中国海岸带分布规律及其海部要素变化检测

在海岸带图测绘完成后,海部要素的变化是导致海岸带图使用价值降低的重要因素.根据我国海岸的组成物质将其归纳为淤泥质海岸、沙砾质海岸、基岩海岸、红树海岸和珊瑚海岸,并归纳总结了每一种海岸的空间分布规律.分析了影响海岸线、干出滩以及近海水深等海部要素变化的主要因素,海岸要素变化的因素和变化规律,进而提出了海部要素实质性变化的检测统计方法,对提高海岸带图测绘效率、缩短成图周期、确定更新周期和制定更新方案都具有重要的意义.     

卫星重力梯度测量数据的粗差探测

分别讨论了阈值法、Dixon检验法和小波算法应用于卫星重力梯度数据粗差探测的效果。为了克服这3种单一粗差探测方法的不足,提出了卫星重力梯度数据的粗差探测组合方案,即联合Dixon检验和小波算法,以及联合Dixon检验、阈值法和小波算法的组合方案。模拟结果表明,两种组合方案均能有效改善粗差探测的效果。     

对地铁结构监测基准点稳定性的研究

本文在研究大量变形监测技术与监测成果的基础上,注意到基准点的稳定性,它直接影响到监测成果的可靠性和客观性,尤其当基准点的稳定性超过两倍测量中误差时,监测成果不仅不能客观反映变形体的变形量,甚至出现较大偏差或错误,从而导致人们对变形体的变形趋势和安全性分析失准。因此,本文对监测基准点稳定性进行深入研究,并通过应用实例提出监测基准点的布设方法和稳定性分析方法。     

近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征(英文)

Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series (AM) and peak over threshold series (POT) are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme precipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Generalized Pareto distribution (GP) and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.     

A model test system with a dynamic load device for geotechnical engineering in cold regions

A model test system with a dynamic load device for geotechnical engineering in cold regions is presented. This system consists of a model test tank, a refrigeration device and temperature controller, a dynamic load device, together with sensors and data loggers for detecting stress, deformation, and temperature changes. The system can accommodate soil blocks up to 3 m in length, 2.5 m in width, and 1 m in height. The lowest temperature provided by the refrigeration device is -20 °C. The maximum load provided by the dynamic load device is 100 kN and the vibration frequency of the dynamic load can range from 0.1 to 10 Hz. A number of waveforms, such as sine waves, rectangular waves, triangle waves, and other user-defined waves can be generated by the dynamic load device controller.     

中国出境旅游与国际服务贸易关系分析

出境旅游是国际服务贸易的重要组成部分,是世界经济全球化的响应。出境旅游与国际服务贸易关系分析是制定出境旅游政策的基础之一。根据1985~2011年中国出境旅游和国际服务贸易时间序列的相关数据,采用计量经济学分析方法,系统探讨了出境旅游与国际服务贸易的关系。得出结论:①出境旅游与国际服务贸易之间存在正相关关系;②出境旅游与国际服务贸易存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系;③出境旅游与国际服务贸易存在短期波动回归长期均衡关系;④出境旅游是国际服务贸易出口的Granger原因,但不是国际服务贸易进口的Granger原因,国际服务贸易进出口均是出境旅游的Granger原因。     

Economic Notes

Abstract

This article introduces the development and validation of the spatial thinking ability test (STAT). The STAT consists of sixteen multiple-choice questions of eight types. The STAT was validated by administering it to a sample of 532 junior high, high school, and university students. Factor analysis using principal components extraction was applied to identify underlying spatial thinking components and to evaluate the construct validity of the STAT. Spatial components identified through factor analysis only partly coincided with spatial concepts used to develop the questions that compose the STAT and with the components of spatial thinking hypothesized by other researchers.     

1949—2010年西北太平洋热带气旋特征分析

文章分析了1949—2010年发生在西北太平洋上的热带气旋的空间分布特征。并利用趋势分析、小波分析和滑动t检验方法分析了热带气旋的年际变化特征、季节变化特征、周期特征和突变特征。结果表明:西北太平洋热带气旋多生成于5~25°N,110~170°E的海域。频数的年际变化存在三个阶段,月际变化明显,集中出现在7—10月。整个时域上10~15a的波动明显,并经历了三次突变过程。62a间强热带风暴生成最多,台风次之,热带风暴最少。热带气旋强度的年变化不明显。热带气旋强度越强,频数最大值的月份出现越晚。亚洲季风和西太平洋副高对热带气旋的产生起很大的作用。     

酸雨观测异常数据的试验分析和处理方法

本文就酸雨观测仪器在测量操作中出现的异常状态进行了试验和分析,且对校错电极常数、测温系统故障、"后测K值"3种异常状态, 结合酸雨观测业务实践进行了试验、分析和讨论。推导出校错电极常数的电导率订正公式;制定了仪器测温系统故障的应急观测方案;指出"后测K值"会导致数据严重失真, 测量中必须严格遵循 "先测K值"规程;并建议在《酸雨观测业务规范》修订时, 增加本文有关的分析和处理方法。     

光合有效辐射和紫外辐射测量标准的性能验证

2010年中国气象局建立了气象行业光合有效辐射和紫外辐射测量标准.标准建成后,标准器的各项技术性能指标必须经过实际测试来验证.通过对光谱辐射计的波长精密度、准确度、杂散光、重复性、稳定性、探头余弦响应等参数的测试验证,以及对整个标准的测量误差来源及不确定度的分析和评定,得以验证紫外辐射测量标准DTMc300双单色仪光谱辐射计满足世界气象组织(WMO)相关规定的技术指标要求.