Modelling the internal stress field in argillaceous rocks under humidification/desiccation

This paper deals with analytical and numerical modelling of the internal stress generated in argillaceous rocks during humidification/desiccation processes, which is an essential issue for damage study. This local stress field arises from two mechanisms: (i) complex interactions between free swelling/shrinking clay matrix and non‐strained inclusions of carbonate and quartz and (ii) a self‐restraint effect induced by the moisture gradient during the transient moisture exchange process. The inclusion–matrix interaction is investigated in different cases. Firstly, the analytical solution of the stress around a cylindrical inclusion embedded in an infinite swelling matrix is derived: The inclusion would suffer tension (compression) under humidification (desiccation), and the resulting cracking patterns are discussed. Then, the problem of two inclusions with different distances in an infinite swelling matrix is considered, and it is shown that the local stress around an inclusion will be perturbed and amplified by neighbouring inclusions. Finally, an inclusion outcropping at the free surface of a swelling matrix is modelled as to investigate the effect of free surface: The inclusion–matrix interface undergoes shear stresses of which the maximum is found at the free surface. In addition to the inclusion–matrix interaction, the self‐restraint effect is investigated: The induced stress is maximal at the beginning of humidification/desiccation processes and vanishes gradually with time. The quantity of the self‐restraint stress is strongly controlled by the hydric loading rate. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study of the interaction between dry granular flows and rigid barriers with an SPH model

This study uses an incompressible smoothed‐particle hydrodynamics model to investigate the interaction between dry granular material flows and rigid barriers. The primary aim is to summarise some practical guidelines for the design of debris‐resisting barriers. The granular materials are modelled as a rigid‐perfectly plastic material where the plastic flow corresponds to the critical state. The coupled continuity equation and momentum equation are solved by a semi‐implicit algorithm. Compared with flows in controlled flume experiments, the model adequately reproduces both the kinetic of the flows and the impact force under various conditions. Then the numerical simulations are used to study the detailed interaction process. It is illustrated quantitatively that the interaction force consists of two parts, ie, the earth pressure force caused by the weight of the soil and a dynamic force caused by the internal deformation (flowing mass on top of a dead zone). For the estimation of impact load, this study suggests that an increased earth pressure coefficient depending on the Froude number should be incorporated into the hydrostatic model.     

The duration of near‐peak metamorphism from diffusion modelling of garnet zoning

Garnet in a staurolite–kyanite zone sample from central Vermont displays a bell‐shaped Mn growth zoning with diffusional modification over the outer 100 μm. The diffusion is driven by the prograde net transfer reaction garnet + chlorite = kyanite + biotite as is evidenced by a well‐defined resorption zone on the rim. Analysis of the reaction history and resorbed garnet composition suggests that the peak temperature attained was 620–660 °C. Diffusional modelling of the rim diffusion provides an estimate of the duration of the metamorphic episode over which significant garnet diffusion occurs. The duration is a function of the assumed peak temperature and garnet diffusivities and range from a few hundred thousand years to a few million years. Such short durations require rapid tectonic burial and exhumation of relatively thin tectonic slices.     

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.     

Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology

We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.     

Using chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and tritium (3H) to estimate groundwater age and flow velocity in Hohhot Basin,China

The concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC‐11, CFC‐12 and CFC‐113) and tritium (³H) content in groundwater were used to date groundwater age, delineate groundwater flow systems and estimate flow velocity in the Hohhot basin. The estimated young groundwater age is fallen in the bracket of 21 ~ 50 a and indicates the presence of two different age profiles and flow systems in the shallow groundwater system. Older age waters occur under the topographically low areas, where the aquifer is double‐layer aquifer system consisting of shallow unconfined‐semi‐confined aquifer and deep confined aquifer. This reflects long flow paths associated with regional flow. Groundwater (range from 21 to 34 years) in the north piedmont and east hilly areas, where the aquifer is a single‐layer aquifer consisting of alluvial fans, are typically younger than those in the low areas. The combination of CFCs dating with hydrogeological information indicates that both local and regional flow systems are present at the basin. The regional groundwater flow mainly flows from the north and east to the southwest, the local groundwater flow system occurs nearby the Hohhot city. The mean regional groundwater flow velocity of the shallow groundwater is estimated about 0.73 km/a. These findings can aid in refining hydrogeological conceptual model of the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional extreme‐dry‐spell frequency analysis using the L‐moments method in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin,China

In this research, the regional extreme‐dry‐spell frequency in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is studied by the L‐moments method. The research area has been divided into three subregions (regions 1, 2 and 3), which have been identified as homogenous regions. The results of a goodness‐of‐fit test indicate that a generalized normal distribution is the optimal regional model for regions 1 and 2 whereas a generalized Pareto distribution is the optimal regional model for region 3. The return period analysis figures out that the maximum length‐of‐dry‐spell (MxDS) values increase from south to north in the southern part and increase from northeast to southwest in the northern part of the middle reaches of the YRB under different return periods. The increments of quantiles of dry spell under different return levels indicate that drought risk in region 1 is higher than that in regions 2 and 3. The analysis of the occurrence day of MxDS shows that MxDS mostly occurred during winter of 1998 and spring of 1999 in most stations during the considered period. By comparing summer MxDS events, it can be found that mean MxDS values have slightly increased in regions 1 and 2 during the last five decades. The maximum mean MxDS values appeared in the 2000s for regions 1 and 2 and in the 1990s for region 3. The atmospheric circulation shows that the positive anomaly centre in the west of North China, negative anomaly centre in the east of North China and the strong western Pacific subtropical high led to the decrease of precipitation in North China during the summer of 1997. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi‐storage groundwater concept for the SWAT model to emphasize nonlinear groundwater dynamics in lowland catchments

Hydrological models are useful tools to analyze present and future conditions of water quantity and quality. The integrated modelling of water and nutrients needs an adequate representation of the different discharge components. In common with many lowlands, groundwater contribution to the discharge in the North German lowlands is a key factor for a reasonable representation of the water balance, especially in low flow periods. Several studies revealed that the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performs poorly for low flow periods. This paper deals with the extension of the groundwater module of the SWAT model to enhance low flow representation. The current two‐storage concept of SWAT was further developed to a three‐storage concept. This was realized due to modification of the groundwater module by splitting the active groundwater storage into a fast and a slow contributing aquifer. The results of this study show that the groundwater module with three storages leads to a good prediction of the overall discharge especially for the recession limbs and the low flow periods. The improved performance is reflected in the signature measures for the mid‐segment (percent bias ?2.4% vs ?15.9%) and the low segment (percent bias 14.8% vs 46.8%) of the flow duration curve. The three‐storage groundwater module is more process oriented than the original version due to the introduction of a fast and a slow groundwater flow component. The three‐storage version includes a modular approach, because groundwater storages can be activated or deactivated independently for subbasin and hydrological response unit level. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.