Earthquake Triggering along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone of Western Sichuan,China

Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes.     

Landslide incidence zonation in the Rio Mendoza valley,Mendoza Province,Argentina

This paper presents a landslide incidence zonation map showing the percentage of underlying material involved in mass‐movement processes in the Rio Mendoza valley, Argentina. The landslide incidence zonation map was derived from an inventory map of landslides and reveals that many areas of the Rio Mendoza valley are implicated in this kind of process. A correlation has been found between the occurrence of landslides, earthquakes, and rainfall. The relation between lithology and landslides is clear: areas covered by friable sedimentary and volcanic rocks of the Choiyoi Group are prone to debris ?ows and complex landslides. The slope map has been ranked and a general relation between slope and type of event is shown. Falls commonly develop in high‐angle slopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wetter or colder during the Last Glacial Maximum? Revisiting the pluvial lake question in southwestern North America

Well-preserved shorelines in Estancia basin and a relatively simple hydrologic setting have prompted several inquiries into the basin's hydrologic balance for the purpose of estimating regional precipitation during the late Pleistocene. Estimates have ranged from 86% to 150% of modern, the disparity largely the result of assumptions about past temperatures. In this study, we use an array of models for surface-water runoff, groundwater flow, and lake energy balance to examine previously proposed scenarios for late Pleistocene climate. Constraints imposed by geologic evidence of past lake levels indicate that precipitation for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) may have doubled relative to modern values during brief episodes of colder and wetter climate and that annual runoff was as much as 15% of annual precipitation during these episodes.     

The Characteristic Analysis and Seismic Triggering Study of the M6.2 and M6.1 Dayao Earthquake Sequences in 2003

INTRODUCTIONTheM6·2 andM6·1 earthquakes occurred successivelyin Dayao,Yunnan Province on July 21and October 16 ,2003 and bothinduced human casualty and economic loss to some extent .Adequatehistorical information reveals that ,earthquakes bigger thanM6·0 in Yunnan are distributed mainlyalong some active tectonic faults and seismic belts . Dayao and Yao an are in the Dianzhong tectonicblock andthere are noapparentfaultsthere(Su Youjing,2004) .Seismic activitylevel inthisregioniswea…     

Implications for the water level change triggered moderate (M ≥ 4.0) earthquakes in Lake Van basin, Eastern Turkey

The water level in Lake Van has shown alternating rises and decreases in history, causing economical, environmental and social problems over the littoral area. The water level changes were obtained to be in the order of 100 m between 18000 and 1000 B.C., in the order of 10 m between 1000 B.C. and 500 A.D. and relatively stable and fluctuating in the order of a few metres during the past 1500 years. The most recent change of the water level took place between 1987 and 1996, during which the water level increased episodically about 2 m and its altitude changed from approximately 1648.3 m to about 1650.2 m. All these changes were mainly related to climate changes. In this study, the water level changes in the lake after 1860 are compared with the seismic activity of faults lying close to the basin. Temporal correlations of seismicity with the water level changes are very persuasive and dramatic, indicating hydrogeological triggering of the earthquakes. This study shows that 14 M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes and increasing number of 4.0 ≤ M < 5.0 earthquakes accompanied or followed the dramatic (about 1 m or larger) changes of the annual mean of the water level in the lake and that there was a tendency of M ≥ 4 earthquakes to occur between November and February, during which the lake level is low within a year.     

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, Japan

We found a characteristic space–time pattern of the tidal triggering effect on earthquake occurrence in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, central Japan, where a large interplate earthquake may be impending. We measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence using microearthquakes that took place in the Philippine Sea plate for about two decades. For each event, we assigned the tidal phase angle at the origin time by theoretically calculating the tidal shear stress on the fault plane. Based on the distribution of the tidal phase angles, we statistically tested whether they concentrate near some particular angle or not by using Schuster's test. In this test, the result is evaluated by p-value, which represents the significance level to reject the null hypothesis that earthquakes occur randomly irrespective of the tidal phase angle. As a result of analysis, no correlation was found for the data set including all the earthquakes. However, we found a systematic pattern in the temporal variation of the tidal effect; the p-value significantly decreased preceding the occurrence of M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes, and it recovered a high level afterwards. We note that those M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes were considerably larger than the normal background seismicity in the study area. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak at the phase angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This indicates that the observed small p-value is a physical consequence of the tidal effect. We also found a distinctive feature in the spatial distribution of p-values. The small p-values appeared just beneath the strongly coupled portion of the plate interface, as inferred from the seismicity rate change in the past few years.     

The impact of different spatial land cover data sets on the outputs of a hydrological model - a modelling exercise in the Ucker catchment, North-East Germany

The spatial distribution of forests, meadows, arable land, water bodies and settlements in a catchment influences the spatial and temporal dynamics of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil moisture and ground water recharge. Four digital data sets from different sources were available for land cover distribution to be applied in a regional case study in the Ucker catchment with an area of about 2415 km². The first data set was obtained from the German digital topographic data set “Atkis” and the second one from the federal German biotope mapping procedure “Biotoptypenkartierung”. In addition, Corine land cover data and a land cover obtained from a supervised, multitemporal classification of three Landsat-TM5-scenes from the year 2000 were used in our study. These data sets differ in spatial resolution and in information content and this leads to different areal proportions of the main land cover classes forests, meadows, arable land, water bodies and settlements. This has to be considered as an uncertainty in the land cover data. In our case study, we analyzed how and to which extent this uncertainty influences the outputs of a hydrological catchment model such as evapotranspiration and discharge. For the time period 1996-2001, meteorological time series were obtained from four meteorological stations and five additional precipitation stations. Measured daily discharge rates were available from two gauges located in the catchment. In the different land cover data sets, the proportions of arable land ranged from 52.7% to 61.7% of the catchment area and for forests from 19.5% to 24.6%. These different proportions showed only minor impacts with small differences below ±10 mm y⁻¹ on the simulated annual rates of evapotranspiration and ground water recharge. In contrast, the simulated surface runoff rates showed a strong correlation to the amount of the settlement areas in the catchment. The highest proportion of settlements with 4.9% of the catchment area in comparison to the lowest proportion of 2.9% leads to an increase in the simulated surface runoff of 70%.     

应力场演化与强震间相互作用的有限元模拟研究

针对川滇地区,在大量搜集前人资料和结果的基础上,建立了包括上地壳、中地壳、下地壳、上地幔等4层结构的三维有限元模型。通过反复调试,确定了其边界条件。然后计算了川滇地区背景应力场、断层蠕动产生的应力场和强震触发的应力场,以及它们的动态变化。结果表明后续地震大多发生在前面地震引发的库仑破裂应力正值区,前一地震对后续地震有一定的触发作用,强震是在较高的应力背景下成组发生的。这对判断、识别地震异常,提高地震预测水平有着很大的意义。     

河口环境变异与水文模拟计算初探--以珠江河口网河区为例

“９４·６”华南大水,珠江三角洲网河的顺德、番禺洪水水位异高,引发对网河及近岸环境变异的探讨。近年来,河口网河区的资源开发、环境变异引起各界的关注。河口网河区河床变化,水文环境发生变异。利用人工神经网络（ＡＮＮ）,对网河水位过程进行非线性模拟,输入径流与进流资料,以历史长序列与近年实测资料训练模型和检验,认为ＡＮＮ较适应于网河高度非线性水文模拟,也较适应于环境受到人类活动冲击的河口水文模拟;在河口