质点-网格海冰模式在渤海的数值预报试验

在海冰动力学和热力学的研究基础上,开发应用于渤海的质点-网格海冰模式.该模式采用质点-网格法,有效地避免了传统海冰模式的数值扩散问题.该模式采用冰厚分布函数取代传统渤海业务海冰预报模式中平整冰、堆积冰和开阔水的三类海冰分型.应用质点-网格海冰模式对2003年～2004年冬季渤海冰情进行了业务化逐日数值预报试验,并对预报结果进行统计检验和分析比较.     

苏北浅滩海底地下水排放及其对海域营养盐通量的贡献

海底地下水排放(SGD)是近海海域的一个重要的营养盐来源。本研究借助多种天然镭同位素对春季苏北浅滩海域的SGD及其携带入海的营养盐通量进行量化评估。研究发现:苏北浅滩海域的~(224)Ra、~(223)Ra和~(226)Ra等镭同位素的浓度水平较高,呈现近岸高、远岸低的分布趋势;根据~(224)Ra/~(226)Ra的"表观年龄模型"估算的水龄的分布情况推断,春季该海域表层水体主体流向为东北向,流速约为0.1m/s,这与前人物理海洋数值模拟结果一致;最终利用226Ra质量平衡模型发现海域的SGD通量为(46±29)cm/d,由其携带入海的溶解态无机氮、磷、硅营养盐(DIN、 DIP、 DSi)等的通量分别为(2.6±3.1)×1~09、(3.0±2.5)×10~6和(5.5±4.2)×10~8mol/d。     

Calibration and use of continuous heat-type automated seepage meters for submarine groundwater discharge measurements

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) assessments were conducted both in the laboratory and at a field site in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, using a continuous heat-type automated seepage meter (seepmeter). The functioning of the seepmeter is based on measurements of a temperature gradient in the water between downstream and upstream positions in its flow pipe. The device has the potential of providing long-term, high-resolution measurements of SGD. Using a simple inexpensive laboratory set-up, we have shown that connecting an extension cable to the seepmeter has a negligible effect on its measuring capability. Similarly, the observed influence of very low temperature (≤3 °C) on seepmeter measurements can be accounted for by conducting calibrations at such temperatures prior to field deployments. Compared to manual volumetric measurements, calibration experiments showed that at higher water flow rates (>28 cm day⁻¹ or cm³ cm⁻² day⁻¹) an analog flowmeter overestimated flow rates by ≥7%. This was apparently due to flow resistance, turbulence and formation of air bubbles in the seepmeter water flow tubes. Salinity had no significant effect on the performance of the seepmeter. Calibration results from fresh water and sea water showed close agreement at a 95% confidence level significance between the data sets from the two media (R² = 0.98). Comparatively, the seepmeter SGD measurements provided data that are comparable to manually-operated seepage meters, the radon geochemical tracer approach, and an electromagnetic (EM) seepage meter.     

The divergent environmental characteristics of permanently-open,seasonally-open and normally-closed estuaries of south-western Australia

This study has compared the environmental characteristics of the basins and saline lower reaches of the tributaries of eight estuaries on the south coast of Western Australia, which differ in their degree of connectivity with the ocean. Although four estuaries between 115.1° and 121.8° E along that coast remain permanently open to the ocean, the others only become open when the volume of river discharge is sufficient to breach the prominent sand bars at their mouths, which occurs annually following heavy winter and early spring rainfall in some estuaries (seasonally open) and infrequently in others (normally closed). Estuaries to the west of 118.5° E are predominantly permanently open, e.g. Oyster Harbour, or seasonally open, e.g. Broke, Irwin and Wilson inlets, whereas those further east, e.g. Wellstead Estuary and Hamersley, Culham and Stokes inlets, where annual rainfall and thus discharge are much lower, only become open after exceptionally heavy discharge. In permanently and seasonally-open estuaries, pronounced haloclines and oxyclines are present in the narrow rivers but not the wide basins where the waters are subjected to wind-driven mixing. The extent of cyclical seasonal fluctuations in environmental conditions differed markedly among the three seasonally-open estuaries and between years in one of those systems. These differences reflected variations in the relationship between the volume of fluvial discharge, which is determined by a combination of the amount of local rainfall, catchment size and extent of clearing of native vegetation, and the amount of intrusion by marine waters, which is largely controlled by the size and duration of the opening of the estuary mouth. The mean seasonal salinities in the basins of the three normally-closed estuaries increased over three years of very low rainfall to 64 in the deepest of these estuaries (Stokes Inlet) to 145 in Hamersley Inlet and to 296 in the shallowest estuary (Culham Inlet). These results demonstrate that the environmental characteristics of estuaries on the south coast of Western Australia differ markedly, even among those of the same type, e.g. seasonally-open estuaries or normally-closed estuaries.     

Large-scale laboratory measurements of solitary wave inundation on a 1:20 slope

The run-up flow and related pressure of solitary waves breaking on a 1:20 plane beach were investigated experimentally in a super tank (300 m × 5 m × 5.2 m). Swash flow measurements of flow velocities are compared with an existing analytical solution. By incorporating an analytical solution, the hydrodynamic pressure for a quasi-steady flow state is determined and compared with laboratory data. Concerning the evident extra pressure exerted by the impact of swash flow, an empirical drag coefficient for a circular plate is also suggested in the present study.     

指数平滑模型在日本珍珠产量预测中的应用

为了准确地研判日本珍珠产业发展势态,科学地确立中国珍珠产业发展目标,有效地制定中国珍珠产业发展政策,采用EVIEWS5.0软件构建了指数平滑模型,并对日本2008～2015年的珍珠产量进行了预测,预测结果显示日本的珍珠产量持续下降,到2015年日本的珍珠产量达到12.35 t.     

武汉区域气象中心数值预报业务并行计算机系统

对武汉区域气象中心并行计算机系统进行了详细地介绍，分析了并行计算机体系结构、网络和存储系统特点；给出了在并行计算机SP上实现数值预报业务并行化的部分结果；对数值预报模式在串、并行编程环境下的结果进行了分析比较。     

雅砻江流域主汛期降水长期预报的一种方法

本文使用天气学方法，从影响雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的长期预报有关因子出发，再运用数理统计方法反复筛选，仅取３个主要因子：西部青藏高原８个站冬春积温，北部冬季极涡面积指数，南部冬季印缅槽平均强度，建立逐步回归预报方程。结果显示：对主汛期６～９月降水量预报拟合准确率为１６／１７即约９４％。回归分析中发现：尽管西太平洋副热带高压对盆地西部降水有很大影响，盛夏且与高原积温有较密切相关，但由放大范围长时段的青藏高原积温，对于雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的影响超过西太平洋副热高压，因而在逐步回归过程中，副高因子仍被剔除．     

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MASNUM海浪数值模式业务化预报与检验

介绍了MASNUM(Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海浪数值预报系统,并利用全球和西北太平洋的Jason-1卫星数据和NDBC浮标数据中的海浪波高观测,对该预报系统进行了自2007年8月1日-2007年12月31日5个月的24,48和72 h预报结果的比较检验.模式校验结果表明,有效波高预报与观测的绝均差在0.5 m左右,从夏季到冬季,预报精度不断提高,与风场冬季预报精度较高吻合.