MJO与中间层-低热层风场潮汐DE3季节内变化性的关联

本文结合TIMED-TIDI卫星与流星雷达子午链风场观测数据,分析了中间层-低热层（MLT）区域非迁移潮汐DE3的季节内变化性及其与对流层MJO的可能关联.结果揭示了DE3风场潮汐广泛存在显著的宽频带季节内变化信号,且强度存在季节依赖.纬向风DE3潮汐（DE3-U）季节内变化在北半球冬季具有较强幅值,可达季节平均的1~2倍,而在其他季节通常在20%以内.结合MJO指数进一步讨论了不同季节下DE3-U对MJO的响应.统计结果表明,在影响较大的北半球冬季,DE3-U通常在MJO第4—6位相时有更大的幅值（+10%~+40%）,而在其余位相时更小（-10%~-40%）.这表明对流层与MJO相关的对流活动通过潜热释放的纬向变化可影响高空大气非迁移潮汐的强度.

     

热带季节内振荡在印尼海区域东传路径的分布及其机制

本文利用降水数据,从拉格朗日观点追踪了热带季节内振荡（MJO）路径,对其在海洋性大陆（100°～120°E）区域的分布及机制进行了探讨。以24 h内超过12 mm的降水范围为MJO的对流区域,以该区域的“重心”为MJO的对流中心,追踪MJO的路径,并形成其路径集。由于向东传播的MJO主要发生在北半球冬季,因此我们聚焦于MJO在北半球冬季的路径分布特征。结果表明,以降水量来衡量,MJO事件主要从赤道附近（5°S～5°N）通过印尼海区域。这和前人以对外长波辐射（OLR）为指标得到的MJO在印尼海区域向南偏折有明显的区别。此外,与MJO伴随的降水主要从赤道附近通过的结论不依赖于厄尔尼诺–南方涛动（ENSO）及印度洋偶极子（IOD）等背景气候态。机制分析表明,与MJO伴随的降水通过印尼海区域的路径主要受强的海表热通量异常的调制,而与暖海表温度（SST）异常的区域并不一致,这也造成了从降水和OLR两个不同角度看到的MJO通过印尼海区域的路径不一致。     

认识和预报亚洲季风气候：前沿突破点和展望

改进我们对季风变化和可预报性的认识以便促进季风气候预报的发展是当前世界气候研究计划下属的国际季风研究（IMS）和亚洲季风年（AMY2007-2011）研究的一个主要目的。本文从以下方面回顾了亚洲季风气候研究的最新进展：（1）季风变化的机制和数值模拟,（2）可预报性的物理基础和极限,（3）气候预报的现状。文章的讨论侧重于周尺度到年际尺度,特别提出了季风气候研究中存在的若干科学问题和研究前沿上的可能突破点,讨论了季风预报研究的未来发展方向,旨在促进未来的季风研究,加深我们对季风气候动力学的理解,以及提高对亚洲季风气候变化的预报能力。     

不同时间尺度下长江口海域表层悬浮体浓度变化

长江入海泥沙是中国东部陆架海沉积物的主要来源之一。本文基于MODIS-Aqua卫星的遥感资料并结合实测悬浮体浓度,建立了基于颗粒物后向散射系数的悬浮体浓度的反演方法,获取了2002—2017年长江口海域的表层悬浮体浓度分布,并分析其在潮周期、季节内以及年际等不同时间尺度下的变化特征。结果表明,在潮周期内,长江口122.3°E以西海域表层悬浮体浓度大潮高于小潮,落潮大于涨潮,高潮大于低潮;在季节尺度内.6—8月表层悬浮体浓度逐渐增加。而122.3°E以东海域,则出现相反的情况;长江口122.3°E以西海域的夏季平均表层悬浮体浓度年际变化明显,主要受长江入海水沙量年际变化的影响。长江口122.3°E以东海域表层悬浮体浓度的年际变化几乎不受长江入海泥沙的影响。风向对悬浮体浓度的扩散具有显著的作用,南风有利于高浓度悬浮体向外海扩散,东风则抑制扩展。     

热带季节内振荡时空特征的诊断研究

文中应用谱分析、小波分析等方法及较长时段的资料进一步总结了热带季节内振荡的一些基本气候特征。热带季节内振荡主要活跃在 3个地区 ,最强的是西太平洋地区 ,其次是印度洋地区 ,第三是东太平洋沿岸的赤道以北地区。热带季节内振荡有明显的季节变化 ,西太平洋地区和印度洋地区的季节内振荡 1a中有两次极大值 ,冬季主要活跃在南半球 (10°S附近 ) ,而夏季则活跃在北半球 (10°N附近 ) ,春、秋季热带季节内振荡则明显减弱。东赤道太平洋北侧的季节内振荡只在夏季活跃 ,而冬季则很弱 ,且不随季节而南北移动。对于大气的大尺度要素 ,例如u风场 ,热带季节内振荡的能量主要集中在 1波。而对于像降水这样尺度较小的要素 ,热带季节内振荡的能量则相对较分散 ,尽管它仍然在 1波有最大的能量 ,但 2～ 4波也具有较接近的能量。热带季节内振荡以东移的波动为主。热带季节内振荡存在着年际甚至更长时间的变化。 2 0世纪 70年代末期季节内振荡的幅度有一明显的突变。     

Intraseasonal variability in subtropical South America as depicted by precipitation data

Daily precipitation data from three stations in subtropical Argentina are used to describe intraseasonal variability (20–90 days) during the austral summer. This variability is compared locally and regionally with that present in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, in order to evaluate the performance of this variable as a proxy for convection in the region. The influence of the intraseasonal activity of the South American Seesaw (SASS) leading convection pattern on precipitation is also explored. Results show that intraseasonal variability explains a significant portion of summer precipitation variance, with a clear maximum in the vicinity of the SASS subtropical center. Correlation analysis reveals that OLR can explain only a small portion of daily precipitation variability, implying that it does not constitute a proper proxy for precipitation on daily timescales. On intraseasonal timescales, though, OLR is able to reproduce the main features of precipitation variability. The dynamical conditions that promote the development of intraseasonal variability in the region are further analyzed for selected summers. Seasons associated with a strong intraseasonal signal in precipitation variability show distinctive wet/dry intraseasonal periods in daily raw data, and are associated with a well defined SASS-like spatial pattern of convection. During these summers, strong large-scale forcing (such as warm El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and/or tropical intraseasonal convective activity), and Rossby-wave-like circulation anomalies extending across the Pacific Ocean, are also observed.     

Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of waves in the Indian Ocean based on ERA-40 wave reanalysis

Based on the 45-year (09/1957-08/2008) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis dataset, this study analyzes interannual and interdecadal variabilities and intraseasonal oscillations of sea surface wind speed (WS), wind sea wave height (H^w), swell wave height (H^s) and significant wave height (H_s) in the Roaring Forties and tropical waters of the Indian Ocean, to determine swell propagation characteristics. The results show: (1) monthly variabilities of H^s in the Roaring Forties are in good agreement with those in tropical waters of the Indian Ocean; swell plays a dominant role in mixed waves throughout most of the Indian Ocean; and WS, H^w, H^s, and H_s exhibit a significant increasing trend over the 45-year study period. (2) H^s in the Roaring Forties and tropical waters of the Indian Ocean share a common period of 9.8–10.4 years on an interdecadal scale; and WS and H^s in the Roaring Forties and H^s in the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean share a common period of approximately 8 days (weekly oscillation) on an intraseasonal scale. (3) Swell of the Roaring Forties needs approximately 30 h to fully respond to the wind in this region. Approximately 84 h are required for H^s to propagate from the Roaring Forties to the tropical waters of the south Indian Ocean, while it takes approximately 132–138 h for H^s to propagate from the Roaring Forties to the tropical waters of the north Indian Ocean.     

An interface-condition substitution strategy for theoretical study of dissolution-timescale reactive infiltration instability in fluid-saturated porous rocks

A theoretical study of reactive infiltration instability is conducted on the dissolution timescale. In the present theoretical study, the transient behavior of a dissolution-timescale reactive infiltration system needs to be considered, so that the upstream region of the chemical dissolution front should be finite. In addition, the chemical dissolution front of finite thickness should be considered on the dissolution timescale. Owing to these different considerations, it is very difficult, even in some special cases, to derive the first-order perturbation solutions of the reactive infiltration system on the dissolution timescale. To overcome this difficulty, an interface-condition substitution strategy is proposed in this paper. The basic idea behind the proposed strategy is that although the first-order perturbation equations in the downstream region cannot be directly solved in a purely mathematical manner, they should hold at the planar reference front, which is the interface between the upstream region and the downstream region. This can lead to two new equations at the interface. The main advantage of using the proposed interface-condition substitution strategy is that through using the original interface conditions as a bridge, the perturbation solutions for the dimensionless acid concentration, dimensionless Darcy velocity, and their derivatives involved in the two new equations at the interface can be evaluated just by using the obtained analytical solutions in the upstream region. The proposed strategy has been successfully used to derive the dimensionless growth rate, which is the key issue associated with the theoretical study of dissolution-timescale reactive infiltration instability in fluid-saturated porous rocks.     

Pathways of intraseasonal variability in the Indonesian Throughflow region

The recent INSTANT measurements in the Indonesian archipelago revealed a broad spectrum of time scales that influence Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) variability, from intraseasonal (20–90 days) to interannual. The different time scales are visible in all transport and property fluxes and are the result of remote forcing by both the Pacific and Indian Ocean winds, and local forcing generated within the regional Indonesian seas. This study focuses on the time-dependent three-dimensional intraseasonal variability (ISV) in the ITF region, in particular at the locations of the INSTANT moorings at the Straits of Lombok, Ombai and Timor. Observations from the INSTANT program in combination with output from the Bluelink ocean reanalysis provide a comprehensive picture about the propagation of ISV in the ITF region. The reanalysis assimilates remotely sensed and in situ ocean observations into an ocean general circulation model to create a hindcast of ocean conditions. Data from the reanalysis and observations from the INSTANT program reveal that deep-reaching subsurface ISV in the eastern Indian Ocean and ITF is closely linked with equatorial wind stress anomalies in the central Indian Ocean. Having traveled more than 5000 km in about 14 days, the associated Kelvin waves can be detected as far east as the Banda Sea. ISV near the Straits of Ombai and Timor is also significantly influenced by local wind forcing from within the ITF region. At the INSTANT mooring sites the ocean reanalysis agrees reasonably well with the observations. Intraseasonal amplitudes are about ±1.0 °C and ±0.5 m/s for potential temperature and velocity anomalies. Associated phases of ISV are very similar in observations and the reanalysis. Where differences exist they can be traced back to likely deficits in the reanalysis, namely the lack of tidal dissipation, insufficient spatial resolution of fine-scale bathymetry in the model in narrow straits or errors in surface forcing.     

50年来中国沙尘暴的多时间尺度变化特征

采用中国强沙尘暴序列及其支撑数据集,对1958—2007年中国沙尘暴的时间序列进行小波分析,揭示了中国沙尘暴多时间尺度的复杂结构和总体变化趋势,给出不同时间尺度下沙尘暴变化的突变点,并对未来变化趋势进行了展望。结果表明：中国沙尘暴呈明显振荡式减少趋势,距平值在1985-1986年出现转折;50a中沙尘暴变化呈现从多到少的振荡形式,其减少趋势的振荡变化主要受6—8a和2～3a尺度变化的叠加影响,6～8a尺度变化出现了4次突变;1966、1985和2001年沙尘暴出现较强的变化是多时间尺度叠加的结果。2008年后的10～15a中,沙尘暴总体减少趋势将减缓,其平均值在1958-2007年平均值和1983-2007年平均值之间,2011年前后可能出现一个接近2001和2002年平均情况的峰值,随后仍和缓减少。