Occurrence of heavy rainfall around the confluence line in monsoon disturbances and its importance in causing floods

It is well known that heavy rainfall occurs in the southwestern sector of the monsoon depressions due to strong convergence in that sector. By examining the rainfall distribution associated with the monsoon disturbances (lows and depressions) in one of the central Indian river basins, ‘Godavari’, the author found that when the disturbance-centre is away from the basin, heavy rainfall may also occur in the basin area close to the confluence line and cause severe floods in the river. The confluence line is the zone of convergence between the northeasterlies to the west of the disturbance centre and the monsoon westerlies. This study further reveals the importance of the position and movement of the confluence line with respect to the basin, on which the intensity and the raising period of the resulting flood depend.     

欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号

本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据.结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500 hPa高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区.另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区).公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500 hPa高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向.对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30°N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30°N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30°N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区.南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期明显西移/南退.总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些.这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础.     

一次引发南亚大暴雨的季风低压结构、涡度与水汽收支分析

对2003年夏季风期间,7月24～28日印度季风槽内季风低压发展西移与阿拉伯海中尺度低压合并引发南亚的一次大暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,探讨了印度季风槽、季风低压的三维结构以及低压区域的涡度、水汽收支.揭示和确认了一些事实:1)印度季风槽区对流层中下层存在明显的风场切变,槽区高温高湿,为单一性质的热带气团,低层为对流不稳定,槽区对应正涡度区;2)季风低压是一较深厚系统.动力结构为低层正涡度,高层负涡度,低层辐合,高层辐散.其西移速度约500 km·d.季风低压北侧整层为深厚的东风,南侧在对流层中低层为西风,在高层为东风.热力结构在低层(700～800 hPa)间存在弱冷区,而中高层几乎为暖心结构.低压对应高湿区,低压中心西侧整层为相对湿度大值区;3)季风低压的发展过程中,低层的辐合场制造正涡度,促进低压的发展;4)低压区水汽强烈辐合,西边界输入量最大.在此研究工作的基础上,作者还比较了夏季风期间南亚印度季风槽和东亚梅雨锋系统的异同.     

The simulation of the Asian summer monsoon by general circulation models

Summary The monsoon simulations of four general circulation models are illustrated. Additional results from the Meteorological Office model showing factors that are important in determining its simulation are presented. The large-scale flow patterns of all the models reproduce the large-scale flow fairly realistically, but more detailed characteristics and, in particular, the rainfall, are poorly represented.     

Satellite-tracked drifting buoy observations in the south equatorial current in the Indian Ocean

Three satellite-tracked drifting buoys released in the south equatorial current in the Indian Ocean followed the path of the current moving westward approximately zonally in the vicinity of 10 S latitude. On nearing the east coast of Africa two buoys moved north and the third moved south. Over the open sea regime the buoys moved with a speed of approximately 30 cm/s at an angle of about 35° to the left of the wind. The overall tendencies seen in the buoy drift are similar to those observed elsewhere in the world oceans.     

On the role of the Asian monsoon in the angular momentum and kinetic energy balances of the tropics

The balance conditions of relative angular momentum and time-mean kinetic energy and their annual variations are studied for the Northern Hemisphere tropical belt. The belt is divided into two roughly equal size parts, the monsoon and the extramonsoon regions. The data used consist of all available daily rawinsonde reports from the world areological network for the two 5-year periods 1958–63 and 1968–73.In winter, the trade winds in the monsoon and extramonsoon regions are both sources of westerly relative angular momentum for the middle latitude circulation. However, it is found that the angular momentum gained in the extramonsoon region of the Tropics is mostly destroyed by a net southward flow of mass in that region, and becomes regenerated in the monsoon region by a net northward flow of mass there. This excess of angular momentum together with the angular momentum picked up locally in the monsoon region is almost all exported across its northern boundary. It is further found that in winter the Tropics are also an important source of mean kinetic energy for middle latitudes. Again almost all export of kinetic energy was found to take place across the northern boundary of the monsoon sector. Most of this energy must be generated through the pressure gradient term inside the monsoon region itself, the transformation from transient eddy kinetic energy being very small. The proper evaluation of the pressure gradient appears to be the main stumbling block in the present study, preventing us from estimating the generation and thereby, as a residual, the frictional dissipation in the two regions.In summer, the extramonsoon region remains a source of angular momentum, but the monsoon region with its surface westerlies acts as a sink, leading to a sharp reduction (and even a midsummer reversal) of the export into middle latitudes. Also the export of mean kinetic energy almost vanishes in summer, except for a small southward transfer across the equator. The calculations for two 5-year periods give very similar estimates and thereby show the reliability of the results.Parts of this paper were presented at the International Symposium on Monsoons, March 7–12, 1977 in New Delhi, India.     

Role of barotropic,baroclinic and combined barotropic-baroclinic instability for the growth of monsoon depressions and mid-tropospheric cyclones

A detailed barotropic, baroclinic and combined barotropic-baroclinic stability analysis has been carried out with mean monsoon zonal currents over western India, eastern India and S.E. Asia. The lower and middle tropospheric zonal wind profiles over western India are barotropically unstable. The structure and growth rate of these modes agree well with the observed features of the midtropospheric cyclones. Similar profiles over eastern India and S.E. Asia, however, are barotropically stable. This is attributed to weak horizontal shear, inherent to these profiles. The upper tropospheric profiles, on the other hand, are barotropically unstable throughout the whole region. The features of these unstable modes agree with those of observed easterly waves. The baroclinic and combined barotropic-baroclinic stability analyses show that the baroclinic effects are not important in tropics. Though the barotropic instability of the mean zonal current seems to be res ponsible for the initial growth of the mid-tropospheric cyclones, neither barotropic nor baroclinic instability of the mean zonal current seem to explain the observed features of the monsoon depressions.     

Review of the Tropical Gyre in the Indian Ocean with Its Impact on Heat and Salt Transport and Regional Climate Modes

Due to the IO monsoon impact, the tropical IO circulation has significant seasonal variation, especially in the northern IO. However, in mean-state, a relatively closed current loop is established by eastward current along the equator and westward current south of equator, which is regarded as Tropical Gyre in the Indian Ocean. Based on this circulation system, relevant studies were reviewed. Its impact on heat and salt transports and regional climate changes were discussed.     

Link between convection and meridional gradient of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal

We use daily satellite estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during 1998–2005 to show that onset of convection over the central Bay of Bengal (88–92°E, 14–18°N) during the core summer monsoon (mid-May to September) is linked to the meridional gradient of SST in the bay. The SST gradient was computed between two boxes in the northern (88–92°E, 18–22°N) and southern (82–88°E, 4–8°N) bay; the latter is the area of the cold tongue in the bay linked to the Summer Monsoon Current. Convection over central bay followed the SST difference between the northern and southern bay (ΔT) exceeding 0.75°C in 28 cases. There was no instance of ΔT exceeding this threshold without a burst in convection. There were, however, five instances of convection occurring without this SST gradient. Long rainfall events (events lasting more than a week) were associated with an SST event (ΔT ≥ 0.75°C); rainfall events tended to be short when not associated with an SST event. The SST gradient was important for the onset of convection, but not for its persistence: convection often persisted for several days even after the SST gradient weakened. The lag between ΔT exceeding 0.75°C and the onset of convection was 0–18 days, but the lag histogram peaked at one week. In 75% of the 28 cases, convection occurred within a week of ΔT exceeding the threshold of 0.75°C. The northern bay SST, T _N , contributed more to ΔT, but it was a weaker criterion for convection than the SST gradient. A sensitivity analysis showed that the corresponding threshold for T _N was 29°C. We hypothesise that the excess heating (∼1°C above the threshold for deep convection) required in the northern bay to trigger convection is because this excess in SST is what is required to establish the critical SST gradient.