三层模式背风波的理论研究

文中建立了一个背风波的三层理论模式 ;当三层Scorer参数在中层最大、高层次之、下层最小的情况下 ,利用该模式求得了背风波的理论波长及扰动的解析解 ,并对一个典型的个例计算了其背风波波长 ,并在此基础上分析了背风波波长对上、中、下三层Scorer参数变化的敏感性 ,结果表明波长对中层Scorer参数的变化比较敏感 ,对下层Scorer参数的大小和符号都不敏感 ,但在计算背风波波长时不能忽略下层的Scorer参数。     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

20世纪南极菲尔德斯半岛毛皮海豹食谱比例变化的同位素混合模型比较分析

稳定同位素比值分析已成功用于示踪动物的食物来源研究,近年来已发展了多个同位素混合模型用于计算混合物中多来源物质的组成比例。本文以过去百年来南极菲尔德斯半岛南极毛皮海豹(Arctocephalus gazella)毛发的C、N同位素数据为基础,运用同位素混合模型中的欧几里得距离法、线性模型和贝叶斯模型进行计算、分析和比较,得到毛皮海豹食谱中南极磷虾(Euphausia superb)、南极电灯鱼(Electrona antarctica)和尼氏裸灯鱼(Gymnoscopelus nicholsi)所占比例随时间的变化趋势。各模型计算得出的结果可分为两组,分别是欧几里得距离法公式(1)和(2)的结果,表现为近百年来毛皮海豹食谱中Euphausia superb比例与其毛发稳定N同位素比值呈同步上升的趋势;第二组为欧几里得距离法公式(3)、线性模型和贝叶斯模型的结果,Euphausia superb比例与毛皮海豹毛稳定N同位素比值呈反相关关系。综合对比研究区域气候、海冰环境变化背景和已有的南极磷虾种群密度调查资料分析,第二组模型结果与实际情况较为相符,可用于讨论食物比例的时间变化趋势。近百年来,菲尔德斯半岛毛皮海豹食谱中Euphausia superb的比例显著下降,很可能是由于区域气候快速变暖和海冰的消退造成的。本文的计算结果指示西南极半岛气候变暖已显著影响到区域海洋食物链变化。     

A Zonal Pathway for NADW in the South Atlantic

Several large deployments of neutrally buoyant floats took place within the Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) of the South Atlantic in the 1990s and a number of hydrographic sections were occupied as well. Here we use the spatially and temporally averaged velocities measured by these floats, combined with the hydrographic section data and various estimates of regional current transports from moored current meter arrays, to determine the circulation of the three major subthermocline water masses in a zonal strip across the South Atlantic between the latitudes of 19°S and 30°S. We concentrate on this region because the historical literature suggests that it is where the Deep Western Boundary Current containing NADW bifurcates. In support of this notion, we find that a net of about 5 Sv. of the 15–20 Sv that crosses 19°S does continue zonally eastward at least as far as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Once across the ridge it takes a circuit to the north along the ridge flanks before returning to the south in the eastern half of the Angola Basin. The data suggest that the NADW then continues on into the Indian Ocean. This scheme is discussed in the context of distributions of dissolved oxygen, silicate and salinity. In spite of the many float-years of data that were collected in the region a surprising result is that their impact on the computed solutions is quite modest. Although the focus is on the NADW we also discuss the circulation for the AAIW and AABW layers.     

南海北部陆坡深水区沉积物输送模式探讨

南海北部陆坡深水区沉积物输送模式复杂多样,研究发现主要有碎屑流、浊流、砂质碎屑流、碳酸盐岩重力流、块体搬运、河流搬运、深水水道搬运7种类型,它们共同影响着南海北部陆坡沉积物类型和储层分布。其中(砂质)碎屑流沉积、块体搬运沉积、河流供给、深水水道砂是南海北部深水储层的主要成因,而纯粹的浊积岩在该地区发育不广泛。珠江口盆地的深水储层受到河流的供给和后期流体改造的影响,并且存在碳酸盐岩重力流沉积物薄层,证明该地区水动力条件较强;琼东南盆地深水储层分布受到了碎屑流控制和深水水道的影响,相对浅水区来看可能存在分选较好、干净的砂体储层,具有良好的勘探潜力。     

沉井下沉阻力离心模型试验研究

如何正确计算沉井的下沉阻力一直是沉井结构设计的难点,为了更加深入地研究沉井下沉阻力及其分布规律,通过离心机模型试验分别对4组不同埋深工况下的沉井进行了下沉模拟,对沉井侧壁土压力、刃脚斜面土压力、刃脚踏面土压力、沉井内外土面沉降进行了分析。研究结果表明：侧壁土压力随入土深度的增加呈先增大后减小的趋势,可采用分段函数形式对其大小及分布形式进行简化计算;刃脚斜面土压力呈三次多项式分布形式;随着刃脚入土深度的增加,刃脚斜面与踏面土阻力均显著增大,而单位投影宽度刃脚斜面与踏面土阻力比基本保持不变;沉井下沉会导致井外土面沉降,井内紧靠沉井内壁的土面沉降,离沉井内壁有一定距离的土面隆起。上述试验与分析成果可为理论研究与工程设计提供参考。     

利用BP神经网络技术建立自贡地区地震动地形效应模型及其在汶川地震中的效验

地形效应是地震学、地震工程学和工程地震学中非常重要的研究课题.地震震后调查发现: 地形起伏变化引起了更严重的地震灾害, 地震仪器也记录到复杂的三维地形对地震动具有放大效应.关于地形激发的地震动效应问题, 目前仍处于定性研究阶段, 得到了一些定性的结论: 如地形效应表现为与地形坡度相关、与山脊和山谷相关、与山形坡面形态相关、与山体高宽比相关、与地形变化的尺度相关等等.这些定性结论没能给出影响地形效应的主要因素, 如何预测地形效应仍是难题.本文通过谱元数值模拟方法, 计算了自贡地区的地震动地形效应的放大系数, 同时引入BP神经网络技术, 揭示了地形放大系数可以用不同尺度地形上的变化来表述, 即可以用地形高程、地形变化梯度及其高阶变化梯度来表示.据此为参量, 文中建立了地形效应BP神经网络的预测模型, 并将该预测模型的结果与自贡地形台阵在汶川地震中的主震记录获得的地形放大系数结果进行了对比, 给出了预测结果与实际结果的差异范围, 讨论了造成差异的成因, 该论文提出的研究方法为更全面的研究地形效应提供了重要的研究思路.

     

降雨下边坡开挖支护离心模型试验

为研究降雨下高速公路高边坡在开挖及运营过程中的变形规律及稳定性,以柳南公路改扩建工程某处典型高边坡为原型,利用大型土工离心机及自主研发降雨装置,开展12组不同开挖-支护时序边坡模型试验,通过对边坡从变形至破坏全过程监测,分析不同支护时序条件对边坡稳定性的影响。结果表明:实时支护能有效抑制边坡在水平和竖向的变形,在边坡开挖至第1级和第6级后,坡顶水平变形分别降低33.9%和30.4%,竖向变形降低54%和11.6%;实时支护对维持降雨下边坡稳定状态非常有利,边坡开挖至第2、4、6级后遭遇降雨,其稳定系数降低了10.1%、5.4%、6.5%;相同降雨量下,无实时支护边坡的稳定系数要比实时支护至少降低50%,说明了实时支护对降雨下边坡稳定性的意义巨大。      

可调滞回模型的磁流变阻尼器及其试验

本文在现在磁流变阴尼器性能研究的基础上，提出了可调滞回模型的磁流变阻尼器及其试验方法，并进行理论、试验及算例分析。首先，根据恒定电流下磁流变阻尼器的阻尼力滞力特性，利用磁流变材料特性的电流（即磁场）可控特点，建立了变电流下的阻尼力滞回模型；其次，在中通过电路板控制外加电流与装置变形间的函数关系，实现了变电流调节的阻尼力滞回模型；最后，将磁流变阻尼器与橡胶隔震装置结合，形成智能磁流变隔夺装置，并对一个单自由度隔震结构进行了数值仿真分析。     

From the geological to the numerical model in the analysis of gravity-induced slope deformations: An example from the Central Apennines (Italy)

This paper presents the findings from a study on gravity-induced slope deformations along the northern slope of Mt. Nuria (Rieti-Italy). The slope extends from the village of Pendenza to the San Vittorino plain and hosts the Peschiera River springs, i.e. the most important springs of the Central Apennines (average discharge: about 18 m³/s).

Detailed geological-geomorphological and geomechanical surveys, supported by a site stress-strain monitoring system and laboratory tests, led us to define the main evolutionary features of the studied phenomena. Based on the collected data, a “geological-evolutionary model” was developed with a view to identifying a spatio-temporal correlation between relief forms, jointing of the rock mass and its stress conditions. The geological-evolutionary model was expected to improve numerical simulations and to test our assumptions.

The numerical model also allowed us to simulate changes in the stress-strain conditions of the rock mass and correlate them with jointing, seepage, as well as with site-detected and site-monitored forms and deformations. In particular, significant relations between seepage, tensile stresses within the rock mass, karst solution and collapse of cavities were identified.