长江河口水流输运时间研究

利用水龄理论的新方法,借助环境水动力学模型定量讨论了多年平均径流条件下长江河口径流和潮汐作用对河口水流输运时间的影响。研究给出了长江河口水流输运时间的时空格局:多年平均流量条件下,水流从徐六泾输出至河口(122.5°E)大约需要24d,南、北槽分流口以上河段水流输运时间主要由径流控制,水流输运时间为8d,向下至拦门沙滩顶水域由径流和潮汐共同控制,水龄为16d,说明最大浑浊带区域的水流输运速度较上下游为慢,从一个侧面阐述了最大浑浊带区域水动力的特征;长江河口水流输运时间存在明显的层化现象,表底层相差最大值可达6d。数值模拟试验结果表明长江河口的潮汐作用是影响河口水流输运时间的关键要素,河口巨大的进潮量增强河口水流交换能力并减小水流输运时间,从而显著影响随水体运动的物质输运格局。水流输运时间研究,不仅可以成功应用于河口水动力环境的量化研究,而且可以为泥沙输运及污染物输运等环境变化研究提供动力的基础。     

南海ODP1143站上新世至更新世天文年代标尺的建立

基于底栖有孔虫δ18O的精确的年代标尺是古海洋学研究的基础, 特别是长度超过5 Ma, 分辨率小于5 ka的连续δ18O记录在全球大洋深海记录中更是凤毛麟角.在大西洋和东太平洋已经建立起了类似的代表性剖面, 如大西洋ODP659站和东太平洋ODP846站, 但在对全球气候有着重要影响的“西太平洋暖池区”还没有建立起这样的剖面.以南海大洋钻探184航次1143站底栖有孔虫的δ18O为材料, 建立了西太平洋地区跨越5 Ma、分辨率达2~ 3 ka的天文年代标尺.天文调谐的基本原理参照Imbrie et al.(1984), 并将斜率周期上8 ka的相位差和岁差周期上5 ka的相位差从晚更新世扩展到5 Ma; 调谐目标选用Laskar(1990)的斜率和岁差; 调谐方法采用了有别于ODP659站和ODP846站的自动轨道调谐方法(Yu and Ding, 1998).调谐结果显示, 1143站190.77 m、191个冰期、间冰期的深海沉积记录了5.02 Ma的南海古海洋学历史; 1143站布容/松山磁性反转事件的年龄为0.78 Ma, 与前人研究结果一致; 15个识别出的浮游有孔虫生物事件年龄部分与已经发表过的年龄相吻合, 部分为该生物事件在南沙海区的新年龄.由年代标尺推导出的南海沉积特征显示, 2.9 Ma是沉积速率的一个转折点, 在此之前, 平均线性沉积速率只有39.5 m/Ma, 冰期、间冰期平均波动幅度为50 m/Ma; 2.9 Ma以后, 平均线性沉积速率猛然上升到65.4 m/Ma, 冰期、间冰期平均波动幅度为200 m/Ma.此外, 南海的沉积速率还显示出冰期或间冰期中的亚冰阶沉积速率高, 而相邻的间冰期或亚间冰阶的沉积速率低, 这种特点在更新世尤为典型.这可能与全球冰量变化带来的冰期、间冰期差异性风化剥蚀和搬运有关.      

郑州邙山黄土碳酸盐和白云石含量记录的80 ka以来季风降水变化及驱动机制

揭示东亚季风气候精细变化过程和区域差异,是第四纪古气候学研究的重要内容。本文以季风影响显著的中原郑州黄土堆积上部31 m为研究对象,基于高密度光释光独立定年和619份样品的碳酸盐、白云石含量、磁化率测试,重建了约80 ka以来东亚季风降水/季风强度变化过程。黄土碳酸盐、白云石含量时间序列显示,末次间冰期末期以来,中原地区发生过数次季风降水增强事件,每次降水增强期持续时间短于岁差、偏心率等轨道周期,表明存在亚轨道时间尺度季风快速变化现象。中原黄土碳酸盐/白云石含量主要受土壤呼吸CO₂的影响,土壤呼吸CO₂含量由季风降水和土壤温度控制,因此,碳酸盐/白云石含量是东亚夏季风强度的良好替代指标。中原地区千年时间尺度的季风湿润和干旱事件与其他地区黄土、石笋记录具有同步性,证实在东亚季风降水核心区、中心区和边缘区千年时间尺度干湿变化的同步性,支持季风环流大空间同步增强的模式。这一季风降水型式与现代观测到的"南涝北旱"的"+-+"三极型季风降水分布不同,可能表明不同时间尺度季风降水型式有明显区别。进一步分析表明,季风降水增强/减少事件存在约22 ka和约1.6 ka的周期,表明低纬太阳辐射、大洋环流和高纬度冷事件对东亚季风的联合驱动作用。

     

Differential responses of hillslope and channel elements to rainfall events in a semi-arid area

The degree of hydrological connectivity of hillslope elements in a semi-arid climate was studied at the season and event timescales. Field data were obtained in Rambla Honda, a Medalus project field site situated in SE Spain, on micaschist bedrock and with 300 mm annual rainfall. The season timescale was assessed using correlation analysis between soil moisture and topographic indices. The event timescale was studied by a quasi-continuous monitoring of rainfall, soil moisture, runoff and piezometric levels. Results show that widespread transfers of water along the hillslope are unusual because potential conditions for producing overland flow or throughflow are spatially discontinuous and extremely short-lived. During extreme events, runoff coefficients may be locally high (ca. 40% on slope lengths of 10 m), but decrease dramatically at the hillslope scale (<10% on slope lengths of 50 m). Two mechanisms of overland flow generation have been identified: infiltration excess, and local subsurface saturation from upper layers. The former occurs during the initial stages of the event while the latter, which is quantitatively more important, takes place later and requires a certain time structure of rainfall intensities that allow saturation of the topsoil and the subsequent production of runoff. Hillslopes and alluvial fans function as runoff sources and sinks respectively. Permanent aquifers are lacking in Rambla Honda. Variable proportions of hillslope areas may contribute to flash floods in the main channel, but their contribution to the formation of saturated layers within the sediment fill is very limited.     

Interannual variations of the boreal summer intraseasonal variability predicted by ten atmosphere–ocean coupled models

The reproducibility of boreal summer intraseasonal variability (ISV) and its interannual variation by dynamical models are assessed through diagnosing 21-year retrospective forecasts from ten state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere coupled prediction models. To facilitate the assessment, we have defined the strength of ISV activity by the standard deviation of 20–90 days filtered precipitation during the boreal summer of each year. The observed climatological ISV activity exhibits its largest values over the western North Pacific and Indian monsoon regions. The notable interannual variation of ISV activity is found primarily over the western North Pacific in observation while most models have the largest variability over the central tropical Pacific and exhibit a wide range of variability in spatial patterns that are different from observation. Although the models have large systematic biases in spatial pattern of dominant variability, the leading EOF modes of the ISV activity in the models are closely linked to the models’ El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a feature that resembles the observed ISV and ENSO relationship. The ENSO-induced easterly vertical shear anomalies in the western and central tropical Pacific, where the summer mean vertical wind shear is weak, result in ENSO-related changes of ISV activity in both observation and models. It is found that the principal components of the predicted dominant modes of ISV activity fluctuate in a very similar way with observed ones. The model biases in the dominant modes are systematic and related to the external SST forcing. Thus the statistical correction method of this study based on singular value decomposition is capable of removing a large portion of the systematic errors in the predicted spatial patterns. The 21-year-averaged pattern correlation skill increases from 0.25 to 0.65 over the entire Asian monsoon region after applying the bias correction method to the multi-model ensemble mean prediction.     

1998年夏季HUBEX/GAME期间热量和水汽收支(英)

By using the high-resolution GAME reanalysis data, the heat and moisture budgets during the period of HUBEX/GAME in the summer of 1998 are calculated for exploring the thermodynamic features of Meiyu over the Changjiang-Huaihe (CH) valley. During the CH Meiyu period, an intensive vertically-integrated heat source and moisture sink are predominant over the heavy rainfall area of the CH valley, accompanied by strong upward motion at 500 hPa. The heat and moisture budgets show that the main diabatic heating component is condensation latent heat released by rainfall. As residual terms, the evaporation and sensible heating are relatively small. Based on the vertical distribution of the heat source and moisture sink, the nature of the rainfall is mixed, in which the convective rainfall is dominant with a considerable percentage of continuous stratiform rainfall. There are similar time evolutions of the main physical parameters(〈Q1〉,〈Q2〉,and vertical motion ω at 500 hPa).The time variations of〈Q1〉and〈Q2〉are in phase with those of -ω500, and have their main peaks within the CH Meiyu period. This shows the influence of the heat source on the dynamic structure of the atmosphere. The wavelet analyses of those time series display similar multiple timescale characteristics. During the CH Meiyu period, both the synoptic scale(～6 days) and mesoscale (～2 days and ～12 hours) increase obviously and cause heavy rainfall as well as the appearances of the maxima of the main physical parameters. Among them, the mesoscale systems are the main factors.     

认识和预报亚洲季风气候：前沿突破点和展望

改进我们对季风变化和可预报性的认识以便促进季风气候预报的发展是当前世界气候研究计划下属的国际季风研究（IMS）和亚洲季风年（AMY2007-2011）研究的一个主要目的。本文从以下方面回顾了亚洲季风气候研究的最新进展：（1）季风变化的机制和数值模拟,（2）可预报性的物理基础和极限,（3）气候预报的现状。文章的讨论侧重于周尺度到年际尺度,特别提出了季风气候研究中存在的若干科学问题和研究前沿上的可能突破点,讨论了季风预报研究的未来发展方向,旨在促进未来的季风研究,加深我们对季风气候动力学的理解,以及提高对亚洲季风气候变化的预报能力。     

热带季节内振荡时空特征的诊断研究

文中应用谱分析、小波分析等方法及较长时段的资料进一步总结了热带季节内振荡的一些基本气候特征。热带季节内振荡主要活跃在 3个地区 ,最强的是西太平洋地区 ,其次是印度洋地区 ,第三是东太平洋沿岸的赤道以北地区。热带季节内振荡有明显的季节变化 ,西太平洋地区和印度洋地区的季节内振荡 1a中有两次极大值 ,冬季主要活跃在南半球 (10°S附近 ) ,而夏季则活跃在北半球 (10°N附近 ) ,春、秋季热带季节内振荡则明显减弱。东赤道太平洋北侧的季节内振荡只在夏季活跃 ,而冬季则很弱 ,且不随季节而南北移动。对于大气的大尺度要素 ,例如u风场 ,热带季节内振荡的能量主要集中在 1波。而对于像降水这样尺度较小的要素 ,热带季节内振荡的能量则相对较分散 ,尽管它仍然在 1波有最大的能量 ,但 2～ 4波也具有较接近的能量。热带季节内振荡以东移的波动为主。热带季节内振荡存在着年际甚至更长时间的变化。 2 0世纪 70年代末期季节内振荡的幅度有一明显的突变。