Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Hydrogen isotope of individual n-alkanes from modern sediments and their application to environments

Hydrogen isotopes are commonly fractionated to a much greater extent and as a result display larger variations in δ values, In terms of the hydrogen isotope ratios of individual n-alkanes of 16 samples of modern sediments selected from four different locations in the southern part of Gansu, China, the δD values for most of the n-alkanes varied from -150‰-300‰, Variations in δD also occurred between different ranges of n-alkanes, effects of environmental changes on the hydrogen isotopic compositions of individual n-alkanes have been detected. Besides the δD values of n-alkanes, the δD values of lipids including pristane （Pr）, phytane （Ph） were also examined, by the combination of D/H ratios with molecular fingerprinting, Our results further support the notion that hydrogen isotopes of n-alkanes from modern sediments can act as paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental proxies and provide invaluable new sources of information in the research of paleoenvironment reconstruction.     

On the Importance of Geolithological Features for the Estimate of the Site Response: The Case of Catania Metropolitan Area (Italy)

The evaluation of seismic site response in the urban area of Catania was tackled by selecting test areas having peculiar lithological and structural features, potentially favourable to large local amplifications of ground motion. The two selected areas are located in the historical downtown and in the northern part of Catania where the presence of a fault is evident. Site response was evaluated using spectral ratio technique taking the horizontal- to-vertical component ratio of ambient noise. Inferences from microtremor measurements are compared with results from synthetic accelerograms and response spectra computed at all drillings available for this area. Such method is particularly suitable in urban areas where the nature of the outcropping geological units is masked by city growth and anthropic intervention on the surface geology. The microtremor H/V spectral ratios evaluated at soft sites located within the downtown profile tend to be smaller than that usually reported in the literature for such soils. A tendency for amplifications to peaks near 2 Hz is observed only in some sites located on recent alluvial deposits. Evidences for amplifications of site effects (frequency range 4–8 Hz) were observed in the sampling sites located on the fault, with a rapid decrease of spectral amplitude just a few tenths of metres away from the discontinuity. Numerical simulations evidenced the importance of geolithological features at depth levels even greater than 20–30 m. Besides this, the results strongly confirm the importance of the subsurface geological conditions, in the estimate of seismic hazard at urban scale.     

Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis

Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) for assessing its frequencies of vibration and for checking whether these occur in the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case, damages may increase in case of an earthquake due to an increased structural response of the building. Analysis of the ratio between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building as well as the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference station placed in the basement of the cathedral indicated several modes of vibration. Facilitated by these results an assessment of the seismic vulnerability was attempted for a 2D ground motion scenario using the finite element method.     

Use of electrical resistivity methods for detecting subsurface fresh and saline water and delineating their interfacial configuration: a case study of the eastern Dead Sea coastal aquifers, Jordan

The alluvial aquifer is the primary source of groundwater along the eastern Dead Sea shoreline, Jordan. Over the last 20 years, salinity has risen in some existing wells and several new wells have encountered brackish water in areas thought to contain fresh water. A good linear correlation exists between the water resistivity and the chloride concentration of groundwater and shows that the salinity is the most important factor controlling resistivity. Two-dimensional electrical tomography (ET) integrated with geoelectrical soundings were employed to delineate different water-bearing formations and the configuration of the interface between them. The present hydrological system and the related brines and interfaces are controlled by the Dead Sea base level, presently at 410 m b.s.l. Resistivity measurements show a dominant trend of decreasing resistivity (thus increasing salinity) with depth and westward towards the Dead Sea. Accordingly, three zones with different resistivity values were detected, corresponding to three different water-bearing formations: (1) strata saturated with fresh to slightly brackish groundwater; (2) a transition zone of brine mixed with fresh to brackish groundwater; (3) a water-bearing formation containing Dead Sea brine. In addition, a low resistivity unit containing brine was detected above the 1955 Dead Sea base level, which was interpreted as having remained unflushed by infiltrating rain.     

New data on Sr-and C-isotopic chemostratigraphy of the Upper Riphean type section (Southern Urals)

New data on Sr-and C-isotopic systematics of carbonate rocks from the Upper Riphean stratotype (Karatau Group of the southern Urals) are obtained for several southwestern sections of the Bashkirian meganticlinorium, which have not been studied before. The results obtained supplement the Sr-and C-isotopic information for the group upper horizons thus detailing chemostratigraphic characterization of the entire succession. Limestone and dolostone samples used to analyze the Sr isotope composition satisfy strict geochemical criteria of the isotopic system retentivity and have been subjected to preliminary treatment in ammonium acetate to remove secondary carbonate phases. Data on 255 samples of carbonate rocks (171 studied for the first time) show that δ¹³C value varies in the Karatau Group succession from ?2.8 to +5.9 ‰ V-PDB with several in-phase excursions from the general trend in all the sections studied in the area 90 × 130 km. The δ¹³C variation trend demarcates several levels in the carbonate succession of the Karatau Group suitable for objectives of regional stratigraphy and for C-isotope chemostratigraphic subdivision of the Upper Riphean. The results of Sr isotopic analysis of 121 samples (51 unstudied before) from the Karatau Group imply that rocks in its lower part (the Katav Formation and basal horizon of the Inzer Formation) experienced considerable secondary alterations, while limestones and dolostones of the overlying interval of the group are frequently unaltered. In the “best” samples satisfying geochemical criteria of the isotopic system retentivity, the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr initial ratio increases from 0.70521–0.70532 in the lower Inzer deposits to 0.70611 in the upper Min’yar carbonates, decreasing to <0.70600 near the top of the latter. Above the regional hiatus separating the Min’yar and Uk formation, this ratio grows from 0.70533 to 0.70605–0.70609 in the limestone succession of the last formation.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Relations between climatic variability and hydrologic time series from four alluvial basins across the southwestern United States

Hydrologic time series of groundwater levels, streamflow, precipitation, and tree-ring indices from four alluvial basins in the southwestern United States were spectrally analyzed, and then frequency components were reconstructed to isolate variability due to climatic variations on four time scales. Reconstructed components (RCs), from each time series, were compared to climatic indices like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North American Monsoon (NAM), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to reveal that as much as 80% of RC variation can be correlated with climate variations on corresponding time scales. In most cases, the hydrologic RCs lag behind the climate indices by 1–36 months. In all four basins, PDO-like components were the largest contributors to cyclic hydrologic variability. Generally, California time series have more variation associated with PDO and ENSO than the Arizona series, and Arizona basins have more variation associated with NAM. ENSO cycles were present in all four basins but were the largest relative contributors in southeastern Arizona. Groundwater levels show a wide range of climate responses that can be correlated from well to well in the various basins, with climate responses found in unconfined and confined aquifers from pumping centers to mountain fronts.     

A new approach for the development and management of brackish karst springs

A new approach to the method of artificial upraising of the water outlet point, for management and development of brackish karst springs, uses the MODKARST model. Brackish karst springs simulation can be used to estimate the necessary upraising of the spring elevation, so that sea-water intrusion is blocked. The consequent freshwater loss to the sea, due to this upraising, can also be estimated. The method has been applied to the periodically brackish karst Almiros spring at Heraklion of Crete, Greece. The spring simulation showed that the sea-water intrusion could be prevented through an artificial upraising of the water-outlet point, realized by the construction of a dam. The exact upraising has been estimated. Freshwater loss to the sea because of this upraising has also been estimated. The model could also be used as a tool for the management of the spring. For example, it was used to assess management options for the spring during the depletion period of the year 1994. The best scenario for the development of the spring during this period has been estimated.