Fatigue analysis of offshore well conductors: Part II – Development of new approaches for conductor fatigue analysis in clays and sands

This paper, Part II, presents two soil modelling approaches developed specifically for fatigue analysis of well conductors. The first approach uses Winkler springs and can account for soil damping. The second approach is based on continuum soil mechanics and uses the kinematic hardening principles. They focus on cyclic soil behaviour at the steady-state condition. The paper demonstrates appropriateness of the approaches in predicting fatigue damage through comparisons with the centrifuge fatigue lives measured from the Series 1 tests in NC to lightly OC kaolin clay. It also presents and discusses the analyzed data and the fatigue lives measured from the Series 2 (medium-dense sand), Series 3 (NC to lightly OC GoM clay), and Series 4 (OC natural clay) tests. Finally, soil models (based on the first approach) are presented for fatigue analysis of well conductors installed in NC to lightly OC clays, over-consolidated (OC) clays and medium-dense sands, and their ability to predict conductor fatigue damage under wide range of loading conditions is demonstrated. Overall, the accuracy of fatigue life predictions using these novel soil models is very high – generally within about a few percentages of the measured values.     

Fatigue analysis of offshore well conductors: Part I – Study overview and evaluation of Series 1 centrifuge tests in normally consolidated to lightly over-consolidated kaolin clay

An important aspect of deepwater well integrity assurance is conductor fatigue analysis under environmental loads acting on the riser system during drilling operation. Fatigue damage arises from stress changes in a structure due to cyclic loading. In practice, the lateral cyclic soil response is typically modelled using Winkler p–y springs. An appropriate soil model for conductor–soil interaction analysis is the one based on which the absolute magnitudes of stresses and their changes can accurately be predicted for well integrity evaluation. The API recommendations for p–y curves, which are often used for conductor–soil interaction analysis, have originally been developed for piled foundation and are inappropriate for well fatigue analysis. To that end, an extensive study involving four series of centrifuge model tests and FE numerical analyses was conducted to fundamentally study conductor–soil interaction under a wide spectrum of loading conditions. The tests simulated conductor installations in normally to over consolidated clays, and medium-dense clean sands. Soil models were developed specifically for conductor fatigue analysis for each of the soil types. The test results and soil models are presented in two papers. The first paper, Part I, presents an overview of the study and first series tests in normally to lightly over-consolidated kaolin clay and discusses the observations made with regards to monotonic and cyclic soil resistances and their relationship to conductor fatigue modelling. The second paper, Part II, presents centrifuge test results in normally to lightly over-consolidated Golf of Mexico (GoM) clay, over-consolidated natural clay and medium-dense clean sands along with the respective soil models developed for conductor fatigue damage prediction. Overall, the accuracy of fatigue life predictions using these novel soil models is very high – generally within about a few percentage of the measured values.     

The emplacement of in situ greenstones in the northern Hidaka belt: The tectonic relationship between subduction of the Izanagi–Pacific ridge and Hidaka magmatic activity

Greenstone bodies emplaced upon or into clastic sediments crop out ubiquitously in the Hidaka belt (early Paleogene accretionary and collisional complexes exposed in the central part of northern Hokkaido, NE Japan), but the timing and setting of their emplacement has remained poorly constrained. Here, we report new zircon U–Pb ages for the sedimentary complexes surrounding these greenstones. The Hidaka Supergroup in the northern Hidaka belt is divided into four zones from west to east: zones S, U, and R, which contain in situ greenstones; and zone Y, which does not. Detrital zircons in zones S, U, and R have early Eocene U–Pb ages (55–47 Ma) and these strata are intruded by early Eocene granites (46–45 Ma), indicating that they were deposited between 55 and 46 Ma. Therefore, in situ greenstones in the northern Hidaka belt can only be explained by the subduction of the Izanagi–Pacific Ridge during 55–47 Ma. In contrast, the deposition of zone Y (the Yubetsu Group, younging to the west) began by 73–71 Ma, indicating that the accretionary prism in front of the paleo-Kuril arc formed at the same time as that in the Idonnappu zone and grew continuously until 48 Ma. The plutonic rocks that intruded the Hidaka belt are roughly divided into three stages: (1) early Eocene granites intruded the northern Hidaka belt at 46–45 Ma, during subduction of the Izanagi–Pacific Ridge; (2) the upper sequence of the Hidaka metamorphic zone was metamorphosed by magmatism at 40–37 Ma associated with the collision of the paleo-Kuril arc and NE Asia; and (3) younger granites intruded the entire Hidaka belt at 20–17 Ma in association with asthenospheric upwelling caused by back-arc expansion.     

Effect of earth–air breathing on evaporation of deeply buried phreatic water in extremely arid regions

In extremely arid regions, deeply buried phreatic water evaporates during the daytime from March to November in the northern hemisphere. It has been found that the earth–air undergoes ‘autonomous breathing’ and ‘passive breathing’, respectively caused by the changes of temperature and atmospheric pressure. In this paper, the effects of these breathing modes on phreatic evaporation (PhE) were investigated as well as the responsible mechanisms. Quantitative estimates suggest that the direct contribution from autonomous breathing is only 0.55 g·m⁻²·yr⁻¹. Passive breathing pumps water vapour upwards from the deeply buried phreatic water table. Film water on the soil continuously migrates in pulsation from deep layers to the upper layer. Na₂SO₄ in the shallow soil absorbs moisture from the earth–air at night and decomposes during the day, forming water vapour, which is critical to the occurrence of PhE. The diurnal PhE process can be elucidated in detail by the bimodal variation in the atmospheric pressure. PhE occurs mainly from 10:00 to 17:00 during daytime from March to November, which correlates with passive breathing of the earth–air. The amplitude of atmospheric fluctuation determines the amount of earth–air that outflows, while temperature determines the water vapour concentration. In calculation, PhE is equal to the net absolute humidity (AH) times the amount of earth–air. There is 1.55 mm·year⁻¹ of PhE caused by daily peak→valley differences, and about 2.97 mm·year⁻¹ in estimation caused by numerous atmospheric fluctuations smaller than 2.84 hPa. The results coincide with the actual amount of PhE monitored of 4.52 mm·year⁻¹. Therefore, the amount of PhE is proportional to the range and frequency of fluctuation in external atmospheric pressure, and is also positively related to soil temperature, salt content, water content, porosity, and vadose zone thickness.     

Larger floods of Himalayan foothill rivers sustained flows in the Ghaggar–Hakra channel during Harappan age

The human–landform interaction in the region of the Ghaggar–Hakra palaeochannel in the northwest Indo-Gangetic plains during the Bronze Age Indus/Harappan civilisation (~4.6–3.9 thousand years before the present, ka bp ) remains an enigmatic case due to a paucity of evidence regarding the hydrology of the then existing river. Here, we estimated the palaeohydrology of the foothill Markanda River in the sub-Himalayan catchment of the Ghaggar–Hakra (G–H) palaeochannel. Our morphology and chronology results show aggradation of a fan (57.7 ka) during the Late Pleistocene and T–1 to T–5 fluvial terraces (13.1 to 6.0 ka) during the terminal Pleistocene to Holocene, and deposition of palaeoflood sediments (3.9–3.8 ka) over the T–3 terraces during the Late Holocene. Considering the known uplift rates along the Himalayan frontal thrust, and our estimated aggradation rates, we derived channel palaeogeometry and calculated peak discharge at the site of palaeoflood deposits. We conclude that the Markanda River's peak discharge was several orders of magnitude higher during the Late Holocene than the modern-day peak discharge of 100-year return period. The palaeoflood deposits represent larger flooding of the foothill rivers that sustained flows in the downstream reaches of the Ghaggar–Hakra palaeochannel during the Late Harappan civilisation.     

Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil

Peak Oil, which refers to the maximum possible global oil production rate, is increasingly gaining attention in both science and policy discourses. However, little is known about how this phenomenon will impact economies, despite its apparent imminence and potential dangers. In this paper, we construct a vulnerability map of the U.S. economy, combining two approaches for analyzing economic systems, i.e. input–output analysis and social network analysis (applied to economic data). Our approach reveals the relative importance of individual economic sectors, and how vulnerable they are to oil price shocks. As such, our dual-analysis helps identify which sectors, due to their strategic position, could put the entire U.S. economy at risk from Peak Oil. For the U.S., such sectors would include Iron Mills, Fertilizer Production and Transport by Air. Our findings thus provide early warnings to downstream companies about potential ‘trouble’ in their supply chain, and inform policy action for Peak Oil. Although our analysis is embedded in a Peak Oil narrative, it is just as valid and useful in the context of developing a climate roadmap toward a low carbon economy.     

Stratigraphy and correlation of Carboniferous ignimbrites,Rocky Creek region,Tamworth Belt,Southern New England Orogen,New South Wales

Carboniferous (Visean to Westphalian) pyroclastics and lava flows in the Rocky Creek region, used to redefine the base of the Kiaman reversal, are formally defined or redefined and the status of the main formations clarified. These units include the Caroda Formation, containing the Kooringal Dacite, Boomi Rhyolite and Barney Springs Andesite Members; the Clifden Formation with the Wanganui Andesite, Glen Idle Rhyolite, Appleogue Dacite, Bexley Rhyolite, Pine Cliffs Rhyolite and Downs Rhyodacite Members; Rocky Creek Conglomerate with the Hazelvale Rhyodacite, Mt Hook Rhyolite, Darthula Rhyodacite and Pound Rock Rhyodacite Members; and Lark Hill Formation with the Eulowrie Pyroclastic, Tycannah Rhyodacite and The Tops Rhyolite Members; a number of informal units are also described. The restriction of most volcanic units to one of the three thrust blocks (Boomi, Kathrose and Darthula blocks) of the Rocky Creek region, suggests their current relationships reflect either shortening due to overthrusting or an original distribution affected by depositional or erosional processes. A westerly increase in the proportion of ignimbrites indicates nearness to sources in that direction. Intermediate volcanism, largely confined to southern and central parts of the Boomi block in the east, began in the Visean and ended in the early Namurian. Acid volcanism also began in the Visean in the northern Boomi block but, with the exception of the Peri Rhyolite Member of the Clifden Formation, did not become widespread until later in the Namurian and Westphalian. In contrast, only acid volcanism took place during the early Namurian to Westphalian in the Kathrose and Darthula blocks. Correlations based on AS3 and SL13 SHRIMP dates illustrate a discordance of about 3% when compared with the most likely location for the base of the Kiaman reversal. The bases of both the Rocky Creek Conglomerate and Lark Hill Formation appear to be slightly diachronous.     

EU corporate action as a driver for global emissions abatement: A structural analysis of EU international supply chain carbon dioxide emissions

Global greenhouse gas emissions driven by European consumption increasingly occur outside European borders. These non-European sources of emissions remain linked to Europe via the international supply chains of European companies. Leading companies are now measuring their supply chain emissions and taking tentative steps to reduce them. If such activities were to become widespread, then an opportunity may exist for European industry to drive significant emissions abatement beyond European borders. This paper provides the first analysis into the maximum potential influence European industry has over its non-European supply chain emissions. The analysis is performed at the level of aggregate industry sectors using a global Multi-Regional Input–Output model. The Total Consumption Attribution method is used to estimate the potential influence of different European industries with detailed decompositions carried out using Structural Path Analysis techniques. The potential influence of European industry over non-European supply chain emissions is found to be greater than one gigatonne of carbon dioxide. The European manufacturing sector is found to have the greatest potential influence over non-European emissions via relatively short supply chains that entail few international border crossings. The results presented in this paper provide initial evidence in support of the development of European climate policies aimed at stimulating supply chain emissions reductions activities within European companies     

The social–ecological system framework as a knowledge classificatory system for benthic small-scale fisheries

Ostrom proposed the underpinnings of a framework for the systematic study of the governance of complex social–ecological systems. Here we hypothesize that Ostrom's social–ecological system framework can be useful to build a classification system for small-scale benthic fisheries, regarding their governance processes and outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to knowledge accumulation of benthic fisheries. To tailor the framework, we relied on discussions among experts and a systematic literature review of benthic fisheries from 1980 to 2010. This literature review helped us refine variable definitions and provide readers with illustrative reference papers. We then illustrate the approach and its potential contributions through two studies of the emergence of self-organization in Mexico and Chile. We highlight synthetic lessons from the cases and the overall approach as well as reflect on remaining challenges to the development of a social–ecological system framework as a diagnostic tool for knowledge accumulation and synthesis.     

A Modified Neural Network for Improving River Flow Prediction/Un Réseau de Neurones Modifié pour Améliorer la Prévision de L'Écoulement Fluvial

Abstract

Artificial neural network (ANN) models provide huge potential for simulating nonlinear behaviour of hydrological systems. However, the potential of ANN is yet to be fully exploited due to the problems associated with improving the model generalization performance. Generalization refers to the ability of a neural network to correctly process input data that have not been used for calibrating the neural network model. In the hydrological context, better generalization performance implies higher precision of forecasting. The primary objectives of this study are to explore new measures for improving the generalization performance of an ANN-based rainfall–runoff model, and to evaluate the applicability of the new measures. A modified neural network model (entitled goal programming (GP) neural network) for modelling the rainfall–runoff process has been developed, in which three enhancements are made as compared to the widely-used backpropagation (BP) network. The three enhancements are (a) explicit integration of hydrological prior knowledge into the neural network learning; (b) incorporation of a modified training objective function; and (c) reduction of network sensitivity to input errors. Seven watersheds across a range of climatic conditions and watershed areas in China were selected for examining the alternative networks. The results demonstrate that the GP consistently outperformed the BP both in the calibration and verification periods and three proposed measures yielded improvement of performance.