石河子夏季高温过程的环流特征分析

应用1994—2003年NCEP逐日再分析资料,对石河子地区10a夏季出现的10次持续性高温天气过程进行了综合分析,总结了石河子地区高温天气的主要环流及相关物理量的特征,提出了石河子地区夏季高温天气的预报模型。     

凤山县地质灾害统计分析及预报方法

通过对凤山县地质灾害统计分析，提出了降雨是诱发地质灾害的主要因素，建立地质灾害气象条件等级预报的简易方法。     

博尔塔拉河温泉水文站输沙率与流量异步施测法分析

在悬移质输沙率与流量异步施测法基本原理分析的基础上,根据河流特性建立了多年综合及相邻流量测次累积面积百分数与累积流量百分数相关曲线法不同的部分流量权重系数借用方案。经实测资料检验输沙率与流量异步施测法的计算误差符合《河流悬移质泥沙测验规范》精度要求,能满足悬移质泥沙测验的生产需求。     

Traffic Assignment Forecast Model Research in ITS

As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast model, multi-ways probability and capacity constraint (MPCC) is presented. Using the new traffic as- signment forecast model to forecast the traffic volume will improve the rationality and veracity of traffic as- signment forecast.     

德国降水预报产品的应用和检验

利用德国降水预报输出的24和48h降水预报产品,对2005年1—12月巴音郭楞蒙古自治州(简称巴州,下同)9个气象站分别进行了降水预报效果的检验分析,统计分析其在各月、各季、年的降水预报能力,得出其空报率较大,准确率和漏报率较低,但对巴州南部地区的大降水天气有一定的指导意义。     

基于PPP技术的GPS浮标海啸预警模拟研究

提出了利用精密单点定位（precise point positioning,PPP）技术进行海啸预警的方法,并利用TriP软件对实测浮标数据进行了处理,将得出的海面高数据和海啸波模型叠加进行了模拟分析。仿真结果表明,利用精密单点定位技术进行海啸预警,能够监测判断海啸的发生,并获得海啸波到达海岸的波高和时间,提供一定的预警信息。     

Numerical simulation of hydrodynamic characteristics and bedload transport in cross sections of two gravel-bed rivers based on one-dimensional lateral distribution method

Accurate evaluation and prediction of bedload transport are crucial in studies of fluvial hydrodynamic characteristics and river morphology.This paper presents a one-dimensional numerical model based on the one-dimensional lateral distribution method(1 D-LDM) and six classic bedload transport formulae that can be used to simulate hydrodynamic characteristics and bedload transport discharge in cross sections.Two gravel-bed rivers,i.e.the Danube River located approximately 70 km downstream from Bratislava in Slovakia and the Tolten River in south of Chile are used as examples.In the 1 D-LDM,gravity,bed shear stress,turbulent diffusion,and secondary flow are included to allow for accurate predictions of flow velocity and consequently bed shear stress in the cross sections.Six classic formulae were applied to evaluate the non-dimensional bedload transport rate,and the bedload transport discharge through a river cross section is obtained by integrating the bedload transport rate over the width of the cross section.The results show that the root mean square error(RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) of velocity and water discharge were less than 8% of the observed magnitude,while the correlation coefficient between model predictions and observations was close to unity.The formulae proposed by Ashida and Michiue(1972),in which particle collision with the bed is taken into account,and by Camenen and Larson(2005),which allows for yielding a non-zero bedload transport rate even when the bed shear stress is smaller than the critical bed shear stress value,appeared to be more appropriate for predicting the observed bedload transport rate in the studied cross sections of two gravel-bed rivers.If non-uniform sediment mixtures were considered,the bedload transport discharge through a cross-section could change considerably by up to 22.5% of the observed magnitude.The relations proposed by Ashida and Michiue(1972) and Egiazaroff(1965) for parameterizing the hiding factor yielded more realistic model predictions in comparison with observations for the measured data set collected for the Tolten River,while the one proposed by Wilcock and Crowe(2003) performs the best for the data set measured for the Danube River.     

Intercomparisons of land-surface parameterizations coupled to a limited area forecast model

The goal of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) is to improve the understanding of the interactions between the atmosphere and the continental surface in climate and weather forecast models. In PILPS Phase 4(b), selected schemes are coupled to the Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS) developed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. To facilitate the comparison of PILPS schemes' behavior within LAPS, a single mode of coupling is selected: explicit coupling. This type of coupling is more flexible and avoids most of the problems raised when interchanging the surface schemes. Exploratory tests are conducted. Initially, experiments are run in which the land-surface schemes use the same parameters as in their original host models. Then, in other runs, the most important surface parameters are set constant in an attempt to reduce the scatter amongst the schemes' results. In order to understand the impact of initialisation of soil moisture on the schemes' results some extreme cases (wet and dry) are performed. The partitioning between surface fluxes is studied as well as the soil moisture budget. Both regional and local results are analysed. Sensitivity between LSS is found in the precipitation field with rainfall over the Australian continent altering by about 20%, but no significant change is found in the net radiation. The scatter in the surface energy fluxes amongst the schemes is large (up to 300 W m⁻² locally, during the daytime peak) but is seldom affected by the choice of surface parameters. The dynamical range of flux partitioning between extremely dry and wet initialisation varies strongly amongst the schemes. Some major shortcoming with the BUCKET approach are seen in the re-evaporation of convective precipitation over dry land, in the very large evaporation from wet surfaces and the diurnal cycle of surface temperature.     

参数调整对气象预测的B-P网络模型性能的影响

为了探索ＢＰ网络的参数调整特性,进行了参数α、β的选取对ＢＰ算法的收敛速度和模型的稳定性的影响研究。通过ＢＰ网络用于气象预测建模的参数调整个例分析表明：参数α、β的取值对ＢＰ模型的稳定性无显著影响,但参数值的调整尤其是β值的调整对建模的收敛速度有明显的影响。     

基于神经网络的滑坡变形预测报研究

利用ＢＰ神经网络方法建立了滑坡变形预报模型,在此模型的基础上对几个典型滑坡进行了预报分析,其结果表明用ＢＰ模型进行滑坡短期预报效果较好。