On the choice of timescale in glacial rebound modelling: mantle viscosity estimates and the radiocarbon timescale

Most glacial rebound studies have been carried out with respect to the radiocarbon timescale, whose departures from the calendar timescale are becoming increasingly well established. In consequence, it has sometimes been argued that the choice of the radiocarbon timescale may invalidate some of the conclusions drawn from rebound and sea-level analyses. The purpose of this note is to compare rebound model results based on both timescales, using the British Isles data for the test. The results indicate that the choice of timescale is unimportant provided that the time dimension of viscosity is appropriately defined. The results confirm that the radiocarbon viscosities are about 15 per cent less than the corresponding calendar-time viscosities. Also, provided that consistency of timescales is maintained in the analysis, and that the time-accuracy estimates of the radiocarbon data reflect the departures from a linear timescale, the use of the radiocarbon timescale does not impinge on inferences drawn about the timing of melting of ice sheets or eustatic sea-level change.     

浙江时间多尺度台风暴雨增幅特征的统计研究

本文提出基于欧拉坐标方法的多时间尺度热带气旋(TC)暴雨增幅及极端暴雨增幅的概念来研究沿海地区TC暴雨增幅,从浙江省内67个国家级台站的整点时刻逐小时降水资料提取1973—2015年影响浙江的135个TC个例的逐1、3、6、12、24 h(1~24 h)降水增量样本,结合TC中心位置和强度信息,统计得到:浙江1~24 h时间分辨率下出现TC极端暴雨增幅阈值分别为29.1、51.9、88.3、103.9和123.9 mm;不同时间分辨率下浙江TC暴雨增幅频次具有比较一致的月际变化、年际变化、长期线性趋势特征,不同时长的TC暴雨增幅的日变化不尽相同;浙江发生TC暴雨增幅和极端暴雨增幅主要出现频率最高的地区是温州南部和台州南部。影响浙江台风9类路径都有可能发生TC暴雨增幅,除了舟山以北登陆类外,其他路径也均有可能发生TC极端暴雨增幅,TC暴雨增幅和TC极端暴雨增幅均以椒江到福清登陆类路径占比最多;TC中心位于浙江温台交界附近和福建东北部沿海时浙江最易发生TC暴雨增幅和极端暴雨增幅;不同分辨率下TC暴雨增幅和TC极端暴雨增幅发生频率最高的离TC中心距离是不同的,但TC暴雨增幅极大值均出现在距离台风中心600~700 km范围内;不同时间分辨率的TC暴雨增幅和TC极端暴雨增幅出现频率最高的是TC的东北象限,其次是西北象限,增幅极大值均出现在东北象限。另外,TC暴雨增幅和极端暴雨增幅均与TC强度有一定关系,从各时长平均来看,最易发生TC暴雨增幅的是强热带风暴级,最易发生TC极端暴雨增幅的是热带低压级。     

夏季东亚高空副热带西风急流季节内异常的环流特征及前兆信号

位于东亚中纬度上空的东亚高空副热带西风急流是东亚季风环流系统中的重要成员,我国夏季降水雨带的季节内变化受东亚高空副热带西风急流位置季节内异常变化影响。根据1979~2008年中国降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及NOAA ERSST V3月平均海表温度资料,利用统计分析和物理量诊断方法对夏季东亚高空副热带西风急流位置季节内异常的东亚大气环流特征及外强迫信号的物理过程进行了探讨。研究指出:6月东亚高空副热带西风急流位置异常主要受欧亚大陆中高纬东传的Rossby波列位相变化影响,春季北大西洋海温异常是欧亚大陆中高纬度Rossby波列位相变化的最显著的外强迫信号;7月东亚高空副热带西风急流位置异常主要受西太平洋热带向副热带传播的Rossby波列位相变化影响,春季西太平洋热带海温异常是西太平洋热带向副热带传播的Rossby波列位相变化的最显著的外强迫信号;8月东亚高空副热带西风急流位置异常主要受南亚大陆向东亚大陆热带、副热带传播的Rossby波列位相变化影响,春季印度洋海温异常是南亚大陆向东亚大陆热带、副热带传播的Rossby波列位相变化的最显著的外强迫信号。     

近50 a华南盛夏降水的季节内差异及大气环流异常特征分析

基于CRU、CMAP、PREC/L、CN05.1、NCEP/NCAR以及全国160个台站的月降水资料,采用经验正交函数(EOF)分解、依赖于季节的经验正交函数(SEOF)分解、滑动平均、空间相关、回归以及合成分析等多元统计方法研究了近50 a华南盛夏降水异常的基本特征及其季节内差异,并讨论了其大气环流异常。结果表明:(1)盛夏7、8月华南降水异常的空间分布都表现为区域一致性,即整个华南地区都为正(负)异常。(2)华南盛夏降水异常在月季变化的时间尺度上存在着同位相和反位相演变,1963—1993年,华南7、8月降水大致为反相演变,即7月华南全区一致偏涝(旱)而8月一致偏旱(涝);1994—2015年,二者总体表现为同相演变,即7月华南全区降水一致偏涝(旱)时8月亦一致偏涝(旱)。(3)大气遥相关型的变化是同相和反相两种演变模态产生的主要原因,同相期间对流层中层7月表现为欧亚遥相关(EU)和东亚太平洋遥相关(EAP)相互配置,8月表现为类似EU和太平洋北美遥相关(PNA)型;反相期间对流层中层7月表现为类似北美东西遥相关(NAEW)型,8月表现为类似EAP型。(4)西太平洋副热带高压的变化与华南盛夏降水季节内差异密切相关。反相期间7月与8月西太平洋副热带高压的差异主要体现在东西位置变化较大,而同相期间变化不大。     

Decadal changes in distribution and frequency of wood in a free meandering river,the Ain River,France

This study examined the temporal dynamics and longitudinal distribution of wood over a multi‐decadal timescale at the river reach scale (36 km) and a meander bend scale (300–600 m) in the Ain River, a large gravel‐bed river flowing through a forested corridor, and adjusting to regulation and floodplain land‐use change. At the 36 km scale, more wood was recruited by bank erosion in 1991–2000 than since the 1950s. The longitudinal distribution of accumulations was similar between 1989 and 1999, but in both years individual pieces occurred homogeneously throughout the reach, while jam distribution was localized, associated with large concave banks. A relationship between the mean number of pieces and the volume recruited by bank erosion (r² = 0·97) indicated a spatial relationship between areas of wood production and storage. Wood mass stored and produced and channel sinuosity increased from 1993 to 2004 at three meander bends. Sinuosity was related to wood mass recruited by bank erosion during the previous decade (r² = 0·73) and both of these parameters were correlated to the mean mass of wood/plot (r² = 0·98 and 0·69 respectively), appearing to control wood storage and delivery at the bend scale. This suggests a local origin of wood stored in channel, not input from upstream trapped by preferential sites. The increase in wood since 1950 is a response to floodplain afforestation, to a change from braided to meandering channel pattern in response to regulation, and to recent large floods. We observed temporal stability of supply and depositional sectors over a decade (on a reach scale). Meander bends were major storage sites, trapping wood with concave banks, also delivering wood. These results, and the link between sinuosity and wood frequency, establish geomorphology as a dominant wood storage and recruitment control in large gravel‐bed rivers. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南海ODP1143站上新世至更新世天文年代标尺的建立

基于底栖有孔虫δ18O的精确的年代标尺是古海洋学研究的基础, 特别是长度超过5 Ma, 分辨率小于5 ka的连续δ18O记录在全球大洋深海记录中更是凤毛麟角.在大西洋和东太平洋已经建立起了类似的代表性剖面, 如大西洋ODP659站和东太平洋ODP846站, 但在对全球气候有着重要影响的“西太平洋暖池区”还没有建立起这样的剖面.以南海大洋钻探184航次1143站底栖有孔虫的δ18O为材料, 建立了西太平洋地区跨越5 Ma、分辨率达2~ 3 ka的天文年代标尺.天文调谐的基本原理参照Imbrie et al.(1984), 并将斜率周期上8 ka的相位差和岁差周期上5 ka的相位差从晚更新世扩展到5 Ma; 调谐目标选用Laskar(1990)的斜率和岁差; 调谐方法采用了有别于ODP659站和ODP846站的自动轨道调谐方法(Yu and Ding, 1998).调谐结果显示, 1143站190.77 m、191个冰期、间冰期的深海沉积记录了5.02 Ma的南海古海洋学历史; 1143站布容/松山磁性反转事件的年龄为0.78 Ma, 与前人研究结果一致; 15个识别出的浮游有孔虫生物事件年龄部分与已经发表过的年龄相吻合, 部分为该生物事件在南沙海区的新年龄.由年代标尺推导出的南海沉积特征显示, 2.9 Ma是沉积速率的一个转折点, 在此之前, 平均线性沉积速率只有39.5 m/Ma, 冰期、间冰期平均波动幅度为50 m/Ma; 2.9 Ma以后, 平均线性沉积速率猛然上升到65.4 m/Ma, 冰期、间冰期平均波动幅度为200 m/Ma.此外, 南海的沉积速率还显示出冰期或间冰期中的亚冰阶沉积速率高, 而相邻的间冰期或亚间冰阶的沉积速率低, 这种特点在更新世尤为典型.这可能与全球冰量变化带来的冰期、间冰期差异性风化剥蚀和搬运有关.      

不同PDO位相下El Niño发展年和La Niña年东亚夏季风的季节内变化

基于1957~2017年观测和再分析资料,合成分析了北太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO)不同位相下El Ni?o发展年和La Nina年东亚夏季风的环流、降水特征及季节内变化。结果表明,PDO正、负位相作为背景场,分别对El Ni?o发展年、La Nina年东亚夏季风及夏季降水具有加强作用。PDO正位相一方面可增强El Ni?o发展年夏季热带中东太平洋暖海温异常信号,另一方面通过冷海温状态加强中高纬东亚大陆与西北太平洋的环流异常,从而在一定程度上增强了东亚夏季风环流的异常程度;反之,PDO负位相则增强了La Nina年热带海气相互作用以及中高纬环流(如东北亚反气旋)的异常。在季节内变化方面,El Ni?o发展年6月贝湖以东反气旋性环流为东亚地区带来稳定的北风异常,东北亚位势高度减弱;7月开始,环流形势发生调整,日本以东洋面出现气旋性异常,东亚大陆偏北风及位势高度负异常均得到加强;8月,随着东亚夏季风季节进程和El Ni?o发展,西太平洋出现气旋性环流异常,东亚副热带位势高度进一步降低,西北太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)明显东退。La Nina年6月异常较弱,主要环流差异自7月西北太平洋为大范围气旋性异常控制开始,东亚-太平洋遥相关型显著,副高于季节内始终偏弱偏东。上述两种情况下,均造成东亚地区夏季降水总体上偏少,尤其是中国北方降水显著偏少。     

Pluri-decadal evolution of rock glaciers surface velocity and its impact on sediment export rates towards high alpine torrents

The acceleration of surface velocities observed over the last two decades on monitored rock glaciers worldwide is a widespread signal of the probable control of warming air temperatures on long-term permafrost creep. Yet, the actual consequences of this acceleration on sediment availability in high mountain catchments have never been properly estimated at the pluri-decadal scale. The present study evaluates the sediment transfer activity between five rock glaciers located in the western European Alps and the headwaters of the torrential channels they are respectively connected to. It reposes on the orthorectification of aerial images available generally from the 1960s to the mid-2010, to reconstruct time-series of (i) horizontal surface velocities and (ii) frontal erosion rates. Values of horizontal velocity are retrieved by tracking the displacement of boulders on the surface of rock glaciers between consecutive images while erosion rates affecting the fronts are calculated by combining these values of displacement with the geometry of the front (mean width and rock glacier thickness) derived from recent high-resolution digital elevation models. Results confirm the general acceleration of rock glaciers surface velocities since the 1970s and indicate that this accelerating trend is causing an increase in the erosion rates calculated at the front of most studied rock glaciers. In some cases and over specific periods however, the acceleration resulted in the advance of the whole landforms over their own sediments, leading to a comparatively low sediment export towards the torrents.     

热带大气季节内振荡的几个基本问题

在一系列资料分析、数值模拟试验和理论研究的基础上，对热带大气季节内（３０－６０天）振荡的几个基本问题进行系统的综合讨论，包括热带大气季节内振荡的地域特征、空间尺度特征、水平传播特征、与中高纬度大气季节内振荡的联系、同Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ间的相互作用以及热带大气季节内振荡的动力学机制。通过讨论和分析，对热带大气季节内振荡得到一个更全面和更系统的认识。     

长江河口水流输运时间研究

利用水龄理论的新方法,借助环境水动力学模型定量讨论了多年平均径流条件下长江河口径流和潮汐作用对河口水流输运时间的影响。研究给出了长江河口水流输运时间的时空格局:多年平均流量条件下,水流从徐六泾输出至河口(122.5°E)大约需要24d,南、北槽分流口以上河段水流输运时间主要由径流控制,水流输运时间为8d,向下至拦门沙滩顶水域由径流和潮汐共同控制,水龄为16d,说明最大浑浊带区域的水流输运速度较上下游为慢,从一个侧面阐述了最大浑浊带区域水动力的特征;长江河口水流输运时间存在明显的层化现象,表底层相差最大值可达6d。数值模拟试验结果表明长江河口的潮汐作用是影响河口水流输运时间的关键要素,河口巨大的进潮量增强河口水流交换能力并减小水流输运时间,从而显著影响随水体运动的物质输运格局。水流输运时间研究,不仅可以成功应用于河口水动力环境的量化研究,而且可以为泥沙输运及污染物输运等环境变化研究提供动力的基础。