Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.     

印度洋偶极子对大气环流和气候的影响

赤道印度洋SST的分析研究证实了偶极子型振荡的存在，它在9-11月较强而在1-4月较弱。若以海温西高东低为偶极子振荡正位相，以海温东高西低为负位相，则一般是正位相时振荡要强于负位相。印度洋偶极子也存在年际（主要周期为4－5年）和年代际（主要周期为25-30年）变化。分析研究表明，印度洋偶极子对亚洲季风活动有明显影响，因为亚洲地区对流层低层的风场，南亚高压和西太平洋副高强度都与印度洋偶极子有关。另外，印度洋偶极子还对北美和南印度洋（包括澳大利亚和南美）地区的大气环流和气流有影响。     

Influence of southern oscillation index on the variability and predictability of Indian monsoon. A reappraisal

The relationship between the monsoon rainfall throughout all India, northwest India and peninsular India as well as the onset dates of the monsoon and two indices of southern oscillation (SOI), namely Isla de Pascua minus Darwin (I-D) and Tahiti minus Darwin (T-D) pressure anomaly have been studied for different periods. The study indicates that the monsoon rainfall shows a strong and significant direct relationship with SOI for the concurrent, succeeding autumn and succeeding winter seasons. The magnitude of the direct correlation coefficient for the SOI using (I-D) is enhanced over all India and peninsular India if the above seasons happen to be associated with an easterly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) at 50 mb. The result indicates that the strength of the monsoon plays an important role in the following southern oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean. The premonsoon tendency of the SOI anomaly spring minus winter SOI shows a significant positive correlation with monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India. The absolute value of the positive correlation coefficient becomes highly enhanced over all India, northwest India as well as peninsular India if the 6-month period from December to March is associated with the westerly phase of the QBO. Hence, the premonsoon SOI tendency parameter can be a useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall especially if it happens to be associated with the westerly QBO. Significant negative association is also found between the anomaly of monsoon onset dates and SOI of the previous spring season, the absolute value being higher for SOI (T-D) than for SOI (I-D). The negative correlation coefficient becomes enhanced if the previous springs are associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. It shows that the previous spring SOI has some predictive value for the onset date of Indian monsoon, a positive SOI followed by an early onset of monsoon, andvice versa, especially if it is associated with a westerly phase of the QBO.     

Groundwater storage change detection from in situ and GRACE-based estimates in major river basins across India

ABSTRACT

India has been the subject of many recent groundwater studies due to the rapid depletion of groundwater in large parts of the country. However, few if any of these studies have examined groundwater storage conditions in all of India’s river basins individually. Herein we assess groundwater storage changes in all 22 of India’s major river basins using in situ data from 3420 observation locations for the period 2003–2014. One-month and 12-month standardized precipitation index measures (SPI-1 and SPI-12) indicate fluctuations in the long-term pattern. The Ganges and Brahmaputra basins experienced long-term decreasing trends in precipitation in both 1961–2014 and the study period, 2003–2014. Indeterminate or increasing precipitation trends occurred in other basins. Satellite-based and in situ groundwater storage time series exhibited similar patterns, with increases in most of the basins. However, diminishing groundwater storage (at rates of >0.4 km³/year) was revealed in the Ganges-Brahmaputra River Basin based on in situ observations, which is particularly important due to its agricultural productivity.     

热带气旋生成指数对印度洋热带气旋频数变化的适用性研究

本文利用ERA5 1979-2019年逐月大气再分析资料计算南北印度洋热带气旋生成指数，并和IBTrACS观测数据进行比较，探讨用热带气旋生成指数研究南北印度洋热带气旋变化特征的适用性.研究发现热带气旋生成指数能较好地刻画南北印度洋热带气旋的空间分布特征、北印度洋热带气旋个数月变化的双峰结构，以及南印度洋比北印度洋热带气旋发生概率高等特征.最新的IBTrACS v4.0观测资料显示，40年来北印度洋热带气旋每年总生成个数平均每10年增加1.3个，频数的增加主要来源于热带低压和热带风暴，而南印度洋热带气旋每年总生成个数每10年减少2.8个.热带气旋生成指数能很好地描述北印度洋热带气旋生成个数的上升趋势，但对南印度洋热带气旋生成个数趋势的刻画与观测不一致，可能原因需要进一步深入研究.     

印度季风的年际变化与高原夏季旱涝

根据NCEP／NCAR再分析资料和海表面温度距平资料,分析了西藏高原夏季降水5个多、少雨年春、夏季印度洋850hPa、200hPa合成风场和合成海温场,发现多、少雨年前期与同期印度洋高、低空风场和海温场均存在明显差异,主要表现为高原夏季降水偏多(少)年印度夏季风偏强(弱),在850hPa合成风场上印度半岛维持西(东)风距平,西印度洋—东非沿岸为南(北)风距平,夏季阿拉伯海区和孟加拉湾出现反气旋(气旋)距平环流;200hPa合成风场上印度半岛维持东(西)风距平,南亚高压偏强(弱),索马里沿岸为南(北)风距平。印度夏季风异常与夏季印度洋海温距平的纬向分布型有密切联系。当夏季海温场出现西冷(暖)东暖(冷)的分布型时,季风偏强(弱),高原降水普遍偏多(少)。相关分析指出,索马里赤道海区的风场异常与高原夏季降水的关系最为密切,在此基础上我们定义了一个索马里急流越赤道气流指数,用它识别高原夏季旱涝的能力较之目前普遍使用的印度季风指数有了明显的提高。     

青藏高原的金属矿产

青藏高原地处印度板块与亚欧板块的衔接部位,长期处于岗瓦纳大陆边缘,大约在65 Ma时印度板块与亚欧板块发生碰撞,对过去构造格局和金属矿产等改造,同时产生新的构造格局和金属矿产,因此青藏高原的金属矿产别具一格。本文讨论青藏高原的铬、铁、铜钼、铅锌、锡、金、锑、铯等优势矿产。     

印度大陆板片前缘撕裂与分段俯冲：来自冈底斯新生代火山-岩浆作用证据

青藏高原碰撞造山带不仅呈现南北不均一性,而且显示东西分段性。以横贯高原腹地的NNE向负磁异常带为界,将冈底斯分为三段。在宽约300km的负磁异常带为代表的中段,近SN向的裂谷和正断层系统、重要地震和现代热水活动、古新世林子宗火山岩系和中新世超钾质火山岩系、以及日喀则弧前盆地集中发育,伴有斑岩型Cu-Mo和成因独特的Au-Cu矿化;在85°E以西的西段,主要发育强烈逆冲推覆系、同碰撞期花岗岩和中新世钾质-超钾质火山岩系,伴有造山型Au矿化;而在90°E以东的东段,主要发育走滑断裂系、同碰撞期花岗岩和中新世埃达克质斑岩,伴有斑岩型Cu-Mo矿化。古新世林子宗火山岩的精细定年和地球化学特征揭示,印度大陆板片向北的俯冲-汇聚至少在50Ma前没有表现出明显的时间差异性。然而,中新世钾质-超钾质岩和大规模花岗岩基的时空分布和地球化学特征反映,印度大陆板片前缘可能发生撕裂,并发生分段式差异俯冲,西段(85°E以西)俯冲规模大,距离远,东段(90°E以东)俯冲规模小,可能未跨过雅江缝合带。沿着负磁异常带两侧的边界裂谷带,高SiO_2煌斑岩和念青唐古拉花岗岩基及相伴钾质火山岩的发育,揭示来源于软流圈地幔的岩浆和高热流穿过板片撕裂带并沿耦合上覆的裂谷带上涌,前者侵位和喷发,后者诱发地壳熔融。90°E与85°E之间的俯冲板片可能由于撕裂、断离和破碎,因而导致斜跨高原腹地的大面积通道式负磁异常带。     

新疆晚古生代大陆边缘成矿系统与成矿区带初步探讨

新疆地处中亚成矿域的中段，古生代大陆边缘增生明显、构造和岩浆活动强烈、矿产资源丰富。古生代大陆边缘成矿作用主要集中在两个时期，即以阿尔泰南缘为主的早中泥盆世和以天山为主的早石炭世。本文在综合研究及与境外对比的基础上，按照北疆地区晚古生代大陆边缘的构造动力学和成矿特征，将研究区大陆边缘成矿系统划分为：活动大陆边缘海相火山岩-盆地流体成矿系统，活动大陆边缘火山岛弧-岩浆活动成矿系统和被动大陆边缘沉积盆地-热水活动成矿系统三类。同时对形成于大陆边缘的成矿区带进行划分，主要包括：阿勒泰南缘晚古生代活动大陆边缘块状硫化物成矿带；阿尔泰南缘-东准噶尔活动大陆边缘卡拉先格尔岛弧斑岩铜金成矿带；东天山晚古生代活动大陆边缘铜钼锌成矿区带；西准噶尔洋内弧斑岩-浅成低温热液铜金成矿区带；西天山（伊犁地块）活动大陆边缘金铜成矿区带；塔里木板块被动大陆边缘沉积型铅锌成矿带。本文认为大陆增生与成矿作用的关系是矿床学和成矿系统研究的重要内容，成矿区带是成矿系统发生成矿作用的响应，而成矿系统是成矿区带形成的本质。