Predicting demand for 311 non-emergency municipal services: An adaptive space-time kernel approach

Many cities in the United States and Canada offer a 311 helpline to their residents for submitting requests for non-emergency municipal services. By dialing 311, urban residents can report a range of public issues that require governmental attention, including potholes, graffito, sanitation complaints, and tree debris. The demand for these municipal services fluctuates greatly with time and location, which poses multiple challenges to effective deployment of limited resources. To address these challenges, this study uses a locally adaptive space-time kernel approach to model 311 requests as an inhomogeneous Poisson process and presents an analytical framework to generate predictions of 311 demand in space and time. The predictions can be used to optimally allocate resources and staff, reduce response time, and allow long-term dynamic planning. We use a bivariate spatial kernel to identify the spatial structure and weigh each kernel by corresponding past observations to capture the temporal dynamics. Short-term serial dependency and weekly temporality are modeled through the temporal weights, which are adaptive to local community areas. We also transform the computation-intensive parameter estimation procedure to a low dimensional optimization problem by fitting to the autocorrelation function of historical requests. The presented method is demonstrated and validated with sanitation service requests in Chicago. The results indicate that it performs better than common industry practice and conventional spatial models with a comparable computational cost.     

One Million Years tephra record at IODP Sites U1436 and U1437: Insights into explosive volcanism from the Japan and Izu arcs

The 1 Myr tephra records of IODP (International Ocean Discovery Program) Holes U1436A and U1437B in the Izu‐Bonin fore‐ and reararc were investigated in order to assess provenance and eruptive volumes, respectively. In total, 304 tephra samples were examined and 260 primary tephra layers were identified. Tephra provenance was determined by means of major and trace element compositions of glass shards and distinguished between Japan and Izu‐Bonin arc origin of the tephra layers. A total of 33 marine tephra compositions were correlated to the Japan arc and 227 to the Izu arc. Twenty marine tephra layers were correlated between the two drilling sites. Additionally, we defined eleven correlations of marine tephra deposits to major widespread Japanese eruptions; from the 1.05 Ma Shishimuta‐Pink Tephra to the 30 ka Aira‐Tn Tephra, both from Kyushu Island. These eruptions provide independent time markers within the sediment record and six correlations were used to date tephra layers from Japan in Hole U1436A to establish an alternative age model for this hole. Furthermore, the minimum distal tephra volumes of all detected events were calculated, which enabled the comparison of the tephra volumes that derived from the Japan and the Izu‐Bonin arcs. For some of the major Japanese eruptions these are the first volume estimations that also include distal deposits. All of the Japanese tephras derived from events with eruption magnitude M_v ≥ 5.6 and three of the investigated eruptions reach magnitudes M_v ≥ 7. Volcanic events of the Izu‐Bonin arc have mostly eruption magnitudes M_v ≤ 5.     

The earliest stage of Izu rear‐arc volcanism revealed by drilling at Site U1437, International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 350

The International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 350 drilled between two Izu rear‐arc seamount chains at Site U1437 and recovered the first complete succession of rear‐arc rocks. The drilling reached 1806.5 m below seafloor. In situ hyaloclastites, which had erupted before the rear‐arc seamounts came into existence at this site, were recovered in the deepest part of the hole (～15–16 Ma). Here it is found that the composition of the oldest rocks recovered does not have rear‐arc seamount chain geochemical signatures, but instead shows affinities with volcanic front or some of the extensional zone basalts between the present volcanic front and the rear‐arc seamount chains. It is suggested that following the opening of the Shikoku back‐arc Basin, Site U1437 was a volcanic front or a rifting zone just behind the volcanic front, and was followed at ~ 9 Ma by the start of rear‐arc seamount chains volcanism. This geochemical change records variations in the subduction components with time, which might have followed eastward moving of hot fingers in the mantle wedge and deepening of the subducting slab below Site U1437 after the cessation of Shikoku back‐arc Basin opening.     

Radiolarian biostratigraphy in the Southern Bering Sea since Pliocene

Detailed radiolarian biostratigraphy in the Plio-Pleistocene was analyzed by using samples from IODP Site U1340 that was drilled to a core depth of 604 m in the southern Bering Sea. A total of 227 species belonging to 102 genera were identified. Based on the distributions of the radiolarian index species at Site U1340, five radiolarian zones since the Pliocene were established in the southern Bering Sea for the first time, and 25 radiolarian bioevents were recognized. Their ages were estimated on the basis of the age-depth plot that was constructed by the synthetical datum of the effective biostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic events. The radiolarian zones at Site U1340 were systematically compared with those in its adjacent regions since the late Early Pliocene, which further improved and interpreted the biostratigraphic datum as well as their correlations in the middle-high latitude of the North Pacific. In addition, the comparative results of radiolarian zones show that Botryostrobus aquilonaris Zone emended in this paper is equivalent to the upper part of the same zone defined by Hays, 1970, and Druppatractus irregularis-Dorydruppa bensoni Zone as well as Spongodiscus sp. Zone, newly proposed in this paper, are well correlated with Cycladophora sakaii Zone and Stylatractus universus Zone in the subarctic North Pacific, respectively.     

IODP计划的新进展

综合大洋钻探计划(IODP)经过5年(2003-2008年)的过渡运行,在2009年真正实现了"多平台"钻探格局,美国"决心号"、日本"地球号"和欧洲联合体"特定任务平台"同时执行特定海区和地质条件的钻探航次.随着澳大利亚-新西兰联合体和印度的加入,IODP"大家庭"已有7个成员单位共24个国家,犬洋钻探的国际合作渐入"佳境".IODP钻探航次在2009年的重大进展包括:"地球号"在IODP第319航次首次实施立管钻探并成功取芯;经全面改造升级后的"决心号"首航赤道太平洋成功获取53 Ma以来古赤道太平洋连续沉积物断面;"特定任务平台"成功实施推迟2年多的新泽西陆架IODP第313航次等.我国科学家在近年来参加IODP航次、提交航次建议书、积极参加国际学术会议等方面明显活跃,大大提高我国科学家的国际学术竞争力,并在海洋科学的相关领域进入了国际前沿.     

Actively forming Kuroko-type volcanic-hosted massive sulfide (VHMS) mineralization at Iheya North,Okinawa Trough,Japan

Modern seafloor hydrothermal systems provide important insights into the formation and discovery of ancient volcanic-hosted massive sulfide (VHMS) deposits. In 2010, Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 331 drilled five sites in the Iheya North hydrothermal field in the middle Okinawa Trough back-arc basin, Japan. Hydrothermal alteration and sulfide mineralization is hosted in a geologically complex, mixed sequence of coarse pumiceous volcaniclastic and fine hemipelagic sediments, overlying a dacitic to rhyolitic volcanic substrate. At site C0016, located adjacent to the foot of the actively venting North Big Chimney massive sulfide mound, massive sphalerite-(pyrite-chalcopyrite ± galena)-rich sulfides were intersected (to 30.2% Zn, 12.3% Pb, 2.68% Cu, 33.1 ppm Ag and 0.07 ppm Au) that strongly resemble the black ore of the Miocene-age Kuroko deposits of Japan. Sulfide mineralization shows clear evidence of formation through a combination of surface detrital and subsurface chemical processes, with at least some sphalerite precipitating into void space in the rock. Volcanic rocks beneath massive sulfides exhibit quartz-muscovite/illite and quartz-Mg-chlorite alteration reminiscent of VHMS proximal footwall alteration associated with Kuroko-type deposits, characterized by increasing MgO, Fe/Zn and Cu/Zn with depth. Recovered felsic footwall rocks are of FII to FIII affinity with well-developed negative Eu anomalies, consistent with VHMS-hosting felsic rocks in Phanerozoic ensialic arc/back-arc settings worldwide.Site C0013, ∼100 m east of North Big Chimney, represents a likely location of recent high temperature discharge, preserved as surficial coarse-grained sulfidic sediments (43.2% Zn, 4.4% Pb, 5.4% Cu, 42 ppm Ag and 0.02 ppm Au) containing high concentrations of As, Cd, Mo, Sb, and W. Near surface hydrothermal alteration is dominated by kaolinite and muscovite with locally abundant native sulfur, indicative of acidic hydrothermal fluids. Alteration grades to Mg-chlorite dominated assemblages at depths of >5 mbsf (metres below sea floor). Late coarse-grained anhydrite veining overprints earlier alteration and is interpreted to have precipitated from down welling seawater as hydrothermal activity waned. At site C0014, ∼350 m farther east, hydrothermal assemblages are characterized by illite/montmorillonite, with Mg-chlorite present at depths below ∼30 mbsf. Recovered lithologies from distal, recharge site C0017 are unaltered, with low MgO, Fe₂O₃ and base metal concentrations.Mineralization and alteration assemblages are consistent with the Iheya North system representing a modern analogue for Kuroko-type VHMS mineralization. Fluid flow is focussed laterally along pumiceous volcaniclastic strata (compartmentalized between impermeable hemipelagic sediments), and vertically along faults. The abundance of Fe-poor sphalerite and Mg-rich chlorite (clinochlore/penninite) is consistent with the lower Fe budget, temperature and higher oxidation state of felsic volcanic-hosted hydrothermal systems worldwide compared to Mid Ocean Ridge black smoker systems.     

DRIFTS快速测定北大西洋沉积物方解石含量及其气候指示意义——以U1308站位为例

探讨了利用漫反射红外傅立叶变换光谱(DRIFTS)来快速定量测定深海沉积物中方解石含量.以北大西洋深海沉积物为例,对标样进行DRIFTS测量,选取碳酸钙713 cm-1特征峰(方解石)与石英800 cm-1特征峰面积比值作为回归参数,同时用气量法测试标样的方解石含量,然后分析DRIFTS特征峰强度与方解石含量的相关性,建立校准方程并检验.结果显示,DRIFTS方法对沉积物方解石含量测量准确,尤其对低方解石含量的样品比较敏感,具有较低的检出限和较高测量精度.应用该校准方程,对北大西洋综合大洋钻探计划(IODP)U1308站位近1 Ma来沉积物进行测定.其方解石含量呈典型的大西洋型旋回,反映了中布容事件(MBE)以及中更新世革命(MPE)时期方解石含量变化较大;在响应全球气候变化趋势的同时,还体现了全球碳储库变化对于北半球冰盖增长的触动机制,大洋内部深水循环影响方解石的保存.     

Evolution of animal multicellularity stimulated by dissolved organic carbon in early Ediacaran ocean: DOXAM hypothesis

Oxygenation of the ocean is presumed to be an important factor stimulating the evolution of multicellular animals. The appearance of the Ediacaran‐type biota (ca 575 Ma) was assigned to the aftermath of the Gaskiers glaciation (ca 580 Ma), when substantial oceanic oxygenation is believed to have started. However, several lines of evidence reveal that at least sponges evolved before this oxygenation. For understanding the first stage of animal evolution, we propose the hypothesis that Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Stimulated the evolution for Animal Multicellularity (DOXAM). Recent geochemical studies of the Ediacaran sedimentary sequences have indicated that a substantial DOC mass was developed in the stratified ocean after the Marinoan glaciation (655–635 Ma), and this was supported by the inorganic and organic carbon isotope profiles of the Doushantuo Formation in South China. The DOC mass was an oxygen consumer in the water column; however, it could have provided a food source for filter‐feeding animals such as sponges and cnidarians, and established a primitive food‐web. Such an ecological structure is recognized in modern deep‐sea coral mounds. Results from the integrated ocean drilling program (IODP) Expedition 307 for a mound in northeastern Atlantic suggested that organic carbon suspended around the density boundary in the water column is the key feature to feed the heterotrophic deep‐sea coral community. Our hypothesis is consistent with the fact that the two most primitive animal phyla (Porifera and Cnidaria) are filter feeders. The evolution of filter feeding ecosystems removed the DOC mass and may have contributed to ocean oxygenation in the terminal Neoproterozoic when animal evolution passed into the second stage, with the appearance of bilaterians.     

新世纪的大洋钻探

较为详细地介绍了大洋钻探计划（ODP）的科学目标，研究主题及其重要的科学意义，大洋钻探计划是当今举世瞩目的国际性海洋科学研究计划，其前身深海钻探计划（DSDP）孕育了20世纪70年代的地学革命,为“新全球构造理论”－－板块构造学说的发展提供了关键性的证据。自1985年开始的ODP成功地探查了地质历史演化中塑造我们这颗星球并决定了其现今环境状态的各种地质过程，揭示了控制地壳形成，海洋化学，海洋的深部和表面循环的各种地质以及生物圈和环境物理化学间相互作用的复杂性，DSDP和ODP的成功为实施新世纪海洋钻探－综合海洋钻探项目（IODP）的目标铺平了道路，IODP是在21世纪初即将实施的新的大洋钻探计划。     

综合大洋钻探计划311航次沉积物中自生碳酸盐岩碳、氧稳定同位素特征

为了探索水合物背景下沉积物中自生矿物响应,对采自综合大洋钻探计划（IODP）311航次沉积物中自生碳酸盐岩颗粒进行了矿物组成、形貌特征和碳、氧稳定同位素特征等研究。X光粉晶衍射（XRD）和扫描电镜（SEM）结果显示碳酸盐岩颗粒的主要矿物成分是铁白云石和方解石,呈多孔状结核和不规则状集合体产出。碳酸盐岩颗粒的碳稳定同位素δ¹³C_PDB低至-41.50‰,证实其碳源源自甲烷,其成因与甲烷厌氧氧化过程有关,印证了研究区存在海底甲烷渗漏现象,是甲烷水合物赋存区重要的识别标志之一。碳酸盐岩颗粒的氧稳定同位素δ¹⁸O_PDB总体上随着沉积物深度增加而减小,可能指示沉积物的背景温度由下而上（从早到晚）逐渐降低。研究结果提供了现代海洋天然气水合物背景下沉积物中自生碳酸盐岩的碳、氧稳定同位素记录,对于寻找我国海域天然气水合物资源,探索地史时期古海洋沉积物中类似的甲烷事件记录具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。