基于自适应时序剖分与KNN的短时交通流量预测

在智能交通系统中,准确和高效的短时交通流量预测是交通诱导、管理和控制的前提。由于交通流量动态变化中表现出的时变性和非平稳性特征,其预测难度较大,是交通领域中亟待解决的难题。为提高短时交通流量的预测精度,本文设计与实现了基于自适应时序剖分与KNN（A-TS-KNN）的短时交通流量预测算法。① 基于动态时间规整（Dynamic Time Warping,DTW）动态剖分单日时序为不同的交通模式;② 在不同交通模式,采用互信息法求解每个预测时刻时间延迟的最大阈值,构造不同时间延迟的状态向量,生成交通流量历史数据库;③ 采用十次十折交叉验证的方法求解每个时刻不同时间延迟与不同K值的正交误差结果分布,提取误差最小的正交结果,得到自适应时间延迟与K值的参数组合;④ 采用K个最相似的近邻的距离倒数加权值作为预测结果。对比K近邻（K-nearest neighbors, KNN）、支持向量回归（Support vector regression,SVR）、长短期记忆神经网络（Long-short term memory neural network,LSTM）以及门控递归单元神经网络（Gate recurrent unit neural network,GRU）共4种主流预测模型,A-TS-KNN算法预测精度显著提升;将A-TS-KNN算法用于福州市城市路网中其他交叉路口的短时交通流量预测,结果表现出良好的泛化能力。     

撞击事件诱发核反应热力学过程及其在事件地质学研究中的意义

摘要：从大规模撞击事件的基本动力学和热力学公式推导出发,讨论了白垩纪－第三纪界线（Ｋ／Ｔ界线）事件能量随时间的释放过程,并对发生热核聚变反应的条件进行了分析。最后,还对其可能的事件地质学意义进行了讨论．     

Magnitude of lateral displacement on the Crevillente Fault Zone (Betic Cordillera,SE Spain): stratigraphical and sedimentological considerations

The Crevillente Fault Zone (CFZ) comprises a system of northeast to southwest oriented dextral faults that extend for some 600 km in the External Zones of the Betic Cordillera (SE Spain). The magnitude of lateral displacement related to this fault zone is not well constrained, and it is considered to be between 20 and 400 km. The stratigraphical and sedimentological criteria used in this work have proven effective in quantifying the magnitude of the displacement along this structure. We have analysed an oolitic turbidite facies in the Middle Jurassic of the Sierra de Ricote (Median Subbetic of Murcia Province). A detailed revision of ooidal limestone outcrops has revealed that the source area of these deposits was to the Internal Subbetic zone, north of Vélez Rubio (Almería Province). These two tectonic units, the Median and Internal Subbetic, are currently 75 km from each other and separated by the CFZ. The conclusions arising from our stratigraphical, petrological and sedimentological studies favour interpretation of a 75–100 km lateral displacement. After restoring the Late Jurassic–Cretaceous anticlockwise rotation of Iberia, the CFZ appears to belong to the E–W palaeofault system that is related to the extension of the South Iberian Continental Margin (SICM). Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pendleian (early Serpukhovian) marine carbonates from SW Spain: sedimentology,biostratigraphy and depositional model

The San Antonio–La Juliana tectono‐sedimentary unit contains the only Namurian marine carbonates in the southwestern part of the Iberian Peninsula. The analysis of this unit is fundamental in understanding the sedimentary evolution and tectonic movements which operated during the Namurian in this area. Using foraminifera the succession has been assigned to two biozones (Zones 17 and 18), both occurring in the Pendleian (early Namurian). Seven stratigraphic sections have been analysed: San Antonio, Burjadillo, Lavadero de la Mina, Cornuda, Lozana, Caridad and Via Crucis. The stratigraphic succession of the San Antonio–La Juliana Unit consists of olistolites in the basal part, with common debris‐flow deposits (mainly of carbonates, with minor siliciclastic rocks), and turbidites, all of them embedded in shales. These rocks, interpeted as slope deposits, pass up into shallow‐water platform facies, with sediments characteristic of the inner platform and tidal flats. Above these rocks, terrigenous deltaic deposits occur. Thus, the stratigraphic sections show an overall shallowing‐upward trend. The isolation of some outcrops, and the duplication and absence of some parts of the stratigraphic succession are explained by tectonic movements. Overall, tectonic factors seem to be the main control rather than glacio‐eustatic or autocyclic processes, and sedimentation took place in a strike‐slip regime. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

珠江口表层水中主要常量离子的研究

９９４年９月采集了珠江口表层海水水样,并对其溶解态的Ｋ＋、Ｎａ＋、Ｃａ２＋、Ｍｇ２＋、ＳＯ２－４、Ｃｌ等化学要素进行了测定。结果表明,珠江口调查海域表层水中溶解态的Ｋ＋、Ｎａ＋、Ｃａ２＋、Ｍｇ２＋、ＳＯ２－４主要受陆源淡水与外海水物理混合稀释的影响,与Ｃｌ具有良好的直线正相关;Ｃａ２＋／Ｃｌ、ＳＯ２－４／Ｃｌ明显高于大洋水相应比值,Ｎａ＋／Ｃｌ、Ｍｇ２＋／Ｃｌ略高,而Ｋ＋／Ｃｌ比大洋比值低;在与中国其它各主要河口表层水对应Ｃｌ比较中,珠江口的ＳＯ２－４／Ｃｌ较高,而Ｃａ２＋／Ｃｌ,Ｍｇ２＋／Ｃｌ比值居低;上述各主要常量离子和Ｃｌ的等值线均沿自北向南走向递增。     

Chemical alternation of waters in the Kuroshio/Oyashio Interfrontal Zone

An intensive survey has been conducted of the distributions of some chemical properties (dissolved oxygen, nutrients and carbonate properties) in the Kuroshio/Oyashio Interfrontal Zone. Many low-salinity water patches were found down to depths of 640 m. Each chemical property also showed anomalies in these patches, but the degree of variation showed a low correlation with salinity. This may be due to the high variability of biological processes in the surface waters where these patches are formed. Vertical profiles of the chemical properties were also observed along the Kuroshio extension axis from 140.50°E to 146.75°E. The concentrations of nutrients and total carbonate (TC) in the water having densities greater than σ_θ=26.60 can be regarded as being formed by the isopycnal mixing of the Kuroshio component water and Oyashio component water and biological degradation within the density surfaces. This implies that the transport of chemical properties by the diapycnal mixing is negligible in these density layers in the K/O zone.     

Time‐series photometric spot modelling – VI. A new computer code and its application to 23 years of photometry of the active giant IM Pegasi

We present and apply a new computer program named SpotModeL to analyze single and multiple bandpass photometric data of spotted stars. It is based on the standard analytical formulae from Budding and Dorren. The program determines the position, size, and temperature of up to three spots by minimizing the fit residuals with the help of the Marquardt‐Levenberg non‐linear least‐squares algorithm. We also expand this procedure to full time‐series analysis of differential data, just as real observations would deliver. If multi‐bandpass data are available, all bandpasses can be treated simultaneously and thus the spot temperature is solved for implicitly. The program may be downloaded and used by anyone. In this paper, we apply our code to an ≈23 year long photometric dataset of the spotted RS CVn giant IM Peg. We extracted and modelled 33 individual light curves, additionally, we fitted the entire V dataset in one run. The resulting spot parameters reflect the long term light variability and reveal two active longitudes on the substellar point and on the antipode. The radius and longitude of the dominant spot show variations with 29.8 and 10.4 years period, respectively. Our multicolour data suggests that the spot temperature is increasing with the brightening of the star. The average spot temperature from V, I_C is 3550 ± 150 K or approximately 900 K below the effective temperature of the star.