A stochastic method for the prediction of icebreaker bow extreme stresses

It is well established that the ship-ice interaction process is quite complex and associated ice loads on the icebreaker hull is a stochastic process. Obviously, novel accurate statistical methods and models should be developed and applied to estimate extreme bow stresses.This paper studies icebreaker bow stresses based on measured distribution of ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean on the way to and from the North Pole. Since the vessel route was carefully selected searching for easier ice conditions, the Arctic Ocean crossing was not a straight linear but a meandering path. Thus, the specific ship route data was biased with respect to general ice statistics in the region, but true with respect to the route specific ice data encountered by a ship navigating in that region. Therefore the route specific ice thickness data is directly needed for ship design and navigation analysis. It is assumed that captains are competent and knowledgeable, and therefore will select a route that provides the most favourable ice conditions.This paper contributes to study of the newest Chinese self-designed polar icebreaker, serving the purpose of enhancing icebreaker operational reliability. Finite Element Method software package ANSYS/LS-DYNA has been employed to simulate bow stress pattern for a particular icebreaker operating in the Arctic Ocean. Extreme bow stresses were estimated using Naess-Gaidai method. The latter is a first application of Naess-Gaidai method to a distribution with lower bound. Thus this paper aims at introducing an efficient method of estimating route-specific icebreaker extreme bow stresses.     

A Holistic Approach to Upwelling and Downwelling along the South-West Coast of India

An attempt has been made to develop a holistic understanding of upwelling and downwelling along the south-west coast of India. The main objective was to elucidate the roles of different forcings involved in the vertical motion along this coast. The south-west coast of India was characterized by upwelling during the south-west monsoon (May to September) and by downwelling during the north-east monsoon and winter (November to February). The average vertical velocity calculated along the south-west coast from the vertical shift of the 26?°C isotherm is 0.57?m/day during upwelling and 0.698?m/day during downwelling. It was concluded that upwelling along the south-west coast of India is driven by offshore Ekman transport due to the alongshore wind, Ekman pumping, horizontal divergence of currents and by the propagation of coastally trapped waves. Whereas downwelling along the coast is driven only by convergence of currents and the propagation of coastally trapped Kelvin waves. Along the west coast of India, the downwelling-favorable Kelvin waves come from the equator and upwelling-favorable waves come from the Gulf of Mannar region.     

西南印度洋中脊表层沉积物非碳酸盐组分的粒度特征及其地质意义

The carbonate-free fraction of 20 surface sediments collected from the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge(SWIR) was studied by grain size analysis and mineralogical analysis with X-ray powder diffraction(XRD),stereo microscopy and scanning electron microscopy(SEM). The characteristics of the carbonate-free fraction of the sediments were obtained, and related influential factors were discussed. The results show that the mean grain size of this fraction is in 1.96Φ–8.19Φ, with poorly sorting and unimodal, bimodal or irregular bimodal distribution patterns. Four grain size end members of the fraction are derived with the End Member Model method. The finest end member EM1 shows a significant contribution of terrigenous materials of the aeolian input and sediment carried by the bottom current. End member EM2 with medium size mainly reflects sediment of a siliceous bioclast origin. EM3 and EM4 are interpreted as representing the coarser volcanic materials related to bedrock weathering or volcanic activities. Multi-provenance is the dominant factor controlling the grain size pattern of the carbonate-free fraction of the sediments in that area. In addition, sediment transport processes such as the bottom current and wind are the minor factors that influence the grain size distribution of the carbonate-free fraction sediments.     

Upper ocean high resolution regional modeling of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

In this paper, effort is made to demonstrate the quality of high-resolution regional ocean circulation model in realistically simulating the circulation and variability properties of the northern Indian Ocean(10°S–25°N,45°–100°E) covering the Arabian Sea(AS) and Bay of Bengal(BoB). The model run using the open boundary conditions is carried out at 10 km horizontal resolution and highest vertical resolution of 2 m in the upper ocean.The surface and sub-surface structure of hydrographic variables(temperature and salinity) and currents is compared against the observations during 1998–2014(17 years). In particular, the seasonal variability of the sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and surface currents over the model domain is studied. The highresolution model's ability in correct estimation of the spatio-temporal mixed layer depth(MLD) variability of the AS and BoB is also shown. The lowest MLD values are observed during spring(March-April-May) and highest during winter(December-January-February) seasons. The maximum MLD in the AS(BoB) during December to February reaches 150 m (67 m). On the other hand, the minimum MLD in these regions during March-April-May becomes as low as 11–12 m. The influence of wind stress, net heat flux and freshwater flux on the seasonal variability of the MLD is discussed. The physical processes controlling the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature are investigated by carrying out mixed layer heat budget analysis. It is found that air-sea fluxes play a dominant role in the seasonal evolution of sea surface temperature of the northern Indian Ocean and the contribution of horizontal advection, vertical entrainment and diffusion processes is small. The upper ocean zonal and meridional volume transport across different sections in the AS and BoB is also computed. The seasonal variability of the transports is studied in the context of monsoonal currents.     

热带东印度洋SST对气候变暖和变冷的响应

The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature(SST) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the SST asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between SST and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the SST skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative SST skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-SST feedback.     

春季季风间期赤道东印度洋浮游植物光合生理特征

Phytoplankton physiologies are dynamic and have sensitive responses to the ambient environment. In this paper,we examine photosynthetic physiologies of phytoplankton communities with Phyto-PAM in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during the spring inter-monsoon. Environmental parameters were measured to investigate the coupling between phytoplankton photosynthetic physiologies and their habitats. During the cruise, the water column was highly stratified. The mixed layer extended to about 75 m and was characterized by high temperature(28°C) and low nutrient level. The F_v/F_m values and chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentrations were lower at the surface, as consequences of nutrient depletion and photo-inhibition. Subsurface Chl a maximum(SCM) occurred between 75 and 100 m, and had the highest F_v/F_m values. The formation of SCM was a balance between nutrient availability and light limitation. The SCM may contribute significantly to pelagic food web and primary production in the water column. Phytoplankton in different layers encountered different light, trophic and hydrographic dynamics and evolved distinct photosynthetic characteristics. Despite of co-limitation of nutrient limitation and photo-inhibition, phytoplankton in the surface layer showed their acclimation to high irradiance, had lower light utilization efficiencies(α: 0.061±0.032) and could exploit a wide range of light irradiance. Whereas, phytoplankton in the SCM layers presented the highest light utilization efficiencies(α:0.146±0.48), which guaranteed higher photosynthetic capacities under low light level. These results provide insights into phytoplankton photo-adaption strategies in this less explored region.     

全球大洋潮汐模式在北印度洋潮汐预报准确性的评估

为评估DTU10、TPXO8、GOT00.2和NAO.99b 4个全球大洋潮汐模式对北印度洋潮汐的预报能力,采用英国海洋资料中心提供的海区中部和沿岸站潮汐调和常数资料,检验了这些模式4个主要分潮(M_2、S_2、K_1、O_1)的准确度。它们的各分潮调和常数资料准确度都比较高,振幅绝均差的最大值仅5.61 cm,迟角绝均差的最大值仅9.13°。这些模式的调和常数给出潮波传播特征差别不大。基于这些模式提供的调和常数,分别建立了北印度洋4、8和16分潮潮汐预报模型,将预报结果与中国海事服务网提供的沿岸24个站潮汐表资料进行对比。各模式的8分潮(M_2、S_2、N_2、K_2、K_1、O_1、P_1、Q_1)潮汐预报模型均优于4分潮(M_2、S_2、K_1、O_1)潮汐预报模型,NAO.99b模式可以提供16分潮(M_2、S_2、N_2、K_2、K_1、O_1、P_1、Q_1、MU_2、NU_2、T_2、L_2、2N_2、J_1、M1、OO_1)潮汐预报模型,但是对预报结果改善不明显;在各模式中,GOT00.2模式的8分潮潮汐预报模型对北印度洋沿岸的预报效果最好,平均绝均差为14.97 cm。     

基于EEMD和ARIMA的海温预测模型研究

类型丰富、时空分辨率高的海洋探测数据,为信号分解和机器学习算法的应用提供了可能。本文针对如何建立有效的海温预测模型这一问题,使用高时空分辨率的海表温度(SST)融合产品,引入信号处理领域的集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和机器学习领域的自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)。首先利用最适于分解自然信号的EEMD方法,将海温数据分解成多个确定频率的序列;再利用ARIMA分别对各个频率的序列进行预测,最后将各个序列的预测结果进行组合。该方法在丰富数据的支撑下,比以往直接使用海温数据所建立的预测模型精度更高,为更好地进行海温预测提供了新方法。     

我国海洋功能区划的回顾性评价和新一轮编制建议

为完善我国海洋功能区划制度,提高海洋功能区划的编制和实施水平,促进其在我国海洋空间规划乃至国土空间规划中发挥应有作用,文章对我国现行海洋功能区划的实施情况进行回顾性评价,并对新一轮海洋功能区划的编制提出建议。研究结果表明:我国海洋功能区划法律地位高、管控范围广,现行海洋功能区划实施以来,通过建立定量目标管控体系、协调保障行业用海和保护海洋生态环境,对我国海洋经济和海洋生态环境的可持续发展做出巨大贡献;针对实施过程中存在的问题,新一轮海洋功能区划的编制应扩大海洋保护区的规模和种类、提高前瞻性和动态适应性、加强公众实质性参与以及完善技术体系。     

赤道东印度洋和孟加拉湾障碍层厚度的季节内和准半年变化

利用2002—2015年ARGO网格化的温度、盐度数据, 结合卫星资料揭示了赤道东印度洋和孟加拉湾障碍层厚度的季节内和准半年变化特征, 探讨了其变化机制。结果表明, 障碍层厚度变化的两个高值区域出现在赤道东印度洋和孟加拉湾北部。在赤道区域, 障碍层同时受到等温层和混合层变化的影响, 5—7月和11—1月受西风驱动, Wyrtki急流携带阿拉伯海的高盐水与表层的淡水形成盐度层结, 同时西风驱动的下沉Kelvin波加深了等温层, 混合层与等温层分离, 障碍层形成。在湾内, 充沛的降雨和径流带来的大量淡水产生很强的盐度层结, 混合层全年都非常浅, 障碍层季节内变化和准半年变化主要受等温层深度变化的影响。上述两个区域障碍层变化存在关联, 季节内和准半年周期的赤道纬向风驱动的波动过程是它们存在联系的根本原因。赤道东印度洋地区的西风(东风)强迫出向东传的下沉(上升)的Kelvin波, 在苏门答腊岛西岸转变为沿岸Kelvin波向北传到孟加拉湾的东边界和北边界, 并且在缅甸的伊洛瓦底江三角洲顶部(95°E, 16°N)激发出向西的Rossby波, 造成湾内等温层深度的正(负)异常, 波动传播的速度决定了湾内的变化过程滞后于赤道区域1~2个月。