Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Neoliberalizing environmental governance? Land trusts, private conservation and nature on the Oak Ridges Moraine

With recent changes in the ways that state agencies are implementing their environmental policies, the line between public and private is becoming increasingly blurred. This includes shifts from state-led implementation of environmental policies to conservation plans that are implemented and managed by multi-sectoral networks of governments, the private sector and environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs). This paper examines land trusts as private conservation initiatives that become part of neoliberal governance arrangements and partnerships that challenge our conceptions of environmental preservation and democratic participation. The paper starts with an examination of the concept of neoliberalized environmental governance. Next, it addresses the shifting social constructions of property and land in the context of protecting large scale ecosystems. Through a case study of the extension of new environmental governance arrangements on the Oak Ridges Moraine in Ontario, we examine the relationships that have formed between different levels of the state and environmental non-governmental organizations. Finally, we analyze the expansion of land trusts and private conservation initiatives that are predicated on private land ownership and the commodification of nature, the emerging discourses and practices of private conservation, and how these are implicated in the privatization and neoliberalization of nature.     

Water and power in Santiago de Chile: Socio-spatial segregation through network integration

The analysis of the history of the management and distribution of electricity, water and sanitation networks in Santiago de Chile throws light on a problem which is central to thinking on the relationship between urban services management and territorial splintering: what is the impact of urban policy, in particular housing policy and urban planning, on access to services and on the potential levels of social segregation and institutional splintering of metropolises?The Chilean example is eminently anchored in its political and institutional history. We shall see, for example, that the authoritarian urban policy of the military government, associated with early liberal reform, enabled the improvement of access to networks in every municipality of the Greater Santiago area. However, this success, leading to the integration by urban services of a large territory, does not signify that networks remained neutral as regards the process of spatial segregation. Inversely, we can defend the theory that the presence of an integrated service was a necessary condition and a reinforcing factor of the process of urban spread and residential segregation. This paradoxical argument is a result of the ambivalent liberal network and urban policies of the military government. Urban expansion was largely sustained by the development of integrated infrastructures and universal services. The processes of liberalising land and urban services were mutually sustaining and provided the necessary conditions for the birth of an extremely intense movement of urban sprawl and segregation between 1985 and 2000.     

Reducing hazard vulnerability through local government engagement and action

The concept of a natural hazard is a human construct. It is the interaction with human communities and settlements that defines a natural phenomenon as a natural hazard. Thus the end point of hazard mitigation and hazard vulnerability assessment must involve an attempt to reduce, or mitigate, the impact of the natural hazard on human communities. The responsibility to mitigate hazard impact falls primarily upon governments and closely connected non-government and private institutional agencies. In particular, it is most often local government that takes the responsibility for safeguarding its own communities, infrastructure and people. Hazard vulnerability of specific local communities is best assessed by the local government or council, which then faces the responsibility to translate that assessment into community education and infrastructural safeguards for hazard mitigation. This paper illustrates the process of local government engagement in hazard mitigation in Australia, through the Natural Disaster Risk Management Studies, as a first step towards natural disaster reduction.     

Implementing low-cost landslide risk reduction: a pilot study in unplanned housing areas of the Caribbean

Landslides pose a serious physical and environmental threat to vulnerable communities living in areas of unplanned housing on steep slopes in the Caribbean. Some of these communities have, in the past, had to be relocated, at costs of millions of dollars, because of major slides triggered by tropical storm rainfall. Even so, evidence shows that: (1) risk reduction is a marginal activity; (2) there has been minimal uptake of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments and (3) there is little on-the-ground delivery of construction for risk reduction. This article directly addresses these issues by developing a low-cost approach to the identification of the potential pore pressure changes that trigger such slides we seek to address these three commentaries directly. A complex 45–60° slope site in St Lucia, West Indies was selected as a pilot for a modelling approach that uses numerical models (FLAC and CHASM) to verify the need for surface water management to effectively reduce landslide risk. Following the model confirmation, a series of drains were designed and constructed at the site. Post-construction evidence indicates the methodology to be sound, in that the site was stable in subsequent 1-in-1 to 1-in-4 year rainfall events. A critical feature of the approach is that it is community-based from data acquisition through to community members participating in construction.     

浙江省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析

小流域山洪灾害具有突发性,预测预警难度较大.本文结合浙江省小流域山洪灾害防御的实践经验,研究提出了以水位反推法计算临界雨量,简单实用,具有较好的实践价值和推广意义.     

基于贡献权重叠加法的滑坡风险区划

贡献权重叠加法是对滑坡本底因子和承灾体因子在滑坡发育中的贡献率进行统计后,通过贡献率均值化、规一化处理,利用权重转换模型计算出每一个因子内部的权重——自权重和因子相互之间的权重——互权重。将滑坡因子、承灾体因子和两者的自权重、互权重分别相乘叠加,得到滑坡危险度和易损度区划结果,再将2项结果相乘得出滑坡风险区划结果。     

Spatial patterns and environmental risks of ringnet fishing along the Kenyan coast

Ringnet fishing began in the early 20th century and is practised worldwide, mainly to target nearshore pelagic species. The method was introduced to Kenya’s coastal waters by migrant fishers from Tanzania. However, the impacts of this fishing gear remain poorly assessed. We assessed the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort and its possible effects on ecosystem components, such as coral reefs, marine megafauna and marine protected areas, on the south coast of Kenya. We tracked 89 ringnet fishing trips made from December 2015 to January 2016 and used spatial multicriteria analysis to determine hotspots of possible environmental risks. The results showed that habitat type and bathymetric profile influenced the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort. Mixed seagrass and coral habitats had the highest concentration of the effort. Most of the habitats in the study area were moderately exposed to the impacts of the ringnet fishery. The study identifies high-risk areas that require spatial measures to minimise possible environmental risks of the gear both to habitats and to endangered sea turtles.