Prediction of local ore recoveries and ore-waste ratios at the silver bell uranium mine

Geostatistical estimation techniques were customized to allow forecasting of production figures at the Silver Bell uranium mine (Uravan District).Surface drill hole data were used to provide a block model of kriged estimators of average uranium grades. Figures for recoverable ore grade and the ore-waste ratio are then deduced from regressive curves previously obtained from underground information and production data. Cross-validations of the entire model were performed and were found positive.     

东川泥石流站开放以来的回顾与展望

本文扼要介绍了中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站对外开放三年来,在泥石流观测试验研究和防灾减灾工作中的新进展,同时也简述了站设基金课题、国家基金课题和中外合作交流项目的进展情况,并对今后的观测研究工作提出了展望和建议。     

Dynamics of co-ignimbrite plumes generated from pyroclastic flows of Mount St. Helens (7 August 1980)

 Four co-ignimbrite plumes were generated along the flow path of the pyroclastic flow of 7 August 1980 at Mount St. Helens. Three of the plumes were generated in discrete pulses which can be linked to changes in slope along the channel. One plume was generated at the mouth of the channel where the flow decelerated markedly as it moved onto the lower slopes of the pumice plain. Plume generation here may be triggered by enhanced mixing due to a hydraulic jump associated with an abrupt slope change. Measurements of plume ascent velocity and width show that the co-ignimbrite plumes increased in velocity with height. The plumes have initial velocities of 1–2 m/s. Two of the plumes reached a velocity maximum (4.6 and 8.8 m/s, respectively, at heights of 270 and 315 m above the flow) and thereafter decelerated. The other plumes reached velocities of 6.2 and 13 m/s. The four plumes become systematically less energetic downstream as measured by their ascent rates, which can be interpreted as a consequence of decreasing interaction of the pyroclastic flow front with the atmosphere. Theoretical models of both co-ignimbrite plumes and discrete co-ignimbrite clouds assume that there is no initial momentum, and both are able to predict the observed acceleration stage. The rising plumes mix with and heat air and sediment out particles causing their buoyancy to increase. Theoretical models agree well with observations and suggest that the initial motion of the ascending material is best described as a discrete thermal cloud which expands as it entrains air, whereas the subsequent motion of the head may become influenced by material supplied from the following plume. The models agree well with observations for an initial temperature of the ash and air mixture in the range of 500–600 K, which is in turn consistent with the measured initial ash temperature of around 920 K. Ash masses of 3.4×10⁵ to 1.8×10⁶ kg are estimated. Received: 11 January 1996 / Accepted: 7 October 1996     

RBF神经网络的汛期旱涝预报方法研究

分析广州2003年1～6月的SO2、NO2和PM10指数,发现(1)SO2、NO2和PM10具有非常好的同步变化关系,且以NO2和PM10的相关最大。(2)从月平均值来看,PM10是整个时段的主要污染物,SO2次之,NO2最小(1月除外);PM10和NO2呈现出逐月减小趋势,SO2变化平稳。主要讨论PM10指数的变化。(3)从月方差值来看,SO2、NO2和PM10的最大值均在1月,次大值在2月。(4)给出了几种地面气压型,结论显示主要清洁时段出现在锋区强风型,主要污染时段出现在脊内回流型。在脊内回流型下,若由前期的静风转吹东南(从东到南)风时,指数会增大。     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: VII. Carbonate isotope geochemistry as a record of riverine runoff

Evaporation dominates the removal of water from Lake Tanganyika, and therefore the oxygen isotope composition of lake water has become very positive in comparison to the waters entering the lake. The surface water in Lake Tanganyika has remained relatively unchanged over the last 30 years with a seasonal range of +3.2 to +3.5 VSMOW. Water from small rivers entering the lake seems to have a ¹⁸O value between –3.5 and –4.0, based on scattered measurements. The two largest catchments emptying into the lake deliver water that has a ¹⁸O value between these two extremes. This large contrast is the basis of a model presented here that attempts to reconstruct the history of runoff intensity based on the ¹⁸O of carbonate shells from Lake Tanganyika cores. In order to use biogenic carbonates to monitor changes in the ¹⁸O of mixing-zone water, however, the oxygen isotope fractionation between water and shell carbonate must be well understood. The relatively invariant environmental conditions of the lake allow us to constrain the fractionation of both oxygen and carbon isotope ratios. Although molluskan aragonitic shell ¹⁸O values are in agreement with published mineral-water fractionations, ostracode calcite is 1.2 more positive than that of inorganic calcite precipitated under similar conditions. Ostracode shell ¹⁸O data from two cores from central Lake Tanganyika suggest that runoff decreased in the first half of this millennium and has increased in the last century. This conclusion is poorly constrained, however, and much more work needs to be done on stable isotope variation in both the waters and carbonates of Lake Tanganyika. We also compared the ¹³C of shells against predicted values based solely on the ¹³C of lake water dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The ostracode Mecynocypria opaca is the only ostracode or mollusk that falls within the predicted range. This suggests that M. opaca has potential for reconstructing the carbon isotope ratio of DIC in Lake Tanganyika, and may be a useful tool in the study of the history of the lakes productivity and carbon cycle.     

昆仑山玉龙喀什河最大洪峰出现日期的灰色预测

玉龙喀什河是昆仑山北坡最大的河流——和田河的主要支流。玉龙喀什河同古孜洛克水文站夏洪严重。因此预测最大洪峰出现日期是十分有意义的。用灰色系统理论来预测最大洪峰出现日期,是以原始数据为基础,按累加生成,建立GM(1,1)模型,并通过模型求出平滑度,进而作相对误差检验,合格后再作预测。经过检验,预测基本上符合实际。     

台风"尼伯特"在北部湾海面上减弱分析

通过对2003年台风"尼伯特"周围的风向、风速在铅直方向的垂直变化和垂直速度、散度场等物理量的变化分析,发现台风周围的风向、风速的垂直切变增大和上升运动的迅速减弱改变了台风的暖心结构,是造成台风"尼伯特"在北部湾海面上迅速减弱的主要原因.     

A constitutive-relationship model for film flow on rough fracture surfaces

Film flow on fracture surfaces may be an important mechanism for fast flow in unsaturated fractured rocks. Incorporating this mechanism into a numerical model requires knowledge of constitutive relationships for film flow. Based on fractal concepts and a conceptual argument of Tokunaga et al. that water films could be treated as analogues to water in unsaturated porous media, a simple constitutive-relationship model has been developed. The validity of the model is supported by excellent agreements between calculation results and experimental observations for two different fracture surfaces.

---

Resumen El flujo pelicular en la superficie de las fracturas puede ser un mecanismo importante para el flujo rápido en rocas fracturadas no saturadas. Incorporarlo en un modelo numérico requiere conocer las relaciones constitutivas del flujo pelicular. Se ha desarrollado un modelo de una relación constitutiva sencilla partiendo de conceptos fractales y de un argumento conceptual de Tokunaga et al., según el cual las películas de agua pueden ser tratadas como análogos del agua en medios porosos no saturados. La validez del modelo es corroborada por los excelentes ajustes entre los resultados numéricos y las observaciones experimentales en dos superficies de fracturas diferentes.

---

Résumé Lécoulement en film sur les surfaces de fracture peut être un mécanisme important pour lécoulement rapide dans les roches fracturées non saturées. Lincorporation de ce mécanisme dans un modèle numérique nécessite la connaissance des relations fondamentales pour lécoulement en film. Basé sur des concepts fractals et sur un argument conceptuel de Tokunaga et al. selon lequel des films deau peuvent être considérés comme des analogues de leau en milieu poreux non saturé, un modèle simple des relations fondamentales a été développé. La validité de ce modèle est confirmée grâce à une excellente concordance entre les résultats du calcul et les observations expérimentales pour deux surfaces différentes de fractures.

     

Expériences de drainage et estimation de paramètres en milieu poreux non saturé

Two drainage experiments were carried out to identify the hydraulic parameters of a quartz sand by using inverse modelling. Our results, based on sensitivity and error analyses, show that (i) water content measurements are essential to estimate the parameters of the van Genuchten–Mualem retention curve, (ii) the saturated conductivity ($K_{\mathrm{s}}$) has a low sensitivity to pressure data and is not sensitive to other measures (water content and measured outflow), (iii) the inverse approach can be verified by comparing the simulated outflow to the measured one. To cite this article: H. Beydoun, F. Lehmann, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

基于小波分析的汾河河津站径流与输沙的多时间尺度特征

基于汾河流域19个气象台站1959~2005年的月均降水量、河津站的径流量和输沙量资料,借助小波分析方法研究了降水、径流与输沙序列的多时间尺度特征及它们的耦合关系。结果表明:降水、径流与输沙量具有2~4a、14~18 a左右2个不同尺度的周期变化,且三者的主周期基本一致,即3 a和16 a;3 a尺度上,3个要素曲线的正、负位相交替频繁,突变点较多,且曲线变化除个别时段发生紊乱外基本上保持同步性;16 a尺度上,突变点较少,3条曲线的正、负位相交替相应减少且出现不同步现象。降水、径流与输沙量曲线发生趋势变化及出现不同步现象的原因包括自然因素和人类活动,而后者是其主要影响因素。