International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls

There is increasing interest in the water–food nexus, especially the restrictive effect of water on food production in hot spots where irrigation stress is growing. However, little is known about the larger-scale implications of future irrigation shortfalls for global trade and economic welfare, as well as of the potential buffering impacts of international trade on the local impacts of irrigation shortage. In this paper, we utilize a recently developed model, GTAP-BIO-W, to study the economic effects of changes in irrigation outlook for 126 river basins, globally by 2030. Projected irrigation availability is obtained from the IMPACT-WATER model, and imposed upon the present-day economy. Irrigation availability in 2030 is expected to drop by 30–60% in several key rivers basins, including: Hai He, Indus, Luni, and the Eastern Mediterranean basin, leading to significant output declines in China, South Asia, and the Middle East. We find that the regional production impacts of future irrigation water shortages are quite heterogeneous, depending on the size of the shortfall, the irrigation intensity of crop production, the possibility of expanding rainfed areas, as well as the crop mix. These changes in regional output significantly alter the geography of international trade. To compensate for the loss of productivity caused by the irrigation constraint, an estimated 7.6 million hectares of cropland expansion is needed to meet the demand for food. In spite of the remarkable reduction of irrigation in some basins, the resulting welfare impact is relatively modest as a result of the buffering capacity of global markets. The global welfare loss amounts to $3.7 billion (2001 prices) and results from a combination of the reduction in irrigation availability as well as the interplay with agricultural support policies.     

Trade in ‘virtual carbon’: Empirical results and implications for policy

The fact that developing countries do not have carbon emission caps under the Kyoto Protocol has led to the current interest in high income countries in border taxes on the ‘virtual’ carbon content of imports. We use GTAP data and input-output analysis to estimate the flows of virtual carbon implicit in domestic production technologies and the pattern of international trade. The results present striking evidence on the wide variation in the carbon-intensiveness of trade across countries, with major developing countries being large net exporters of virtual carbon. Our analysis suggests that a tax on virtual carbon could lead to very substantial effective tariff rates on the exports of the most carbon-intensive developing nations. As an illustration, we find that average tariff rates of 10%, 8% and 12% would be faced by imports from China, India and South Africa if carbon is taxed at $50/ton CO₂. Moreover, there is wide variation in intensiveness across sectors within countries with implications for the disparate effective tariff burdens on particulars parts of the economies of these countries. Such empirical findings, we argue, are useful for framing on-going discussions about the principles and practice of border taxes on virtual carbon.     

GSD‐1G and MPI‐DING Reference Glasses for In Situ and Bulk Isotopic Determination

This paper contains the results of an extensive isotopic study of United States Geological Survey GSD‐1G and MPI‐DING reference glasses. Thirteen different laboratories were involved using high‐precision bulk (TIMS, MC‐ICP‐MS) and microanalytical (LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS, LA‐ICP‐MS) techniques. Detailed studies were performed to demonstrate the large‐scale and small‐scale homogeneity of the reference glasses. Together with previously published isotopic data from ten other laboratories, preliminary reference and information values as well as their uncertainties at the 95% confidence level were determined for H, O, Li, B, Si, Ca, Sr, Nd, Hf, Pb, Th and U isotopes using the recommendations of the International Association of Geoanalysts for certification of reference materials. Our results indicate that GSD‐1G and the MPI‐DING glasses are suitable reference materials for microanalytical and bulk analytical purposes.     

Accounting for carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping: Burden sharing under different UNFCCC allocation options and regime scenarios

CO₂ emissions from international shipping, which are currently unregulated, are predicted to rise dramatically if no regulations are implemented. International bunker fuel emissions have been excluded from the Kyoto Protocol; the UNFCCC conference in Copenhagen also failed to bring about clear directions on how to proceed with these emissions.     

Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: Review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues

Conventional sectoral management and piecemeal governance are considered less and less appropriate in pursuit of sustainable development. Ecosystem based marine spatial management (EB-MSM) is an approach that recognizes the full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including human uses, rather than considering single issues, species, or ecosystem services in isolation. Marine spatial planning and ocean zoning are emerging concepts that can support EB-MSM. EB-MSM is driven by high-level goals that managers aim to achieve through the implementation of measures. High-level goals and objectives need to be translated into more operational objectives before specific targets, limits and measures can be elaborated.Monitoring, evaluation and adaptation are necessary to ensure that marine management measures are both effective and efficient. Solid monitoring frameworks are the foundation of adaptive management, as they provide the necessary information to evaluate performance and the effectiveness of management actions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) - possibly set up in networks - constitute a key component in EB-MSM policies and practises and have been applied as a cornerstone in conservation of marine biodiversity, management of fish populations, development of coastal tourism, etc. Moreover, MPA experiences have provided methods and concepts (such as zoning) to a wider EB-MSM context. The assignment of values to biophysical features of the marine environment allows the direct assessment of related management choices and may assist EB-MSM.A range of monetary valuation techniques have been proposed to reduce attributes of goods and services to a single metric. However, in the marine environment such an approach is often over simplistic, and thus less reductive techniques may be necessary. Rather than producing a single metric, the results of non-monetary assessments guide policy allowing weight to be given as necessary to potential areas of conflict and consensus.Strategies to take into account climate change effects and geohazard risks in EB-MSM have been applied or proposed worldwide. EB-MSM regimes must be alert to such risks and flexible to account for changes.     

基于INSTANT数据对ITF流出海峡海流的功率谱分析

利用INSTANT(The International Nusantara Stratification and Transport,努沙登加拉层结及输运的国际联合观测计划)计划所测得的流场数据,研究了ITF(Indonesian Throughflow,印度尼西亚贯穿流)在主要流出海峡——龙目海峡(Lombok Strait)、翁拜海峡(Ombai Strait)和帝汶海峡(Timor Passage)随深度和时间的变化,并对表层和温跃层的流速进行了功率谱分析。研究发现,ITF流场在龙目和翁拜海峡表层有显著的年循环,在季风转换期间各个层次上海流都会出现反转,从印度洋流向海峡内;而帝汶海峡在300m以下出现反转流。3个海峡的表层流都以年周期为主,温跃层的流以半年变化为主,并且都有丰富的季节内变化。高频部分,除了在龙目海峡表层K1日潮占优外,各海峡均以M2半日潮为主。     

Addressing knowledge gaps for transboundary environmental governance

Knowledge is widely considered a key ingredient for the effective and sustainable governance of the environment. In transboundary settings – i.e., where political boundaries cross natural resource system boundaries – there are considerable barriers to knowledge production and use. Resulting knowledge gaps can be barriers to governance. This research examines three case studies in which international river basin organizations, tasked with facilitating cooperation in transboundary river basins, recognized and addressed knowledge gaps to support governance of shared waters. We synthesize across the three case studies to develop a typology of knowledge gaps and the strategies used to address those gaps. In identifying common types of knowledge gaps and the on-the-ground strategies used to fill them, this research provides an important framework for assessing and theorizing knowledge at the transboundary scale, as well as useful recommendations and examples for practitioners seeking to develop that knowledge.     

International legal options for the control of biofouling on international vessels

Shipping represents a threat as a vector for the transfer of non-indigenous marine species through the discharge of ballast water and biofouling of vessels’ external structures and internal piping. While considerable attention has been given to the management of ballast water, there currently exists no international legal instrument with which to control biofouling.A number of existing legal mechanisms may be applicable in the context of coastal States’ rights under international law. However, existing mechanisms are insufficient to regulate all aspects of the biofouling problem to ensure comprehensive management of the issue. There is, therefore, a need for the development of a comprehensive international agreement to address this gap. The issue of biofouling on international vessels has now been included on the work programme of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). As a contribution to discussions on how to address this particular issue at an international level, this article provides an analysis of the options available through the IMO to address this issue.Having defined the specific “threat scenario” with regard to hull fouling, the article will consider: (i) the international legal framework that has been established to regulate the harmful impacts of international shipping; (ii) the range of practical measures that are available to manage biofouling on vessels; and (iii) international legal options available to States to address the threat of biofouling posed by international shipping.     

The international whaling regime post 2007

Japan's delegation to the International Whaling Commission (IWC) must have gone to the 2007 meeting in Anchorage believing that the prospects of at least the commencement of the process leading to the overturning of the moratorium were better than they had been since 1986. The passing of the St. Kitts and Nevis Declaration at the 2006 Meeting, the gathering momentum of their Normalisation agenda, and their own determination to compromise some of their own agenda in the interest of harmony within the IWC, would have formed the basis of this belief. The reality was totally different. There was no compromise by the anti-whaling group within the meeting who also regained the simple majority position which had been lost in 2006.