CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR THE ONSET OF ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON AS REVEALED BY HIRS-Tb12 AND DROUGHT AND FLOODS IN EASTERN CHINA

As shown in comparison and study of the HIRS-Tb12 data and conventional data, temperature, humidity and vertical motion are structured differently in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which are well depicted with the HIRS-Tb12 data. When high pressures rapidly decrease over the regions of South China Sea and Arabian Sea with the HIRS-Tb12 less than 200 W/m2, monsoons will set off in the South China Sea, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. From a year of significant drought to one of significant floods, the trend of evolution is significantly different in the downdraft areas of the subtropical highs between the two hemispheres.     

Drought in Bulgaria and atmospheric synoptic conditions over Europe

Drought in Bulgaria is analyzed from the multiple viewpoints of statistical occurrence, spatial patterns, and synoptic conditions. A new index of drought, the SD (spatial-dryness) index, characterizes drought by both intensity and spatial extent. The occurrence of the SD index is analyzed using global gridded data sets. Examination of transitional probabilities of multiple months and years with drought occurrence suggests persistence is sufficiently frequent to be important for climate-related environmental planning. Finally, it is shown that specific seasonal synoptic patterns are associated with wet and dry conditions in Bulgaria. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Water wars in the Middle East: a looming threat

This paper explains how hydropolitical dynamics and spatial variables almost triggered a water war between Israel and Lebanon because the latter was building a pump on the Wazzani Spring, a tributary of the Jordan River. The convergence of a regional drought, history of violent confrontations between the two riparians, distrust, varying development needs and territorial disputes almost culminated in a war between these east Mediterranean neighbours. While most international water disputes in the Middle East will be resolved peacefully, some are likely to trigger violent confrontations threatening political stability in the Middle East in the next few decades.     

吉林省水旱灾害规律分析

水旱灾害在自然灾害中占有重大比重，对人类危害极大，正确认识水旱灾害发生的规律与特点，对防治与减轻自然灾害有着重要作用。对吉林省水旱灾害的危害及其发生规律和特点进行了分析。     

全国干旱遥感监测运行系统的研制

该研究利用1981－1994的NOAA AVHRR 8km分辨率的NDVI资料，以及对应时段全国102个固定农业观测站的20cm深的土壤湿度资料，建立了植被状态指数（VCI）与土壤湿度之间的统计模型，由土壤湿度旱情等级标准来换算出每旬用VCI进行干旱监测的旱情等级标准，以确定出全国的旬旱情分布状况，在此工作的基础上建成了“全国干旱遥感则运行系统”，该运行系统使遥感手段监测全国干旱成为可能，将能提供每年3－9月每旬全国的干旱监测情况，为国家有关决策部门提供干旱减灾的决策依据。     

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.     

BP神经网络模型在重庆伏旱预测中的应用研究

采用气象要素定义伏旱指数，利用小波分析等方法分析重庆地区伏旱变化特征，最后采用BP神经网络模型对伏旱进行预测试验，结果表明，重庆伏旱变化具有明显的阶段性特征，而基于BP神经网络模型的伏旱预测模型预测效果良好，可以应用于实际预测。     

我国能源消费结构变化与气候特征

文章利用多项式法将气候耗能量从能源消费总量中分离出来，用统计分析的方法探讨了气候耗能量与气候因子之间的关系及其变化。研究表明：从20世纪50年代到80年代初期，旱涝灾害是影响我国气候耗能量的主要气候因子，它们之间存在显著的线性相关关系，随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，旱涝灾害对气候耗能量的影响逐渐减弱，气温对气候耗能量的影响日趋显著，目前正处于过渡时期。     

江西省夏季干旱特征分析

根据1951～2000年江西省降雨量、降雨日数、降雨变率等资料,统计和分析江西省夏季干旱期间降雨量、降雨日数、降雨变率等变化与地理分布客观特征.文章还对江西干旱标准、干旱指数与伏、秋干旱时空分布客观特征等进行分析.分析结果为江西人工增雨抗旱作业提供依据.     

江淮流域夏季严重旱涝与大气季节内振荡

利用NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料和中国气象局国家气象中心提供的中国台站降水资料,分析研究了江淮流域大范围严重旱涝的20-70天大气季节内振荡(ISO)特征。结果表明,对应江淮流域严重涝年,200hPa青藏高原北部存在ISO气旋性环流,青藏高原南部存在ISO反气旋性环流;大气ISO流型在对流层中低层850hPa主要是我国长江以南、南海和西太平洋地区为大气ISO反气旋性环流,我国长江以北到日本地区的大气ISO气旋性环流,我国江淮流域位于这两个ISO涡旋西侧偏南气流和偏北气流的交汇处;旱年反之。利用向量经验正交展开方法得到,上述大气ISO环流型分别是旱涝年大气ISO流型的第一模态,并且涝年大气ISO流型的振幅强,旱年振幅弱。进一步分析揭示,严重洪涝(干旱)年分别对应对流层中上层江淮流域及其以北的中高纬度地区有强(弱)的大气ISO活动。中高纬度地区的大气ISO在严重洪涝年向南传播,与低纬度向北传播的大气ISO在江淮流域汇合;而在严重干旱年,虽然大气ISO可向北传播,但向南的传播却很不明显。