Hydraulic properties of the crystalline basement

Hydraulic tests in boreholes, up to 4.5 km deep, drilled into continental crystalline basement revealed hydraulic conductivity (K) values that range over nine log-units from 10⁻¹³−10⁻⁴ m s⁻¹. However, K values for fractured basement to about 1 km depth are typically restricted to the range from 10⁻⁸ to 10⁻⁶ m s⁻¹. New data from an extended injection test at the KTB research site (part of the Continental Deep Drilling Program in Germany) at 4 km depth provide K=5 10⁻⁸ m s⁻¹. The summarized K-data show a very strong dependence on lithology and on the local deformation history of a particular area. In highly fractured regions, granite tends to be more pervious than gneiss. The fracture porosity is generally saturated with Na–Cl or Ca–Na–Cl type waters with salinities ranging from <1 to >100 g L⁻¹. The basement permeability is well within the conditions for advective fluid and heat transport. Consequently, fluid pressure is hydrostatic and a Darcy flow mechanism is possible to a great depth. Topography-related hydraulic gradients in moderately conductive basement may result in characteristic advective flow rates of up to 100 L a⁻¹ m⁻² and lead to significant advective heat and solute transfer in the upper brittle crust. An erratum to this article can be found at     

How can the epikarst zone influence the karst aquifer hydraulic behaviour?

The role of an epikarst zone in the karst aquifer hydraulic behaviour was brought into focus in our studies referring to the catchment area of the Hubelj spring (SW Slovenia). This study points out the significance of effects of the fast preferential flow—epiflow, which is the main factor controlling solute/contaminant transport towards the aquifer saturated zone. The so-called epikarstic hypothesis is verified on the basis of the most significant research results that are supported by the most important findings from the literature.     

利用天气数值预报产品建立贵州黔西南州分县温度预报方程的方法及应用

利用2002～2004年1～12月EC、T213天气数值产品的温度格点实时分析资料、预报资料以及贵州省黔西南州8个测站观测资料,从160个样本中筛选出相关较好的因子,利用多元回归统计模型,以及根据地理环境,天气形势分型造成的温度差值(ΔT)为逐步订正值,建立黔西南州分县温度预报方程。在2005年11月～2006年2月应用中取得较好效果,预报误差小于±3.0℃,平均误差1.3℃。     

Crustal Stress Measurement for Significant Project Construction and Its Application in Design

The hydrofracturing technique has developed into a reliable and practical method for determining the original three-dimensional crustal stress state of underground caverns,the load-bearing capacity of a high pressure cavern itself,and the high pressure hydraulic permeability of rock masses,and has also been extensively used in disposal of nuclear waste,long and deeply-buried traffic channels and high-pressure cavern engineering for hydraulic power plants.The practice shows that the comprehensive measurement of the physical parameters of the rock mass and taking full use of the wall rock load-bearing capacity to optimize the engineering design hold are very useful in ensuring the engineering safety and improving the design level.     

统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。     

Experimental Seasonal Forecast of Monsoon 2005 Using T170L42 AGCM on PARAM Padma

As a part of the Experimental Extended Range Monsoon Prediction Experiment, ensemble mode seasonal runs for the monsoon season of 2005 were made using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), T170L42 AGCM. The seasonal runs were made using six initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP operational analysis and with forecast monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) of the NCEP Coupled forecast system (CFS). These simulations were carried out on the PARAM Padma supercomputer of Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India. The model climatology was prepared by integrating the model for ten years using climatological SST as the lower boundary. The climatology of the model compares well with the observed, in terms of the spatial distribution of rainfall over the Indian land mass. The model-simulated rainfall compares well with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates for the 2005 monsoon season. Compared to the model climatology (7.81 mm/day), the model had simulated a normal rainfall (7.75 mm/day) for the year 2005 which is in agreement with the observations (99% of long-term mean). However, the model could not capture the observed increase in September rainfall from that of a low value in August 2005. The circulation patterns simulated by the model are also comparable to the observed patterns. The ensemble mean onset is found to be nearer to the observed onset date within one pentad.     

兰州市空气质量预报系统结构及效果检验

文中从潜势预报、浓度预报、统计预报和数值预报 4方面介绍了兰州市空气质量预报业务系统的研究方法和结构特点。对 2 0 0 1年 4～ 10月兰州市空气质量预报与日报 (实况 )进行了分析研究 ,结果表明 ,该系统对兰州市空气质量预报有较强的预报能力 ,适用于兰州市空气质量预报业务。     

“9.18”川西北暴雨过程的数值预报与试验

利用成都区域中心ETA坐标模式，对2001年9月18－21日发生在四川盆地西北部的暴雨过程作数值预报试验，显示出对大暴雨过程的预报能力。模式预报对此降水过程雨区的移动、稳定、减弱趋势有较好的反应，但降水强度预报偏弱，且落区有偏差。数值试验揭示了降水前期对流层中、低层的西南、东南气流对降水的重要作用，而北方冷空气的强弱对此影响不明显。     

利用滚动式相关分析方法普查历史资料初探

介绍了一种新的普查历史资料的方法－滚动式相关分析方法，并将滚动相关分析法与一般相关分析法的相关分析结果进行了对比分析。结果表明，滚动式相关分析方法提高了相关稳定性，预报效果优于一般相关分析法。     

石家庄市采暖期气象服务系统

在采暖期内为了做到既能让人们感到冷暖适宜，又能合理地减少采暖期内的采暖能源浪费，该文对石家庄市采暖期气象条件进行了详细分析，建立了与气象预报相结合的采暖气象服务系统，实际应用效果良好。