地球化学景观吸引子的发现及其意义

勘查地球化学对异常评价的最大不确定性源于对地球化学景观特性的认识不够。我们应用构造相空间的方法分析了浙江儒岙幅（1:5万）水系沉积物测量的Ag含量数据，揭示了地球化学景观是具有低维吸引子（DZ≈2．9）的混饨系统。这一发现将对勘查地球化学中采样密度的选择、地球化学场模拟、异常评价等根本性问题产生重大影响。     

氢化物发生-原子荧光光谱法直接测定地球化学样品中痕量碲

采用硝酸-氢氟酸-高氯酸溶解样品,以Fe3+作减缓剂,不需分离富集,用氢化物发生-原子荧光光谱法直接测定地球化学样品中痕量碲。对测定介质、KBH4浓度、铁盐的作用等条件进行试验。方法检出限为0.0031μg/g,精密度(RSD,n=11)<6.10%。方法用于国家一级地球化学标准物质中痕量碲的测定,结果与标准值一致。     

The double solid reactant method: II. An application to the shallow groundwaters of the Porto Plain,Vulcano Island (Italy)

This paper presents an example of application of the double solid reactant method (DSRM) of Accornero and Marini (Environmental Geology, 2007a), an effective way for modeling the fate of several dissolved trace elements during water–rock interaction. The EQ3/6 software package was used for simulating the irreversible water–rock mass transfer accompanying the generation of the groundwaters of the Porto Plain shallow aquifer, starting from a degassed diluted crateric steam condensate. Reaction path modeling was performed in reaction progress mode and under closed-system conditions. The simulations assumed: (1) bulk dissolution (i.e., without any constraint on the kinetics of dissolution/precipitation reactions) of a single solid phase, a leucite-latitic glass, and (2) precipitation of amorphous silica, barite, alunite, jarosite, anhydrite, kaolinite, a solid mixture of smectites, fluorite, a solid mixture of hydroxides, illite-K, a solid mixture of saponites, a solid mixture of trigonal carbonates and a solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates. Analytical concentrations of major chemical elements and several trace elements (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Sr and Ba) in groundwaters were satisfactorily reproduced. In addition to these simulations, similar runs for a rhyolite, a latite and a trachyte permitted to calculate major oxide contents for the authigenic paragenesis which are comparable, to a first approximation, with the corresponding data measured for local altered rocks belonging to the silicic, advanced argillic and intermediate argillic alteration facies. The important role played by both the solid mixture of trigonal carbonates as sequestrator of Mn, Zn, Cu and Ni and the solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates as scavenger of Sr and Ba is emphasized.

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Assessing soil erosion in Mediterranean karst landscapes of Lebanon using remote sensing and GIS

Maps showing the potential for soil erosion at 1:100,000 scale are produced in a study area within Lebanon that can be used for evaluating erosion of Mediterranean karstic terrain with two different sets of impact factors built into an erosion model. The first set of factors is: soil erodibility, morphology, land cover/use and rainfall erosivity. The second is obtained by the first adding a fifth factor, rock infiltration. High infiltration can reflect high recharge, therefore decreasing the potential of surface runoff and hence the quantity of transported materials. Infiltration is derived as a function of lithology, lineament density, karstification and drainage density, all of which can be easily extracted from satellite imagery. The influence of these factors is assessed by a weight/rate approach sharing similarities between quantitative and qualitative methods and depending on pair-wise comparison matrix.The main outcome was the production of factorial maps and erosion susceptibility maps (scale 1:100,000). Spatial and attribute comparison of erosion maps indicates that the model that includes a measure of rock infiltration better represents erosion potential. Field investigation of rills and gullies shows 87.5% precision of the model with rock infiltration. This is 17.5% greater than the precision of the model without rock infiltration. These results indicate the necessity and importance of integrating information on infiltration of rock outcrops to assess soil erosion in Mediterranean karst landscapes.     

Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

金川镍铜矿床数学模型对深部矿化变化趋势的指示

按矿化特征将金川X矿区主矿体分为致密块状特富矿、海绵状富矿和浸染状贫矿.应用MicroMine软件对3类矿化体分别建立了数学模型,并应用距离平方反比法对模型单元块进行了镍、铜品位估值.通过分析和对比矿床数学模型900m至1300m不同水平剖面上的Ni、Cu品位及Ni/Cu比值的变化,得出在X矿区的中部西侧是一个Ni和Cu的矿化中心,并且向深部Cu的矿化强度高于Ni.     

Detection of free vertical convection and double-diffusion in groundwater monitoring wells with geophysical borehole measurements

Two algorithms for in-situ detection and identification of vertical free convective and double-diffusive flows in groundwater monitoring wells or boreholes are proposed. With one algorithm the causes (driving forces) and with the other one the effects (convection or double-diffusion) of vertical transport processes can be detected based on geophysical borehole measurements in the water column. Five density-driven flow processes are identified: thermal, solutal, and thermosolutal convection leading to an equalization, as well as saltfingers and diffusive layering leading to an intensification of a vertical density gradient. The occurrence of density-driven transport processes could be proven in many groundwater monitoring wells and boreholes; especially shallow sections of boreholes or groundwater monitoring wells are affected dramatically by such vertical flows. Deep sections are also impaired as the critical threshold for the onset of a density-driven flow is considerably low. In monitoring wells or boreholes, several sections with different types of density-driven vertical flows may exist at the same time. Results from experimental investigations in a medium-scale testing facility with high aspect ratio (height/radius = 19) and from numerical modeling of a water column agree well with paramters of in-situ detected convection cells.