to add to the absolute ages and to improve the relative chronology of the Early Cretaceous Hauterivian stage. The tuff layer appears interbedded between shales of the upper member (Agua de la Mula) of the Agrio Formation within the Spitidiscus riccardii ammonoid zone (base of the Late Hauterivian) yielding a date of 132.5 ± 1.3 Ma. This date confirms and supports an accurate correlation between the ammonoid biostratigraphy of the Neuquén Basin with the Western Mediterranean Province of the Tethys during the Early Cretaceous and matches with the most recently published time scale. It also casts doubts on the validity of K–Ar ages on glauconite-grains recently reported from the Lower Cretaceous of the Vocontian Basin of France. 相似文献