气候平均状况下亚洲夏季风的季节内演变过程

根据1979—1995年美国NOAA的向外长波辐射逐日资料,用功率谱分析和带通滤波方法,对气候平均状况下亚洲夏季风的季节内演变过程进行分析,归纳得到亚洲季风区各个子系统季节内变化的8个关键阶段。利用1979—1999年NCEP/NCAR的大气环流再分析资料及中国气象局降水资料CMAP,对每个关键阶段亚洲夏季风的环流和降水的时空演变特征进行分析,得到亚洲季风区环流和降水季节内变化的物理图像。研究表明,在不同的季节内演变阶段,亚洲夏季风各个子系统成员的环流系统的变化特征可以将亚洲夏季风系统的季节内演变过程较好地描述出来。     

Regional seasonality in the intraseasonal oscillation over the Indo-Pacific Oceans

The interlinked Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) and Western Pacific Ocean (WPO), known as the Indo-Pacific warm pool, are highly active regions for intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). Interestingly, distinct behaviors exist in ISO seasonality in these two basins. In the WPO, ISO intensity peaks in winter, decays rapidly starting from spring and reaches a minimum in summer. While in the EIO, ISO intensity exhibits a bimodal distribution, with a stronger peak in spring and a weaker one in autumn, followed by two troughs in summer and winter, respectively. Here, the regional ISO seasonality is understood in view of the regional differences in the background fields. For the bimodal ISO seasonality in the EIO, the increase from winter to spring is primarily due to elevated moisture content, the decrease from spring to summer is due to the decline in moisture and the meridional variation in vertical wind shear, and the increase from summer to autumn is mainly attributed to the meridional variation in vertical wind shear. In the WPO, the significant winter-summer contrast is mainly caused by change in moisture content.     

Propagation and influence on tropical precipitation of intraseasonal variation over mid-latitude East Asia in boreal winter

本文研究冬季东亚中纬度地区9–29天季节内变化的传播特征和其对热带降水的影响。分析发现风场的季节内信号既可以向东传播,也可以向南传播。向东传播时,风场的季节内信号主要限于中纬度地区,表现为气旋和反气旋的向东移动。向南传播时,源于中纬度的经向风扰动可以深入到低纬度地区,甚至到达赤道附近。伴随的辐合辐散引起赤道附近地区降水异常,形成南海南部和中国东部-日本之间一个南北向偶极型降水异常。一个异常经向翻转环流在连接热带和中纬度季节内风场和降水变化中起着重要作用。     

季节内振荡影响西太平洋副热带高压两次北跳的机制

夏季期间,西太平洋副热带高压（简称副高）存在两次明显的北跳,其中第一次北跳导致华南前汛期结束、江淮梅雨建立,而第二次北跳则意味着江淮梅雨结束、华北雨季开始。本文基于观测资料和再分析数据,利用快速傅里叶变换和合成分析方法,深入探讨不同时间尺度季节内振荡对气候态和异常年副高两次北跳的影响机制。结果表明:在季节内尺度上,平常年和异常年影响副高两次北跳的季节内振荡的主导周期不同。气候态上,以10~20天和准60天为主;第一次北跳异常年和第二次北跳偏早年,以30~60天为主;第二次北跳偏晚年,则呈现出10~20天和30~60天两个主导周期。不论气候态还是异常年,东亚—热带西北太平洋地区低频振荡在年循环背景下均呈现出明显的北传特征,这是导致副高发生两次北跳的重要原因之一。而印度季风区低频振荡在东北向传播过程中所引起的西风东伸是造成副高第一次北跳更为明显的原因。源自澳大利亚高压的冷空气入侵所激发的暖池对流的准双周振荡则是造成气候态和偏晚年副高第二次北跳更为显著的原因。由于前期春季西北印度洋海温出现异常,造成局地低频振荡发生位相迁移,进而导致副高第一次北跳发生异常。而副高第二次北跳异常则是因为ENSO改变了暖池地区季节内振荡的尺度和振幅所造成的。     

长江中游和下游夏季降水季节内振荡的差异

利用1979~2013年中国站点逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对长江中下游夏季降水的季节内振荡最显著周期进行了分析研究。结果表明长江中游最显著周期为10~30天,长江下游最显著周期为30~60天。为了揭示这种差异产生的物理原因,进一步利用位相合成的方法对这两个区域不同周期的季节内振荡降水、高低空风场和高度场以及垂直结构和水汽等循环过程的演变特征进行分析。在200 hPa环流场上,长江中游的降水主要受到高纬度自西向东传播的波列影响,而长江下游的降水与鄂霍次克海的高度场的变化相关。在风场的垂直涡度和散度的位相结构演变过程中,10~30天的垂直涡度和散度有自北向南的移动,30~60天的垂直涡度和散度在长江以南地区有自南向北的传播。水汽输送的位相发展过程表明,长江中游的水汽分别来自于南海的向北输送和长江以北地区向南的水汽输送;长江下游地区的水汽则主要来自于热带东印度洋经孟加拉湾的向东输送并在南海的北向输送,以及西太平洋水汽向西输送到南海再向长江下游的输送。从高层大尺度环流场和整层积分的水汽通量输送上解释了长江中游10~30天降水的自北向南移动,和长江下游30~60天降水自南向北传播的原因。     

1998年夏季长江流域大气季节内振荡的结构演变及其对降水的影响

利用中国逐日降水格点资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,对1998年发生在我国东部长江中下游流域的夏季持续性强降水过程中显著的大气季节内振荡(ISO)的三维结构演变等活动特征进行了分析。1998年夏季长江及江南地区的异常强降水对应着该地区强的ISO活动。利用位相合成方法,对长江流域两个典型的季节内循环周期的ISO降水、850 hPa水平风场以及水汽和垂直速度等循环过程的时空分布特征进行了诊断分析。在低频环流场上,对流层低层的低频气旋和反气旋环流表现出交替在热带西北太平洋增强并向西偏北方向移动发展的特征,当异常气旋环流移动到长江流域上空时,长江流域正好位于气旋环流西南侧的东北风异常和西北太平洋上向西移动的反气旋环流西北侧的西南风异常环流汇合处的下方,引起该地区强降水的发生。在强降水阶段的ISO的垂直结构上,上升运动和水汽表现出从华南到长江流域自南向北移动的特征,强烈的垂直上升运动以及来自南方充足的水汽为增强长江流域地区的降水起到了重要作用。     

Distinct intensity of 10–30-day intraseasonal waves over the North Pacific between early and late summers

The authors’ previous study identified the wave trains of intraseasonal oscillations, which are mainly in the band of 10–30 days, over the North Pacific during summer. The wave trains are zonally oriented and trapped along the upper-tropospheric westerly jet, and accordingly gain energy mainly through baroclinic energy conversion. In this study, the authors investigate the distinct features of the wave trains between early summer (1 June to 7 July) and late summer (8 July to 31 August), considering that the westerly jet experiences a remarkable subseasonal variation over the North Pacific during summer—that is, the jet is much stronger in early summer than late summer. The results indicate that the wave trains are stronger in early summer compared with late summer. Further analysis suggests that, in early summer, the wave trains can obtain energy more efficiently from the basic flow; or more exactly, stronger westerlies through baroclinic energy conversion.摘要我们之前的研究工作表明, 夏季北太平洋上空存在主导周期为10-30天的季节内波列, 波列纬向分布于上层西风急流带中, 并通过斜压能量转换从基本气流获取能量得到发展和维持. 由于西风急流在前夏(6月1日–7月7日)明显强于后夏(7月8日–8月31日), 因而, 在本研究中, 我们着重研究了波列在前, 后夏的不同特征. 研究结果表明, 波列强度在前夏明显强于后夏, 其原因在于波列在前夏能够通过斜压能量转换从更强的西风中获取更多的能量.     

Pathways of intraseasonal variability in the Indonesian Throughflow region

The recent INSTANT measurements in the Indonesian archipelago revealed a broad spectrum of time scales that influence Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) variability, from intraseasonal (20–90 days) to interannual. The different time scales are visible in all transport and property fluxes and are the result of remote forcing by both the Pacific and Indian Ocean winds, and local forcing generated within the regional Indonesian seas. This study focuses on the time-dependent three-dimensional intraseasonal variability (ISV) in the ITF region, in particular at the locations of the INSTANT moorings at the Straits of Lombok, Ombai and Timor. Observations from the INSTANT program in combination with output from the Bluelink ocean reanalysis provide a comprehensive picture about the propagation of ISV in the ITF region. The reanalysis assimilates remotely sensed and in situ ocean observations into an ocean general circulation model to create a hindcast of ocean conditions. Data from the reanalysis and observations from the INSTANT program reveal that deep-reaching subsurface ISV in the eastern Indian Ocean and ITF is closely linked with equatorial wind stress anomalies in the central Indian Ocean. Having traveled more than 5000 km in about 14 days, the associated Kelvin waves can be detected as far east as the Banda Sea. ISV near the Straits of Ombai and Timor is also significantly influenced by local wind forcing from within the ITF region. At the INSTANT mooring sites the ocean reanalysis agrees reasonably well with the observations. Intraseasonal amplitudes are about ±1.0 °C and ±0.5 m/s for potential temperature and velocity anomalies. Associated phases of ISV are very similar in observations and the reanalysis. Where differences exist they can be traced back to likely deficits in the reanalysis, namely the lack of tidal dissipation, insufficient spatial resolution of fine-scale bathymetry in the model in narrow straits or errors in surface forcing.     

北京气候中心大气模式对季节内振荡的模拟

对北京气候中心大气模式(BCC AGCM2.0.1)模拟热带季节内振荡的能力进行了检验.北京气候中心新一代气候模式(BCC AGCM2.0.1)是在原中国国家气候中心模式的基础上参考NCAR CAM3改进形成的.新模式中引进了一个新的参考大气和参考面气压.因此原模式的预报量中的气温(T)和地面气压(p_s)则变为它们对参考大气气温的偏差和对参考面气压的偏差.模式还加入了新的Zhang-Mcfarlane对流参数化方案,并对其参数计算方法进行调整和改进.此外还对模式边界层处理、雪盖计算等进行了改进.上述模式在实测的月海温作为下边界条件的情况下运行52年(1949年9月-2001年10月).然后对运行结果中的季节内振荡的状况进行分析,主要结果如下:NCAR CAM3模式模拟热带季节内振荡的能力很差,主要表现在模拟的热带季节内振荡强度很弱;东移波与西移波的强度很接近,而实际观测中是东移波的能量要远大于西移波;季节内振荡的季节变化及空间分布与观测相差很远.北京气候中心大气模式(BCC AGCM2.0.1)模拟热带季节内振荡的能力有显著的提高.模拟的热带季节内振荡很明显,强度接近于观测结果;模拟东移波的能量要大于西移波,这与观测较为一致;季节内振荡的季节变化和空间分布与观测相差不大.总的来看,BCC AGCM2.0.1模式在模拟热带季节内振荡方面比CAM3模式有明显的改进.