Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

万全断裂的几何结构和活动特征1?

本文根据实地调查和探测资料对万全断裂的几何结构和构造活动进行分析与研究,结果表明：该断裂是洋河盆地北缘断裂带的组成断裂之一,由南、北两段斜列组成,呈北东-北北东走向展布,为正断层,长约15km;断裂在第四纪期间持续活动,控制着附近地区的构造演化和地貌发育：西北侧中生代地层抬升,形成低山丘陵;东南侧地块下降,接受第四纪堆积,构成山间盆地;晚更新世以来单条断层的平均垂直活动速率大于0.03—0.3mm/a。     

从重力场变化看攀枝花6．1级地震与宁蒗、盐源交界5．7级地震的关系

本文利用攀枝花和西昌地区2002—2012年流动重力观测数据,作出重力场动态图像和部分重力点值时序变化图像。通过分析重力场变化,研究2008年攀枝花6．1级地震与2012年宁蒗、盐源交界5．7级地震之间的关系,得出攀枝花6．1级地震使攀西地区构造活动加强,较强的构造活动使2012年宁蒗、盐源交界5．7级地震孕育和发生以及地震孕震过程和临震前重力场变化与攀枝花6．1级地震前的变化具有相似性的结论。     

Danish Regional Development During Economic Crisis

Illeris, Sven: Danish Regional Development During Economic Crisis. Geografisk Tidsskrift 84: 53–62. Copenhagen, January 1984.

The paper deals with the distribution of population and economic activities during the 1980–83 economic crisis. The decentralisation of the 1970's was weakened, but there was no return to the concentration of former decades. Important reasons seem to be the decline in house-building, and the structural developments (in 1980 crisis in the primary and secondary sectors which are over-represented in peripheral regions and small settlements).     

1976-2007年青海省刚察县土地沙漠化驱动力分析

土地沙漠化是青海湖沿岸地区最严重的生态环境问题之一.本文选取青海湖北岸的刚察气象站19582007年的气象数据和刚察县1976-2007年的社会经济资料,对近30年来刚察县土地沙漠化的驱动力进行主成分分析.结果表明,1976-2007年,刚察县沙漠化土地面积的增加是自然因素和人为因素综合作用的结果,尤以年平均风速和耕地面积变量的贡献率最大.刚察县沙漠化土地的扩张在不同时间段的影响因素不同.1976 1987年,沙漠化面积的扩张是气温逐渐回暖、降水回升的过程中人为因素影响的结果;1987 1995年,沙漠化土地增加了17.28 km2,沙漠化土地的扩张是自然因素和人为因素叠加的结果,以自然因素为主导,人为因素起加剧的效果;1995 2007年,在暖湿、风速降低的气候环境下,沙漠化土地的扩张是人为因素作用的的结果.沙漠化扩张过程是高寒脆弱不稳定的生态系统在气候干湿波动、人类活动与沙漠化土地之间复杂的相互反馈作用下形成的.     

大气CO2浓度变化与全球气候变化关系初步探讨

2007年IPCC公布的第四次评估报告AR4指出：过去50a观测到的地球平均温度升高很可能（90％以上）是由人类活动引起的,其中主要是人类活动引起的温室气体排放的增加．而地质气候记录证明,早在人类排放能够影响大气以前的CO2浓度变化均不同程度地滞后于气温变化．地质时期CO2浓度的波动是跟随气候变化而变化,是被大气温度驱动的结果,而非相反的CO,驱动温度变化．将现在全球变暖完全归因于人类排放CO2的增加,无法解释1940-1978年的降温事件．通过更长尺度的对比研究可以发现,现在气候是处于全新世变干变冷的大趋势之中,即使现在全球略有变暖,也只是处于变干变冷大趋势中的次级变暖波动．将近代全球气候变暖片面夸大归因于人类活动排放温室气体,而忽略了自然因素的贡献,其依据显得缺乏科学说服力,其做法不免有些令人担忧．     

2010—2020及影响因素分析年青岛海滩剖面稳定性

海滩的稳定性及其演变是砂质海滩研究的重要内容。在全球砂质海滩普遍遭受侵蚀的背景下,分析部分稳定海滩的特征和原因可以为海滩维护和科学管理提供重要参考。本文基于近 11 年 （2010—2020 年） 青岛第一、第三和石老人海水浴场共 8 条典型剖面的实地监测高程数据,对海滩滩肩宽度和单宽体积进行计算对比,研究表明,除石老人海水浴场一个剖面变化较大外,其他剖面的滩肩宽度只变化了 0~14 m,是 11 年前的 0%~23.3%;单宽体积变化了 8.5~46.5 m3,是 11 年前的1.0%~9.4%;海滩剖面垂向扰动范围一般在 30~60 cm 范围内。海滩存在局部小尺度淤积或侵蚀,剖面形态总体较为稳定。海平面变化、台风和风暴潮等自然因素是海岸轻微侵蚀或调整的重要影响因素,但对海滩的优化管理 （包括定期监测海滩、适度展开养护、制定完善的管理政策和加强执行力度等人为因素） 可以应对这些海滩变化,并且已成为近年来该研究海滩保持稳定的关键因素。     

Quantification of surface water and groundwater salinity sources in irrigated lowland area of North China Plain

Seasonally variation of water salinity is observed worldwide, the mechanisms of water salinity are not well understood due to natural factors and anthropogenic activities. Quantification water salinity source are challenging since complex influence factors, especially in agricultural regions irrigated with multi-water sources. In the lowland area of North China Plain, transferred water, brackish shallow groundwater and fresh deep groundwater were combinative utilized to relieve prominent contradictions between regional water shortages and grain production. In this study, influence factors of surface water (canal water, pond water) and shallow groundwater salinity were identified and quantified through statistical analysis, deuterium excess, and ionic relationship. Salinity of canal water and pond water increased in dry season and decreased in rainy season, while salinity of shallow groundwater decreased in dry season after water transfer and rainy season, but increased in dry season. Evaporation and mineral dissolution were main factors for surface water salinity in dry season, with mineral dissolution was the more important one. The contribution ratio of evaporation and mineral dissolution for canal salinity were 4.4 and 49.1% in dry season after water transfer, 7.1 and 34.4% in dry season, and that for pond water salinity were 12.4 and 18.3% in dry season, respectively. Precipitation and surface runoff were main factors for surface water salinity in rainy season. The contribution of surface runoff for canal water and pond water salinity were 66.1 and 45.8%, respectively. Salinity of canal water and shallow groundwater was temporary decreased by water transfer. Domestic sewage from rural areas had larger influence than agricultural activities for salinity increase of pond water and shallow groundwater. Mineral dissolution was the main contributor for shallow groundwater salinity, with contribution ratio larger than 60% in different periods. This study demonstrated and quantified salinity source of surface water and shallow groundwater and may deepen our understanding of water management under multi-water resources utilization.     

Low temperature alteration of magmatic Ni-Cu-PGE sulfides as a source for hydrothermal Ni and PGE ores: A quantitative approach using automated mineralogy

Magmatic Ni-Cu-PGE sulfide assemblages are almost ubiquitously comprised of pyrrhotite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite(-pyrite). Sulfide alteration is common during syn- or post-magmatic fluid interaction, usually replacing sulfides with amphiboles or serpentine. However, some are altered to a low temperature (<200 °C) hydrothermal assemblage of pyrite-millerite-chalcopyrite (PMC). An example is the Ni-Cu-PGE mineralisation in the Grasvally-Norite-Pyroxenite-Anorthosite (GNPA) Member, northern Bushveld Complex, which displays a continuum of mineralogical styles formed through progressive alteration: Style 1 primary pyrrhotite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite; which is altered to Style 2 pyrrhotite-pyrite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite; Style 3 pyrite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite; Style 4 pyrite-pentlandite-millerite-chalcopyrite; and Style 5 pyrite-millerite-chalcopyrite-cubanite. Modelling using CHILLER confirms this mineralogical sequence is thermodynamically possible at ∼200 °C. Quantitative characterisation using automated Energy-Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy mapping alongside in situ laser ablation analyses determined mineral proportions, major and trace element concentrations and deportments in each style. The early loss of pyrrhotite removes over half of the bulk Fe and S during the initial stages of PMC alteration, increasing Cu, Ni and PGE tenors of the remaining sulfides significantly. As water–rock interaction progresses, pyrrhotite is replaced by pyrite and pentlandite by millerite, with concurrent losses in Fe, S and Ni. Copper is lost throughout the alteration, and is most pronounced in the more advanced stages. The fluids responsible were most likely acidic and oxidised, with metals mobilised as chloride complexes. Using Rh as an immobile normalising element, the overall mass loss in the most altered samples is calculated to be up to 90%, consistent with textural relationships that indicate 40–90% volume loss from Styles 2–5, with sulfides replaced by secondary silicates, including phlogopite, quartz, chlorite, pyroxenes and minor amphiboles. Magnetite is not a significant alteration product and thus Fe is mobilised, or incorporated into silicates. Most trace elements present in the magmatic sulfide (the IPGE, Rh and Bi) remain in the sulfide phases, and are effectively transferred to pyrite during PMC alteration, except Pd, which remains in pentlandite, and is liberated from the sulfide assemblage when pentlandite disappears. Selenium tenors increase slightly with alteration, demonstrating that alteration decreases S/Se ratios. The significant mobilisation of Ni, Cu and Pd during PMC alteration produces fluids enriched in these elements that may represent a metal source for a number of enigmatic hydrothermal Ni deposits such as Avebury, Enterprise and Talvivaara, whose metal sources remain speculative. The PMC alteration of the GNPA Member may be specifically a source for the nearby Waterberg hydrothermal Pt deposit. Furthermore, this study has implications not only for magmatic ore deposits, but also for the general implications of sulfide transformation and metal transfer in ore systems in general.     

埕古1井校测活动造成的影响分析

本文深入研究和分析了埕古1井2005年12月至2009年7月校测活动前后的数字化和模拟观测数据,探讨了校测活动对该井各测项的影响。