HYDROPOWER RESOURCES IN UPPER YANGTZE

ＨＹＤＲＯＰＯＷＥＲＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＳＩＮＵＰＰＥＲＹＡＮＧＴＺＥＣＨＥＮＪｉｓｈｅｎｇ（ＤｉｒｅｃｔｏｒＥｍｅｒｉｔｕｓ，ＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒＳｃｉｅｎｔｉｆｉｃＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ（ＹＲＳＲＩ），２３ＨｕａｎｇｐｕＲｏａｄ，Ｗｕ...     

Stability analysis on Jinjia dam hydropower project in Chongqing City

The stability analysis is one of the chief problems at hydropower stations. The Jinjia Hydropower Station is a significant project in Southwest China. The paper adopts the rigidity limited equilibrium theory and evaluated stability of the slope body, which will provide the evidences for further detail design.     

Dams and population displacement on China’s Upper Mekong River: Implications for social capital and social–ecological resilience

China is home to nearly half of the world’s 50,000 large dams, which provide irrigation, flood protection, and hydroelectricity. Most of these projects involve substantial population displacement, which can disrupt social capital, the webs of interdependence and support that community members maintain with one another through relationships of trust and reciprocity. We use new empirical evidence to examine the association between dam-induced displacement and social capital in China and interpret our findings in the context of social–ecological resilience theory. Our focus is on agricultural households on the Upper Mekong River, where four large hydropower dams have been constructed over the past twenty years.Our broad finding is that resettlement is associated with diminished social capital, as measured by two key indicators: inter-household exchange of financial resources, and inter-household exchange of agricultural labor. These effects differ across the four dam sites in the study based on local economic conditions and changes in resettlement policy. We find that population resettlement is associated with markedly lower levels of agricultural labor exchange. In an economically under-developed setting, this reduces the depth and breadth of social support that agricultural households rely on to produce crops for subsistence and income. This in turn diminishes social–ecological resilience because social capital is a key factor that helps agricultural or resource-dependent communities manage risk and adapt to changes and stressors.We consider the policy implications of our findings in the context of scientific and industry efforts to minimize social harm, promote economic vitality, and improve the sustainability of hydropower as a form of renewable energy.     

Multi-causal pathways of public opposition to dam projects in Asia: A fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA)

Scholars overwhelmingly adopt the case study method when analyzing causal conditions inducing anti-dam-protests. We have carried out the first medium-N-study on this topic analyzing public opposition to 12 dam projects in Asia. For this purpose, we employ a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) which is based on a thorough review of scholarly writings and press reports on the dam projects at question as well as an online survey and semi-structured interviews. We identify two causal recipes sufficient for the emergence of significant anti-dam-protests. First, lacking social safeguards in combination with the presence of political opportunity structures and higher levels of development are sufficient for significant anti-dam-protests to emerge. Second, lacking social safeguards in combination with rampant corruption and environmental risk induce these protests. Current scholarly literature particuarly emphasizes political opportunity structures and development as causal conditions inducing significant protests. Our findings build on this literature to highlight the importance of project-specific conditions.     

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonization efforts for Ecuador’s power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimization model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories.

Key policy insights

• Ecuador’s hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region.

• Given Ecuador’s seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed.

• Ecuador’s NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables.

     

钢锚墩在锦屏一级水电站地下厂房的运用

锦屏一级水电站地下厂房地应力高,分层开挖完成后随着地应力的释放及重新分布,局部岩体出现压碎、层状劈裂破坏,围岩松弛深度及变位不断加深、加大。为了尽快实现锚索锚固支护效应以确保地下厂房洞室群围岩稳定和工程安全,施工时将部分原设计现浇混凝土锚墩调整为钢锚墩进行施工,取得了较好的质量、进度效果。主要介绍了钢锚墩的施工工艺、质量控制要点及其与混凝土锚墩的工效对比分析。     

世界水能资源的开发利用

第二次世界大战后，世界水能资源开发利用进展很快，水电站规模增大，开发领域拓宽；梯级水电开发日趋普及，跨流域水电开发增多；抽水蓄能电站迅速发展；小水电开发和老水电站的改造、扩建得到重视：水能资源开发对环境的影响受到普遍关注。     

Role of slope stability in cumulative impact assessment of hydropower development: North Cascades, Washington

Two environmental assessments considered the potential cumulative environmental impacts resulting from the development of eight proposed hydropower projects in the Nooksack River Basin and 11 proposed projects in the Skagit River Basin, North Cascades, Washington, respectively. While not identified as a target resource, slope stability and the alteration of sediment supply to creeks and river mainstems significantly affect other resources. The slope stability assessment emphasized the potential for cumulative impacts under disturbed conditions (e.g., road construction and timber harvesting) and a landslide-induced pipeline rupture scenario. In the case of smallscale slides, the sluicing action of ruptured pipeline water on the fresh landslide scarp was found to be capable of eroding significantly more material than the original landslide. For large-scale landslides, sluiced material was found to be a small increment of the original landslide. These results predicted that hypothetical accidental pipeline rupture by small-scale landslides may result in potential cumulative impacts for 12 of the 19 projects with pending license applications in both river basins.     

遗传算法在水电站优化调度中的应用

将遗传算法用于求解水电站优化调度问题。与经典优化算法不同的特点在于,遗传算法是从多个初始点开始寻优,沿多路径搜索实现全局或准全局最优。计算过程中不需要存储状态或决策变量离散点,大大减少了计算机内存,不必求导运算,编程简单,是一种有效的自适应随机搜索算法。     

Modelling climate change impacts on hydropower lake inflows and braided rivers in a mountain basin

This study models climate change impacts on the natural flow regime of braided rivers and inflows to hydropower lakes in a New Zealand mountain basin. Flow metrics include the magnitude, frequency, timing and duration of unaltered flows. The TopNet hydrological model was used to simulate impacts in the Upper Waitaki Basin of the South Island for the 1990s, 2040s and 2090s. An average emissions scenario and results from 12 global circulation models were used as input. Indicators of hydrological alteration and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to evaluate flow differences. Modelled total inflows increase over time for all lakes, with most increases in winter/early spring and small decreases in summer/autumn. High flows generally increase, while low flows decrease. Although these changes may benefit hydropower and floodplain ecology, they may increase flood risk in winter and spring and drought risk in summer and autumn, causing additional challenges managing hydropower operations.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae