谱模式SAMIL对南亚季风区大气季节内振荡向北传播的模拟

基于与NCEP资料结果的比较,研究了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的大气环流模式SAMIL对夏季南亚季风区季节内振荡（ISO）向北传播特征的模拟,并结合目前对ISO北传机制的理解对模拟结果进行了分析讨论。SAMIL在夏季南亚地区模拟出相当强度的季节内振荡的活动,并且模拟的ISO也表现出与NCEP资料相似的从赤道向北传播的特征,但传播的速度要慢于NCEP资料的结果。模拟的北传ISO具有与NCEP资料相似的结构特征,涡度和水汽场明显的呈经向不对称,涡度和水汽的正异常位于ISO对流的北面,最大的上升运动和最强的行星边界层辐合也位于ISO对流的北面。ISO 结构的经向不对称性正是模式模拟的ISO具有向北传播特征的原因;而模式对夏季南亚季风区高低层风场和行星边界层水汽的合理模拟起了关键的作用。同时,根据关于ISO北传机理的已有研究,模式的结果也表明南亚地区夏季风场的垂直结构是那里ISO向北传播的重要机制。     

The Asymmetry of Subsurface Temperature Anomalies Associated with ENSO in the Equatorial Western Pacific

The phenomenon of ENSO asymmetry has been recognized for many years, but most studies have focused on the asymmetry of surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Here, the authors investigate the temperature asymmetry associated with ENSO in the subsurface of the western Pacific through analysis of observations and numerical experiments with an ocean GCM. Both the observation and simulation exhibit significant ENSO asymmetry, characterized by negative temperature skewness in the equatorial western Pacific and positive skewness in the eastern Pacific. Heat budget analysis reveals that nonlinear dynamical heating results in the positive temperature asymmetry in the equatorial eastern Pacific, but tends to weaken the negative temperature asymmetry in the equatorial western Pacific. The climatological meridional current transports the temperature anomalies and corresponding negative asymmetry from the off-equator region to the equator in the subsurface of the western Pacific. Through a sensitivity experiment with reversed wind stress forcing, the authors suggest that the skewness of the wind stress anomalies does not contribute to the negative temperature asymmetry in the western Pacific in the first-order approximation, while the internal nonlinear dynamics does play a key role. The study suggests that, as a result of nonlinear processes, the oceanic responses to anomalous wind stress are nonlinear and asymmetric in the tropical Pacific.     

Prediction of permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the next 50 and 100 years

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)has the highestand largest permafrost coverage in the low-middlelatitudes all over the world.With the progress ofChina’s Western Development,human activities areincreasing significantly on the QTP.For instance,theQinghai-Tibet Railway project started in June2001iscurrently under construction,but permafrost problemwill be one of the critical factors for the engineeringconstruction.Frost heave and permafrost settlementmay destroy engineering construction[1,2]…     

重要信息系统的灾难恢复刍议

现代社会和生活越来越依赖于IT系统,信息系统遭到灾难和毁灭性打击将是社会公众的灾难和噩梦。美国“9.11”事件中纽约交易所成功实施了信息服务灾难恢复计划,使得全球对于“业务连续和灾难恢复”有了重新的认识。在我国,信息安全也日益成为政府部门管理层、企业和公众关注的重要话题。企业的弹性、系统的健壮性,信息系统的抗毁性与灾难恢复日益深入人心,风险管理越来越为业界所重视。地震部门在政府应急联动系统中具有重要作用,其本身的信息系统安全已逐步引起重视。     

An information-fusion method to identify pattern of spatial heterogeneity for improving the accuracy of estimation

While spatial autocorrelation is used in spatial sampling survey to improve the precision of the feature’s estimate of a certain population at area units, spatial heterogeneity as the stratification frame in survey also often have a considerable effect upon the precision. Under the context of increasingly enriched spatiotemporal data, this paper suggests an information-fusion method to identify pattern of spatial heterogeneity, which can be used as an informative stratification for improving the estimation accuracy. Data mining is major analysis components in our method: multivariate statistics, association analysis, decision tree and rough set are used in data filter, identification of contributing factors, and examination of relationship; classification and clustering are used to identify pattern of spatial heterogeneity using the auxiliary variables relevant to the goal and thus to stratify the samples. These methods are illustrated and examined in the case study of the cultivable land survey in Shandong Province in China. Different from many stratification schemes which just uses the goal variable to stratify which is too simplified, information from multiple sources can be fused to identify pattern of spatial heterogeneity, thus stratifying samples at geographical units as an informative polygon map, and thereby to increase the precision of estimates in sampling survey, as demonstrated in our case research.     

地震动有效幅值不对称性特征研究

利用国内外287次5级以上的实际地震记录,研究了地震动有效幅值的不对称性特征及其规律。分别用有效幅值不对称比和有效幅值作用次数不对称比来描述地震动的不对称性,统计结果具有规律性,并提出了其估计公式。结果表明:地震动有效幅值不对称性和有效幅值作用次数不对称性特征明显,幅值不对称比的平均值不受震级影响,但与截断比呈非线性递增关系,截断比小于1/3时不对称比在1.07～1.20之间,截断比大于1/3时不对称比在1.13～1.96之间;有效幅值作用次数不对称比的平均值不受震级影响,但与截断比呈非线性递增关系,截断比小于1/3时作用次数不对称比在1.04～1.31之间变化,截断比大于1/3时作用次数不对称比在1.22～1.80之间。     

Effects of supplemental viscous damping on seismic response of asymmetric-plan systems

Coupling between lateral and torsional motions may lead to much larger edge deformations in asymmetric-plan systems compared to systems with a symmetric plan. Supplemental viscous damping has been found to be effective in reducing deformations in the symmetric-plan system. This investigation examined how supplemental damping affects the edge deformations in asymmetric-plan systems. First, the parameters that characterize supplemental viscous damping and its plan-wise distribution were identified, and then the effects of these parameters on edge deformations were investigated. It was found that supplemental damping reduces edge deformations and that reductions by a factor of up three are feasible with proper selection of system parameters. Furthermore, viscous damping may be used to reduce edge deformations in asymmetric-plan systems to levels equal to or smaller than those in the corresponding symmetric-plan system. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic demand of plan-asymmetric structures: a revisit

In view of the recognition of the importance of the interdependent behavior of strength and stiffness of walltype structural elements,the seismic demand of plan-asymmetric systems is revisited.Useful strength distribution strategies,i.e.,’Center of Strength-Center of Mass(CV-CM) coinciding’ and ’Balanced Center of Strength-Center of Resistance(CVCR)’ are adopted.Design charts for the seismic demand of classical uni-directionally and bi-directionally asymmetric systems are developed in a simple unified format.A conceptual framework is also outlined to conveniently apply the design charts.Illustrations are included to explain the use of the current recommendations in practical design.The study also highlights the relative performance of ’CV-CM coinciding’ and ’Balanced CV-CR’ criteria.     

GIS技术在洪湖环境演变研究中的应用

本文运用GIS技术,探索了洪湖环境的近期变化及其机理,以空间的、定量的形式,展示了与修建隔堤、分割湖区、围湖垦殖及水位控制等人为活动因素相联系的湖泊环境变化效应和过程,分析了湖中挺水植物分布的动态变化与趋协。这项工作进一步表明了地理信息系统方法在湖泊环境变化的监测、评价和研究中具有独特的功效和实用价值。     

信息增益在地震趋势估计中的应用

从熵中信息增益的定义出发，将地震中的能量和频度作为一个整体考虑，研究了全球１９００－１９９２斫Ｍ≥６．０地震的信息增益。结果表明，强震前有信息增益减小的特点。信息增益方法的引入，为利用中小地震进入地震跟踪预报提供了一个新途径。